Section 4.14

Problems

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Problem 4.14.1
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(a)

Show that ∫−∞∞e−x2dx=π\int_{-\infty }^{\infty } e^{-x^{2}} d x = \sqrt{\pi }, and deduce that

f(x)=1σ2πexp⁡{−(x−μ)22σ2},−∞<x<∞ f(x) = \frac{1}{\sigma \sqrt{2 \pi }} \exp \left\{ -\frac{(x-\mu )^{2}}{2 \sigma ^{2}}\right\} , \quad -\infty < x < \infty

is a density function if σ>0\sigma > 0.

(b)

Calculate the mean and variance of a standard normal variable.

(c)

Show that the N(0,1)N(0,1) distribution function Φ\Phi satisfies

(x−1−x−3)e−12x2<2π[1−Φ(x)]<x−1e−12x2,x>0 \left(x^{-1}-x^{-3}\right) e^{-\frac{1}{2} x^{2}} < \sqrt{2 \pi }[1-\Phi (x)] < x^{-1} e^{-\frac{1}{2} x^{2}}, \quad x > 0

These bounds are of interest because Φ\Phi has no closed form.

(d)

Let XX be N(0,1)N(0,1), and a>0a > 0. Show that P(X>x+a/x∣X>x)→e−a\mathbb {P}\left(X > x+a / x \mid X > x\right) \rightarrow e^{-a} as x→0x \rightarrow 0.

Problem 4.14.2

Let XX be continuous with density function f(x)=C(x−x2)f(x) = C\left(x-x^{2}\right), where α<x<β\alpha < x < \beta and C>0C > 0.

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(a)

What are the possible values of α\alpha and β\beta?

(b)

What is CC?

Problem 4.14.3

Let XX be a random variable which takes non-negative values only. Show that

∑i=1∞(i−1)IAi≤X<∑i=1∞iIAi \sum _{i = 1}^{\infty }(i-1) I_{A_{i}} \leq X < \sum _{i = 1}^{\infty } i I_{A_{i}}

where Ai={i−1≤X<i}A_{i} = \left\{ i-1 \leq X < i\right\}. Deduce that

∑i=1∞P(X≥i)≤E[X]<1+∑i=1∞P(X≥i) \sum _{i = 1}^{\infty } \mathbb {P}\left(X \geq i\right) \leq \mathbb {E}\left[X\right] < 1+\sum _{i = 1}^{\infty } \mathbb {P}\left(X \geq i\right)
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Problem 4.14.4
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(a)

Let XX have a continuous distribution function FF. Show that

(i) F(X)F(X) is uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1],

(ii) −log⁡F(X)-\log F(X) is exponentially distributed.

(b)

A straight line ll touches a circle with unit diameter at the point P which is diametrically opposed on the circle to another point Q. A straight line QR joins Q to some point R on ll. If the angle PQR^\widehat{\mathrm{PQR}} between the lines PQ and QR is a random variable with the uniform distribution on [−12π,12π]\left[-\frac{1}{2} \pi , \frac{1}{2} \pi \right], show that the length of PR has the Cauchy distribution (this length is measured positive or negative depending upon which side of P the point R lies).

(c)

Let the net scores in the two halves of a game between teams AA and BB be independent and identically distributed random variables X,YX, Y that are symmetric about 0 and have a continuous distribution function FF. Team AA wins (respectively, loses) if X+Y>0X+Y > 0 (respectively, X+Y≤0X+Y \leq 0). Find the probability that AA wins conditional on the half-time score XX.

Problem 4.14.5
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(a)

Let g:[0,∞)→(0,∞)g:[0, \infty ) \rightarrow (0, \infty ) be such that g(s+t)=g(s)g(t)g(s+t) = g(s) g(t) for s,t≥0s, t \geq 0. If gg is monotone, show that g(s)=eμsg(s) = e^{\mu s} for some μ∈R\mu \in \mathbb {R}.

(b)

Let XX have an exponential distribution. Show that P(X>s+x∣X>s)=P(X>x)\mathbb {P}\left(X > s+x \mid X > s\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(X > x\right), for x,s≥0x, s \geq 0. This is the 'lack of memory' property again. Show that the exponential distribution is the only continuous distribution with this property.

(c)

The height MM of the largest tidal surge in a certain estuary has the exponential distribution with parameter 11, and it costs hh to build a barrier with height hh in order to protect an upstream city. If M≤hM \leq h, the surge costs nothing; if M>hM > h, the surge entails an extra cost of a+b(M−h)a+b(M-h). Show that, for a+b≥1a+b \geq 1, the expected total cost is minimal when h=log⁡(a+b)h = \log (a+b). What if a+b<1a+b < 1?

