Section 10.3

Excess life

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Problem 10.3.1

Suppose that the distribution of the excess lifetime E(t)E(t) does not depend on tt. Show that the renewal process is a Poisson process.

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Problem 10.3.2

Show that the following are Markov processes:

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(a)

the excess lifetime process E(t)E(t),

(b)

the current lifetime process C(t)C(t).

Problem 10.3.3

Suppose that X1X_{1} is non-arithmetic with finite mean μ\mu.

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(a)

Show that E(t)E(t) converges in distribution as t→∞t \rightarrow \infty, the limit distribution function being

H(x)=∫0x1μ[1−F(y)]dy H(x) = \int _{0}^{x} \frac{1}{\mu }[1-F(y)] d y
(b)

Show that the rr th moment of this limit distribution is given by

∫0∞xrdH(x)=E[X1r+1]μ(r+1) \int _{0}^{\infty } x^{r} d H(x) = \frac{\mathbb {E}\left[X_{1}^{r+1}\right]}{\mu (r+1)}

assuming that this is finite.

(c)

Show that

E[E(t)r]=E[{(X1−t)+}r]+∫0th(t−x)dm(x) \mathbb {E}\left[E(t)^{r}\right] = \mathbb {E}\left[\left\{ \left(X_{1}-t\right)^{+}\right\} ^{r}\right]+\int _{0}^{t} h(t-x) d m(x)

for some suitable function hh to be found, and deduce by the key renewal theorem that E[E(t)r]→E[X1r+1]/{μ(r+1)}\mathbb {E}\left[E(t)^{r}\right] \rightarrow \mathbb {E}\left[X_{1}^{r+1}\right] /\left\{ \mu (r+1)\right\} as t→∞t \rightarrow \infty, assuming this limit is finite.

Problem 10.3.4

Find an expression for the mean value of the excess lifetime E(t)E(t) conditional on the event that the current lifetime C(t)C(t) equals xx.

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Problem 10.3.5

Let M(t)=N(t)+1M(t) = N(t)+1, and suppose that X1X_{1} has finite non-zero variance σ2\sigma^{2}.

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(a)

Show that Var⁡[TM(t)−μM(t)]=σ2(m(t)+1)\operatorname {Var}\left[T_{M(t)}-\mu M(t)\right] = \sigma^{2}(m(t)+1).

(b)

In the non-arithmetic case, show that Var⁡[M(t)]/t→σ2/μ3\operatorname {Var}\left[M(t)\right] / t \rightarrow \sigma^{2} / \mu^{3} as t→∞t \rightarrow \infty.