Section 6.1

Markov processes

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Problem 6.1.1

Show that any sequence of independent random variables taking values in the countable set SS is a Markov chain. Under what condition is this chain homogeneous?

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Problem 6.1.2

A die is rolled repeatedly. Which of the following are Markov chains? For those that are, supply the transition matrix.

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(a)

The largest number XnX_{n} shown up to the nnth roll.

(b)

The number NnN_{n} of sixes in nn rolls.

(c)

At time rr, the time CrC_{r} since the most recent six.

(d)

At time rr, the time BrB_{r} until the next six.

Problem 6.1.3

Let {Sn:n≥0}\left\{ S_{n}: n \geq 0\right\} be a simple random walk with S0=0S_{0} = 0, and show that Xn=∣Sn∣X_{n} = \left|S_{n}\right| defines a Markov chain; find the transition probabilities of this chain. Let Mn=max⁡{Sk:0≤k≤n}M_{n} = \max \left\{ S_{k}: 0 \leq k \leq n\right\}, and show that Yn=Mn−SnY_{n} = M_{n}-S_{n} defines a Markov chain. What happens if S0≠0S_{0} \neq 0?

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Problem 6.1.4

Let XX be a Markov chain and let {nr:r≥0}\left\{ n_{r}: r \geq 0\right\} be an unbounded increasing sequence of positive integers. Show that Yr=XnrY_{r} = X_{n_{r}} constitutes a (possibly non-homogeneous) Markov chain. Find the transition matrix of YY when nr=2rn_{r} = 2 r and XX is:

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(a)

simple random walk, and

(b)

a branching process.

Problem 6.1.5

Let XX be a Markov chain on SS, and let I:Sn→{0,1}I: S^{n} \rightarrow \left\{ 0,1\right\}. Show that the distribution of Xn,Xn+1,…X_{n}, X_{n+1}, \ldots, conditional on {I(X1,…,Xn)=1}∩{Xn=i}\left\{ I\left(X_{1}, \ldots , X_{n}\right) = 1\right\} \cap \left\{ X_{n} = i\right\}, is identical to the distribution of Xn,Xn+1,…X_{n}, X_{n+1}, \ldots conditional on {Xn=i}\left\{ X_{n} = i\right\}.

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Problem 6.1.6

Let XX be a Markov chain on SS, and let TT be a random variable taking values in {0,1,2,…}\left\{ 0,1,2, \ldots \right\} with the property that the indicator function I{T=n}I_{\left\{ T = n\right\} }, of the event that T=nT = n, is a function of the variables X1,X2,…,XnX_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{n}. Such a random variable TT is called a stopping time, and the above definition requires that it is decidable whether or not T=nT = n with a knowledge only of the past and present, X0,X1,…,XnX_{0}, X_{1}, \ldots , X_{n}, and with no further information about the future.

Show that

P(XT+m=j∣Xk=xk for 0≤k<T,XT=i)=P(XT+m=j∣XT=i) \mathbb {P}\left(X_{T+m} = j \mid X_{k} = x_{k} \text{ for } 0 \leq k < T, X_{T} = i\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(X_{T+m} = j \mid X_{T} = i\right)

for m≥0,i,j∈Sm \geq 0, i, j \in S, and all sequences (xk)\left(x_{k}\right) of states.

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Problem 6.1.7

Let XX be a Markov chain with state space SS, and suppose that h:S→Th: S \rightarrow T is one-one. Show that Yn=h(Xn)Y_{n} = h\left(X_{n}\right) defines a Markov chain on TT. Must this be so if hh is not one-one?

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Problem 6.1.8

Let XX and YY be Markov chains on the set Z\mathbb {Z} of integers.

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(a)

Is the sequence Zn=Xn+YnZ_{n} = X_{n}+Y_{n} necessarily a Markov chain?

(b)

Is ZZ a Markov chain if XX and YY are independent chains? Give a proof or a counterexample.

(c)

Show that ZZ is a Markov chain if XX and YY are independent of one another and have independent increments.

Problem 6.1.9

Let XX be a Markov chain. Which of the following are Markov chains?

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(a)

Xm+rX_{m+r} for r≥0r \geq 0.

(b)

X2mX_{2 m} for m≥0m \geq 0.

(c)

The sequence of pairs (Xn,Xn+1)\left(X_{n}, X_{n+1}\right) for n≥0n \geq 0.

Problem 6.1.10

Let XX be a Markov chain. Show that, for 1<r<n1 < r < n,

P(Xr=k∣Xi=xi for i=1,2,…,r−1,r+1…,n)=P(Xr=k∣Xr−1=xr−1,Xr+1=xr+1) \begin{aligned} & \mathbb {P}\left(X_{r} = k \mid X_{i} = x_{i} \text{ for } i = 1,2, \ldots , r-1, r+1 \ldots , n\right) \\ & = \mathbb {P}\left(X_{r} = k \mid X_{r-1} = x_{r-1}, X_{r+1} = x_{r+1}\right) \end{aligned}
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Problem 6.1.11

Let {Xn:n≥1}\left\{ X_{n}: n \geq 1\right\} be independent identically distributed integer-valued random variables. Let Sn=∑r=1nXrS_{n} = \sum_{r = 1}^{n} X_{r}, with S0=0,Yn=Xn+Xn−1S_{0} = 0, Y_{n} = X_{n}+X_{n-1} with X0=0X_{0} = 0, and Zn=∑r=0nSrZ_{n} = \sum_{r = 0}^{n} S_{r}. Which of the following constitute Markov chains:

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(a)

SnS_{n},

(b)

YnY_{n},

(c)

ZnZ_{n},

(d)

the sequence of pairs (Sn,Zn)\left(S_{n}, Z_{n}\right)?

Problem 6.1.12

A stochastic matrix P\mathbf{P} is called doubly stochastic if ∑ipij=1\sum_{i} p_{i j} = 1 for all jj. It is called sub-stochastic if ∑ipij≤1\sum_{i} p_{i j} \leq 1 for all jj. Show that, if P\mathbf{P} is stochastic (respectively, doubly stochastic, sub-stochastic), then Pn\mathbf{P}^{n} is stochastic (respectively, doubly stochastic, sub-stochastic) for all nn.

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Problem 6.1.13

Let XX be a Markov chain on the finite state space SS with transition matrix P\mathbf{P}, and let C={Cj:j∈J}\mathcal{C} = \left\{ C_{j}: j \in J\right\} be a partition of SS. Let Yn=jY_{n} = j if Xn∈CjX_{n} \in C_{j}. The chain XX is called C\mathcal{C}-lumpable if YY is a Markov chain.

Show that XX is C\mathcal{C}-lumpable if and only if, for a,b∈J,P(Xn+1∈Cb∣Xn=i)a, b \in J, \mathbb {P}\left(X_{n+1} \in C_{b} \mid X_{n} = i\right) is constant for i∈Cai \in C_{a}.

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