Problem 4.14.6

Show that XX and YY are independent continuous variables if and only if their joint density function ff factorizes as the product f(x,y)=g(x)h(y)f(x, y) = g(x) h(y) of functions of the single variables xx and yy alone.

Explain why the density function f(x,y)=Ce−x−yf(x, y) = C e^{-x-y} (for x,y≥0,x+y>1x, y \geq 0, x+y > 1) does not provide a counterexample to this assertion.

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Problem 4.14.7

Let XX and YY have joint density function f(x,y)=2e−x−y,0<x<y<∞f(x, y) = 2 e^{-x-y}, 0 < x < y < \infty. Are they independent? Find their marginal density functions and their covariance.

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Problem 4.14.8

A chord of the unit circle is picked at random. What is the probability that an equilateral triangle with the chord as base can fit inside the circle if:

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(a)

the chord passes through a point P picked uniformly in the disk, and the angle it makes with a fixed direction is uniformly distributed on [0,2π)[0,2 \pi ),

(b)

the chord passes through a point P picked uniformly at random on a randomly chosen radius, and the angle it makes with the radius is uniformly distributed on [0,2π)[0,2 \pi ).

Problem 4.14.9

It is required to estimate J=∫01g(x)dxJ = \int_{0}^{1} g(x) d x where 0≤g(x)≤10 \leq g(x) \leq 1 for all xx, as in Example (2.6.3). Let XX and YY be independent random variables with common density function f(x)=1f(x) = 1 if 0<x<1,f(x)=00 < x < 1, f(x) = 0 otherwise. Let U=I{Y≤g(X)}U = I_{\left\{ Y \leq g(X)\right\} }, the indicator function of the event that Y≤g(X)Y \leq g(X), and let V=g(X),W=12{g(X)+g(1−X)}V = g(X), W = \frac{1}{2}\left\{ g(X)+g(1-X)\right\}. Show that E[U]=E[V]=E[W]=J\mathbb {E}\left[U\right] = \mathbb {E}\left[V\right] = \mathbb {E}\left[W\right] = J, and that Var⁡[W]≤Var⁡[V]≤Var⁡[U]\operatorname {Var}\left[W\right] \leq \operatorname {Var}\left[V\right] \leq \operatorname {Var}\left[U\right], so that, of the three, WW is the most 'efficient' estimator of JJ.

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Problem 4.14.10

Let X1,X2,…,XnX_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{n} be independent exponential variables, parameter λ\lambda. Show by induction that S=X1+X2+⋯+XnS = X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots +X_{n} has the Γ(λ,n)\Gamma (\lambda , n) distribution.

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Problem 4.14.11

Let XX and YY be independent variables, Γ(λ,m)\Gamma (\lambda , m) and Γ(λ,n)\Gamma (\lambda , n) respectively.

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(a)

Use the result of Problem (4.14.10) to show that X+YX+Y is Γ(λ,m+n)\Gamma (\lambda , m+n) when mm and nn are integral (the same conclusion is actually valid for non-integral mm and nn).

(b)

Find the joint density function of X+YX+Y and X/(X+Y)X /(X+Y), and deduce that they are independent.

(c)

If ZZ is Poisson with parameter λt\lambda t, and mm is integral, show that P(Z<m)=P(X>t)\mathbb {P}\left(Z < m\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(X > t\right).

(d)

If 0<m<n0 < m < n and BB is independent of YY with the beta distribution with parameters mm and n−mn-m, show that YBY B has the same distribution as XX.

Problem 4.14.12

Let X1,X2,…,XnX_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{n} be independent N(0,1)N(0,1) variables.

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(a)

Show that X12X_{1}^{2} is χ2(1)\chi^{2}(1).

(b)

Show that X12+X22X_{1}^{2}+X_{2}^{2} is χ2(2)\chi^{2}(2) by expressing its distribution function as an integral and changing to polar coordinates.

(c)

More generally, show that X12+X22+⋯+Xn2X_{1}^{2}+X_{2}^{2}+\cdots +X_{n}^{2} is χ2(n)\chi^{2}(n).

