Section 6.9

Continuous-time Markov chains

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Problem 6.9.1

Let λμ>0\lambda \mu > 0 and let XX be a Markov chain on {1,2}\left\{ 1,2\right\} with generator

G=[−μμλ−λ] \mathbf{G} =\left[\begin{smallmatrix} -\mu & \mu \\ \lambda & -\lambda \end{smallmatrix}\right]
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(a)

Write down the forward equations and solve them for the transition probabilities pij(t),i,j=p_{i j}(t), i, j = 1,2.

(b)

Calculate Gn\mathbf{G}^{n} and hence find ∑n=0∞(tn/n!)Gn\sum_{n = 0}^{\infty }\left(t^{n} / n!\right) \mathbf{G}^{n}. Compare your answer with that to part (a).

(c)

Solve the equation πG=0\pi \mathbf{G} = \mathbf{0} in order to find the stationary distribution. Verify that pij(t)→πjp_{i j}(t) \rightarrow \pi_{j} as t→∞t \rightarrow \infty.

Problem 6.9.2

As a continuation of the previous exercise, find:

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(a)

P(X(t)=2∣X(0)=1,X(3t)=1)\mathbb {P}\left(X(t) = 2 \mid X(0) = 1, X(3 t) = 1\right),

(b)

P(X(t)=2∣X(0)=1,X(3t)=1,X(4t)=1)\mathbb {P}\left(X(t) = 2 \mid X(0) = 1, X(3 t) = 1, X(4 t) = 1\right).

Problem 6.9.3

Jobs arrive in a computer queue in the manner of a Poisson process with intensity λ\lambda. The central processor handles them one by one in the order of their arrival, and each has an exponentially distributed runtime with parameter μ\mu, the runtimes of different jobs being independent of each other and of the arrival process. Let X(t)X(t) be the number of jobs in the system (either running or waiting) at time tt, where X(0)=0X(0) = 0. Explain why XX is a Markov chain, and write down its generator. Show that a stationary distribution exists if and only if λ<μ\lambda < \mu, and find it in this case.

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Problem 6.9.4

Let X={X(t):t≥0}X = \left\{ X(t): t \geq 0\right\} be a Markov chain having stationary distribution π\mathbf{\pi }. We may sample XX at the times of a Poisson process: let NN be a Poisson process with intensity λ\lambda, independent of XX, and define Yn=X(Tn)Y_{n} = X\left(T_{n}\right). Show that Y={Yn:n≥0}Y = \left\{ Y_{n}: n \geq 0\right\} is a discrete-time Markov chain with the same stationary distribution as XX. (This exemplifies the 'Pasta' property: Poisson arrivals see time averages.) [The full assumption of the independence of NN and XX is not necessary for the conclusion. It suffices that {N(s):s≥t}\left\{ N(s): s \geq t\right\} be independent of {X(s):s≤t}\left\{ X(s): s \leq t\right\}, a property known as 'lack of anticipation'. It is not even necessary that XX be Markov; the Pasta property holds for many suitable ergodic processes.]

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Problem 6.9.5

Let XX be a continuous-time Markov chain with generator G\mathbf{G} satisfying gi=−gii>0g_{i} = -g_{i i} > 0 for all ii. Let HA=inf⁡{t≥0:X(t)∈A}H_{A} = \inf \left\{ t \geq 0: X(t) \in A\right\} be the hitting time of the set AA of states, and let ηj=Pj(HA<∞)\eta_{j} = \mathbb {P}_{j}\left(H_{A} < \infty \right) be the chance of ever reaching AA from jj. By using properties of the jump chain, which you may assume to be well behaved, show that ∑kgjkηk=0\sum_{k} g_{j k} \eta_{k} = 0 for j∉Aj \notin A.

