Section 4.6

Conditional distributions and conditional expectation

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Problem 4.6.1

A point is picked uniformly at random on the surface of a unit sphere. Writing Θ\Theta and Φ\Phi for its longitude and latitude, find the conditional density functions of Θ\Theta given Φ\Phi, and of Φ\Phi given Θ\Theta.

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Problem 4.6.2

Show that the conditional expectation ψ(X)=E[Y∣X]\psi (X) = \mathbb {E}\left[Y \mid X\right] satisfies E[ψ(X)g(X)]=E[Yg(X)]\mathbb {E}\left[\psi (X) g(X)\right] = \mathbb {E}\left[Y g(X)\right], for any function gg for which both expectations exist.

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Problem 4.6.3

Construct an example of two random variables XX and YY for which E[Y]=∞\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right] = \infty but such that E[Y∣X]<∞\mathbb {E}\left[Y \mid X\right] < \infty almost surely.

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Problem 4.6.4

Find the conditional density function and expectation of YY given XX when they have joint density function:

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(a)

f(x,y)=λ2e−λyf(x, y) = \lambda^{2} e^{-\lambda y} for 0≤x≤y<∞0 \leq x \leq y < \infty,

(b)

f(x,y)=xe−x(y+1)f(x, y) = x e^{-x(y+1)} for x,y≥0x, y \geq 0.

Problem 4.6.5

Let YY be distributed as bin⁡(n,X)\operatorname {bin}(n, X), where XX is a random variable having a beta distribution on [0,1][0,1] with parameters aa and bb. Describe the distribution of YY, and find its mean and variance. What is the distribution of YY in the special case when XX is uniform?

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Problem 4.6.6

Let {Xr:r≥1}\left\{ X_{r}: r \geq 1\right\} be independent and uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1]. Let 0<x<10 < x < 1 and define

N=min⁡{n≥1:X1+X2+⋯+Xn>x} N = \min \left\{ n \geq 1: X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots +X_{n} > x\right\}

Show that P(N>n)=xn/n!\mathbb {P}\left(N > n\right) = x^{n} / n!, and hence find the mean and variance of NN.

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Problem 4.6.7

Let XX and YY be random variables with correlation ρ\rho. Show that E[Var⁡[Y∣X]]≤(1−ρ2)Var⁡[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[\operatorname {Var}\left[Y \mid X\right]\right] \leq \left(1-\rho^{2}\right) \operatorname {Var}\left[Y\right].

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Problem 4.6.8

Let X,Y,ZX, Y, Z be independent and exponential random variables with respective parameters λ,μ,ν\lambda , \mu , \nu. Find P(X<Y<Z)\mathbb {P}\left(X < Y < Z\right).

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Problem 4.6.9

Let XX and YY have the joint density f(x,y)=cx(y−x)e−y,0≤x≤y<∞f(x, y) = c x(y-x) e^{-y}, 0 \leq x \leq y < \infty.

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(a)

Find cc.

(b)

Show that:

fX∣Y(x∣y)=6x(y−x)y−3,0≤x≤yfY∣X(y∣x)=(y−x)ex−y,0≤x≤y<∞ \begin{array}{ll} f_{X \mid Y}(x \mid y) = 6 x(y-x) y^{-3}, & 0 \leq x \leq y \\ f_{Y \mid X}(y \mid x) = (y-x) e^{x-y}, & 0 \leq x \leq y < \infty \end{array}
(c)

Deduce that E[X∣Y]=12Y\mathbb {E}\left[X \mid Y\right] = \frac{1}{2} Y and E[Y∣X]=X+2\mathbb {E}\left[Y \mid X\right] = X+2.