Problem 4.14.13

Let XX and YY have the bivariate normal distribution with means μ1,μ2\mu_{1}, \mu_{2}, variances σ12,σ22\sigma_{1}^{2}, \sigma_{2}^{2}, and correlation ρ\rho. Show that

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(a)

E[X∣Y]=μ1+ρσ1(Y−μ2)/σ2\mathbb {E}\left[X \mid Y\right] = \mu_{1}+\rho \sigma_{1}\left(Y-\mu_{2}\right) / \sigma_{2},

(b)

the variance of the conditional density function fX∣Yf_{X \mid Y} is Var⁡[X∣Y]=σ12(1−ρ2)\operatorname {Var}\left[X \mid Y\right] = \sigma_{1}^{2}\left(1-\rho^{2}\right).

Problem 4.14.14

Let XX and YY have joint density function ff. Find the density function of Y/XY / X.

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Problem 4.14.15

Let XX and YY be independent variables with common density function ff. Show that tan⁡−1(Y/X)\tan^{-1}(Y / X) has the uniform distribution on (−12π,12π)(-\frac{1}{2} \pi , \frac{1}{2} \pi ) if and only if

∫−∞∞f(x)f(xy)∣x∣dx=1π(1+y2),y∈R \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f(x) f(x y)\left|x\right| d x = \frac{1}{\pi \left(1+y^{2}\right)}, \quad y \in \mathbb {R}

Verify that this is valid if either ff is the N(0,1)N(0,1) density function or f(x)=a(1+x4)−1f(x) = a\left(1+x^{4}\right)^{-1} for some constant aa.

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Problem 4.14.16

Let XX and YY be independent N(0,1)N(0,1) variables, and think of (X,Y)(X, Y) as a random point in the plane. Change to polar coordinates (R,Θ)(R, \Theta ) given by R2=X2+Y2,tan⁡Θ=Y/XR^{2} = X^{2}+Y^{2}, \tan \Theta = Y / X; show that R2R^{2} is χ2(2),tan⁡Θ\chi^{2}(2), \tan \Theta has the Cauchy distribution, and RR and Θ\Theta are independent. Find the density of RR.

Find E[X2/R2]\mathbb {E}\left[X^{2} / R^{2}\right] and

E[min⁡{∣X∣,∣Y∣}max⁡{∣X∣,∣Y∣}] \mathbb {E}\left[\frac{\min \left\{ |X|,|Y|\right\} }{\max \left\{ |X|,|Y|\right\} }\right]
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Problem 4.14.17

If XX and YY are independent random variables, show that U=min⁡{X,Y}U = \min \left\{ X, Y\right\} and V=max⁡{X,Y}V = \max \left\{ X, Y\right\} have distribution functions

FU(u)=1−{1−FX(u)}{1−FY(u)},FV(v)=FX(v)FY(v) F_{U}(u) = 1-\left\{ 1-F_{X}(u)\right\} \left\{ 1-F_{Y}(u)\right\} , \quad F_{V}(v) = F_{X}(v) F_{Y}(v)

Let XX and YY be independent exponential variables, parameter 1. Show that

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(a)

UU is exponential, parameter 22,

(b)

VV has the same distribution as X+12YX+\frac{1}{2} Y. Hence find the mean and variance of VV.

Problem 4.14.18

Let XX and YY be independent variables having the exponential distribution with parameters λ\lambda and μ\mu respectively. Let U=min⁡{X,Y},V=max⁡{X,Y}U = \min \left\{ X, Y\right\} , V = \max \left\{ X, Y\right\}, and W=V−UW = V-U.

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(a)

Find P(U=X)=P(X≤Y)\mathbb {P}\left(U = X\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(X \leq Y\right).

(b)

Show that UU and WW are independent.

Problem 4.14.19

Let XX and YY be independent non-negative random variables with continuous density functions on (0,∞)(0, \infty ).

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(a)

If, given X+Y=u,XX+Y = u, X is uniformly distributed on [0,u][0, u] whatever the value of uu, show that XX and YY have the exponential distribution.

(b)

If, given that X+Y=u,X/uX+Y = u, X / u has a given beta distribution (parameters α\alpha and β\beta, say) whatever the value of uu, show that XX and YY have gamma distributions. You may need the fact that the only non-negative continuous solutions of the functional equation g(s+t)=g(s)g(t)g(s+t) = g(s) g(t) for s,t≥0s, t \geq 0, with g(0)=1g(0) = 1, are of the form g(s)=eμsg(s) = e^{\mu s}. Remember Problem (4.14.5).

Problem 4.14.20

Show that it cannot be the case that U=X+YU = X+Y where UU is uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1] and XX and YY are independent and identically distributed. You should not assume that XX and YY are continuous variables.