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Problem 6.9.6

In continuation of the preceding exercise, let μj=Ej[HA]\mu_{j} = \mathbb {E}_{j}\left[H_{A}\right]. Show that the vector μ\mathbf{\mu } is the minimal non-negative solution of the equations

μj=0 if j∈A,1+∑k∈Sgjkμk=0 if j∉A \mu _{j} = 0 \quad \text{ if } j \in A, \quad 1+\sum _{k \in S} g_{j k} \mu _{k} = 0 \quad \text{ if } j \notin A
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Problem 6.9.7

Let XX be a continuous-time Markov chain with transition probabilities pij(t)p_{i j}(t) and define Fi=inf⁡{t>T1:X(t)=i}F_{i} = \inf \left\{ t > T_{1}: X(t) = i\right\} where T1T_{1} is the time of the first jump of XX. Show that, if gii≠0g_{i i} \neq 0, then Pi(Fi<∞)=1\mathbb {P}_{i}\left(F_{i} < \infty \right) = 1 if and only if ii is recurrent.

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Problem 6.9.8

Let XX be the simple symmetric random walk on the integers in continuous time, so that

pi,i+1(h)=pi,i−1(h)=12λh+o(h) p_{i, i+1}(h) = p_{i, i-1}(h) = \frac{1}{2} \lambda h+\mathrm{o}(h)

Show that the walk is recurrent. Let TT be the time spent visiting mm during an excursion from 0. Find the distribution of TT.

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Problem 6.9.9

Let ii be a transient state of a continuous-time Markov chain XX with X(0)=iX(0) = i. Show that the total time spent in state ii has an exponential distribution.

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Problem 6.9.10

Let XX be an asymmetric simple random walk in continuous time on the non-negative integers with retention at 00, so that

pij(h)={λh+o(h) if j=i+1,i≥0μh+o(h) if j=i−1,i≥1 p_{i j}(h) = \begin{cases} \lambda h+\mathrm{o}(h) & \text{ if } j = i+1, i \geq 0 \\ \mu h+\mathrm{o}(h) & \text{ if } j = i-1, i \geq 1\end{cases}

Suppose that X(0)=0X(0) = 0 and λ>μ\lambda > \mu. Show that the total time VrV_{r} spent in state rr is exponentially distributed with parameter λ−μ\lambda -\mu.

Assume now that X(0)X(0) has some general distribution with probability generating function GG. Find the expected amount of time spent at 0 in terms of GG.

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Problem 6.9.11

Let XX be the continuous-time Markov chain on the finite state space SS with generator G=(gij)\mathbf{G} = \left(g_{i j}\right). Show from first principles that the transition probabilities satisfy

pij(h)={1+giih+o(h) if i=jgijh+o(h) if i≠j p_{i j}(h) = \begin{cases} 1+g_{i i} h+\mathrm{o}(h) & \text{ if } i = j \\ g_{i j} h+\mathrm{o}(h) & \text{ if } i \neq j\end{cases}
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Problem 6.9.12

Let XX be a Markov chain on the integers Z\mathbb {Z} with generator satisfying gi,i−1=gi,i+1=2ig_{i, i-1} = g_{i, i+1} = 2^{i} for i∈Zi \in \mathbb {Z}, and gi,j=0g_{i, j} = 0 for other pairs (i,j)(i, j) with i≠ji \neq j. Does XX explode?

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Problem 6.9.13

A population grows subject to the threat of total annihilation. It is modelled as a Markov chain with generator G=(gij)\mathbf{G} = \left(g_{i j}\right) satisfying

gi,i+1=1i+2,i≥0gi,0=1(i+1)(i+2),i≥1 \begin{aligned} g_{i, i+1} & = \frac{1}{i+2}, & & i \geq 0 \\ g_{i, 0} & = \frac{1}{(i+1)(i+2)}, & & i \geq 1 \end{aligned}

the other off-diagonal elements of G\mathbf{G} being 0. Show that the chain is null recurrent.

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Problem 6.9.14

Let Zn=X(nh)Z_{n} = X(n h) where XX is a Markov chain and h>0h > 0. Show that ii is recurrent for ZZ if and only if it is recurrent for XX. Show that ZZ is irreducible if and only if XX is irreducible.

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