Stopping times and Wald identity for renewal processes

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Show that E[TN(t)+k]=μ(m(t)+k)\mathbb {E}\left[T_{N(t)+k}\right] = \mu (m(t)+k) for all k≥1k \geq 1, but that it is not generally true that E[TN(t)]=μm(t)\mathbb {E}\left[T_{N(t)}\right] = \mu m(t).

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Let M(t)=N(t)+1M(t) = N(t)+1, and suppose that X1X_{1} has finite non-zero variance σ2\sigma^{2}.

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(a)

Show that Var⁡[TM(t)−μM(t)]=σ2(m(t)+1)\operatorname {Var}\left[T_{M(t)}-\mu M(t)\right] = \sigma^{2}(m(t)+1).

(b)

In the non-arithmetic case, show that Var⁡[M(t)]/t→σ2/μ3\operatorname {Var}\left[M(t)\right] / t \rightarrow \sigma^{2} / \mu^{3} as t→∞t \rightarrow \infty.

Let X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of non-negative independent random variables and let N(t)=max⁡{n:X1+X2+⋯+Xn≤t}N(t) = \max \left\{ n: X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots +X_{n} \leq t\right\}. Show that N(t)+1N(t)+1 is a stopping time with respect to a suitable filtration to be specified.

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References

[GrSt20] Grimmett G.R., Stirzaker D.R. Probability and Random Processes. 4th ed., Oxford University Press, 2020.