Problem 4.6.10

Let {Xr:r≥0}\left\{ X_{r}: r \geq 0\right\} be independent and identically distributed random variables with density function ff and distribution function FF. Let N=min⁡{n≥1:Xn>X0}N = \min \left\{ n \geq 1: X_{n} > X_{0}\right\} and M=min⁡{n≥1:X0≥X1≥⋯≥Xn−1<Xn}M = \min \left\{ n \geq 1 : X_{0} \geq X_{1} \geq \cdots \geq X_{n-1} < X_{n}\right\}. Show that XNX_{N} has distribution function F+(1−F)log⁡(1−F)F+(1-F) \log (1-F), and find P(M=m)\mathbb {P}\left(M = m\right).

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Problem 4.6.11

Let the point P=(X,Y)P = (X, Y) be uniformly distributed in the square S=[0,1]2S = [0,1]^{2}, and denote by f(x∣D)f(x \mid D) the density function of XX conditional on the event DD that PP lies on the diagonal of SS through the origin.

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(a)

Let U=X−YU = X-Y. Find f(x∣D)f(x \mid D) by conditioning on U=0U = 0.

(b)

Let V=Y/XV = Y / X. Find f(x∣D)f(x \mid D) by conditioning on V=1V = 1.

(c)

Explain.

Problem 4.6.12
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(a)

Let XX and YY be independent with density functions fX,fYf_{X}, f_{Y} and distribution functions FX,FYF_{X}, F_{Y}. Show that

P(X<Y)=∫−∞∞FX(y)fY(y)dy \mathbb {P}\left(X < Y\right) = \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } F_{X}(y) f_{Y}(y) d y
(b)

AA and BB play a game as follows. Each creates a random variable, denoted respectively UAU_{A} and UBU_{B}, which is uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1]; assume UAU_{A} and UBU_{B} are independent, and neither player knows the opponent's value. Each player has the option to (once) discard their number and to resample from the uniform distribution. After any such choices, the two numbers are compared and the larger wins. Show that the strategy 'replace your number if and only if it is less than 12(5−1)′\frac{1}{2}(\sqrt{5}-1)^{\prime } ensures a win with probability at least 12\frac{1}{2}.

Problem 4.6.13

Let X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots be independent, each with density function f:R→[0,∞)f: \mathbb {R} \rightarrow [0, \infty ). The index r>1r > 1 is called a record time if Xr>max⁡{X1,X2,…,Xr−1}X_{r} > \max \left\{ X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{r-1}\right\}, and r=1r = 1 is called a record time by convention. Let ArA_{r} be the event that rr is a record time.

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(a)

Show that the ArA_{r} are independent events with P(Ar)=1/r\mathbb {P}\left(A_{r}\right) = 1 / r.

(b)

Show that the number RnR_{n} of record times up to time nn has variance

Var⁡[Rn]=∑r=1n(r−1−r−2) \operatorname {Var}\left[R_{n}\right] = \sum _{r = 1}^{n}\left(r^{-1}-r^{-2}\right)
(c)

Show that the first record time TT after r=1r = 1 has mean E[T]=∞\mathbb {E}\left[T\right] = \infty.

Problem 4.6.14

A unit stick is broken uniformly at random, and the larger piece is broken again uniformly at random. Show that the probability the three pieces may be used to form a triangle is 2log⁡2−12 \log 2-1

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Problem 4.6.15

Let U1,U2,…,Un+1U_{1}, U_{2}, \ldots , U_{n+1} be independent random variables with the uniform distribution on [0,1][0,1], and let

U(1)=min⁡1≤r≤nUr,U(n)=max⁡1≤r≤nUr U_{(1)} = \min _{1 \leq r \leq n} U_{r}, \quad U_{(n)} = \max _{1 \leq r \leq n} U_{r}

Show that E[U(1)]=1/(n+1)\mathbb {E}\left[U_{(1)}\right] = 1 /(n+1) and deduce that

P(U(n)−U(1)≤Un+1)=2n+1 \mathbb {P}\left(U_{(n)}-U_{(1)} \leq U_{n+1}\right) = \frac{2}{n+1}
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