Section 12.4

Stopping times

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Problem 12.4.1

If T1T_{1} and T2T_{2} are stopping times with respect to a filtration F\mathcal{F}, show that T1+T2,max⁡{T1,T2}T_{1}+T_{2}, \max \left\{ T_{1}, T_{2}\right\}, and min⁡{T1,T2}\min \left\{ T_{1}, T_{2}\right\} are stopping times also.

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Problem 12.4.2

Let X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of non-negative independent random variables and let N(t)=max⁡{n:X1+X2+⋯+Xn≤t}N(t) = \max \left\{ n: X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots +X_{n} \leq t\right\}. Show that N(t)+1N(t)+1 is a stopping time with respect to a suitable filtration to be specified.

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Problem 12.4.3

Let (Y,F)(Y, \mathcal{F}) be a submartingale and x>0x > 0. Show that

P(max⁡0≤m≤nYm≥x)≤1xE[Yn+] \mathbb {P}\left(\max _{0 \leq m \leq n} Y_{m} \geq x\right) \leq \frac{1}{x} \mathbb {E}\left[Y_{n}^{+}\right]
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Problem 12.4.4

Let (Y,F)(Y, \mathscr {F}) be a non-negative supermartingale and x>0x > 0. Show that

P(max⁡0≤m≤nYm≥x)≤1xE[Y0] \mathbb {P}\left(\max _{0 \leq m \leq n} Y_{m} \geq x\right) \leq \frac{1}{x} \mathbb {E}\left[Y_{0}\right]
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Problem 12.4.5

Let (Y,F)(Y, \mathscr {F}) be a submartingale and let SS and TT be stopping times satisfying 0≤S≤T≤N0 \leq S \leq T \leq N for some deterministic NN. Show that E[Y0]≤E[YS]≤E[YT]≤E[YN]\mathbb {E}\left[Y_{0}\right] \leq \mathbb {E}\left[Y_{S}\right] \leq \mathbb {E}\left[Y_{T}\right] \leq \mathbb {E}\left[Y_{N}\right].

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Problem 12.4.6

Let {Sn}\left\{ S_{n}\right\} be a simple random walk with S0=0S_{0} = 0 such that 0<p=P(S1=1)<120 < p = \mathbb {P}\left(S_{1} = 1\right) < \frac{1}{2}. Use de Moivre's martingale to show that E[sup⁡mSm]≤p/(1−2p)\mathbb {E}\left[\sup_{m} S_{m}\right] \leq p /(1-2 p). Show further that this inequality may be replaced by an equality.

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Problem 12.4.7

Let F\mathcal{F} be a filtration. For any stopping time TT with respect to F\mathcal{F}, denote by FT\mathcal{F}_{T} the collection of all events AA such that, for all n,A∩{T≤n}∈Fnn, A \cap \left\{ T \leq n\right\} \in \mathcal{F}_{n}. Let SS and TT be stopping times.

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(a)

Show that FT\mathcal{F}_{T} is a σ\sigma-field, and that TT is measurable with respect to this σ\sigma-field.

(b)

If A∈FSA \in \mathcal{F}_{S}, show that A∩{S≤T}∈FTA \cap \left\{ S \leq T\right\} \in \mathcal{F}_{T}.

(c)

Let SS and TT satisfy S≤TS \leq T. Show that FS⊆FT\mathcal{F}_{S} \subseteq \mathcal{F}_{T}.

Problem 12.4.8
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(a)

Let TT be a stopping time for an exchangeable sequence X1,X2,…,XnX_1, X_2, \ldots , X_n. Show that, if P(T≤n−r)=1\mathbb {P}\left(T \leq n-r\right)=1, then the random vector (XT+1,XT+2,…,XT+r)(X_{T+1}, X_{T+2}, \ldots , X_{T+r}) has the same distribution as (X1,X2,…,Xr)\left(X_1, X_2, \ldots , X_r\right).

(b)

An urn contains vv violet balls and ww white balls, which are drawn at random without replacement. Let m<wm<w, and let TT be the number of the draw at which the mm th white ball is drawn. What is the probability that the next ball is white?