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Problem 4.14.21

Let X1,X2,…,XnX_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{n} be independent identically distributed variables with a common density function ff. Such a collection is called a random sample. For each ω∈Ω\omega \in \Omega, arrange the sample values X1(ω),…,Xn(ω)X_{1}(\omega ), \ldots , X_{n}(\omega ) in non-decreasing order X(1)(ω)≤X(2)(ω)≤⋯≤X(n)(ω)X_{(1)}(\omega ) \leq X_{(2)}(\omega ) \leq \cdots \leq X_{(n)}(\omega ), where (1), (2), ,., (n) is a (random) permutation of 1,2,…,n1,2, \ldots , n. The new variables X(1),X(2),…,X(n)X_{(1)}, X_{(2)}, \ldots , X_{(n)} are called the order statistics. Show, by a symmetry argument, that the joint distribution function of the order statistics satisfies

P(X(1)≤y1,…,X(n)≤yn)=n!P(X1≤y1,…,Xn≤yn,X1<X2<⋯<Xn)=∫⋯∫x2≤y2x1≤y1L(x1,…,xn)n!f(x1)⋯f(xn)dx1⋯dxn⋮xn≤yn \begin{gathered} \mathbb {P}\left(X_{(1)} \leq y_{1}, \ldots , X_{(n)} \leq y_{n}\right) = n!\mathbb {P}\left(X_{1} \leq y_{1}, \ldots , X_{n} \leq y_{n}, X_{1} < X_{2} < \cdots < X_{n}\right) \\ = \int \cdots \int _{x_{2} \leq y_{2}}^{x_{1} \leq y_{1}} L\left(x_{1}, \ldots , x_{n}\right) n!f\left(x_{1}\right) \cdots f\left(x_{n}\right) d x_{1} \cdots d x_{n} \\ \vdots \\ x_{n} \leq y_{n} \end{gathered}

where LL is given by

L(x)={1 if x1<x2<⋯<xn0 otherwise  L(\mathbf{x}) = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{ if } x_{1} < x_{2} < \cdots < x_{n} \\ 0 & \text{ otherwise }\end{cases}

and x=(x1,x2,…,xn)\mathbf{x} = \left(x_{1}, x_{2}, \ldots , x_{n}\right). Deduce that the joint density function of X(1),…,X(n)X_{(1)}, \ldots , X_{(n)} is g(y)=n!L(y)f(y1)⋯f(yn)g(\mathbf{y}) = n!L(\mathbf{y}) f\left(y_{1}\right) \cdots f\left(y_{n}\right).

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Problem 4.14.22

Find the marginal density function of the kk th order statistic X(k)X_{(k)} of a sample with size nn :

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(a)

by integrating the result of Problem (4.14.21),

(b)

directly.

Problem 4.14.23

Find the joint density function of the order statistics of nn independent uniform variables on [0,T][0, T].

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Problem 4.14.24

Let X1,X2,…,XnX_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{n} be independent and uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1], with order statistics X(1),X(2),…,X(n)X_{(1)}, X_{(2)}, \ldots , X_{(n)}.

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(a)

Show that, for fixed kk, the density function of nX(k)n X_{(k)} converges as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty, and find and identify the limit function.

(b)

Show that log⁡X(k)\log X_{(k)} has the same distribution as −∑i=kni−1Yi-\sum_{i = k}^{n} i^{-1} Y_{i}, where the YiY_{i} are independent random variables having the exponential distribution with parameter 1.

(c)

Show that Z1,Z2,…,ZnZ_{1}, Z_{2}, \ldots , Z_{n}, defined by Zk=(X(k)/X(k+1))kZ_{k} = \left(X_{(k)} / X_{(k+1)}\right)^{k} for k<nk < n and Zn=(X(n))nZ_{n} = \left(X_{(n)}\right)^{n}, are independent random variables with the uniform distribution on [0,1][0,1].

Problem 4.14.25

Let X1,X2,X3X_{1}, X_{2}, X_{3} be independent variables with the uniform distribution on [0,1][0,1]. What is the probability that rods of lengths X1,X2X_{1}, X_{2}, and X3X_{3} may be used to make a triangle? Generalize your answer to nn rods used to form a polygon.

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Problem 4.14.26

Let X1X_{1} and X2X_{2} be independent variables with the uniform distribution on [0,1][0, 1]. A stick of unit length is broken at points distance X1X_{1} and X2X_{2} from one of the ends. What is the probability that the three pieces may be used to make a triangle? Generalize your answer to a stick broken in nn places.

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Problem 4.14.27

Let X,YX, Y be a pair of jointly continuous variables.

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(a)

Hölder's inequality. Show that if p,q>1p, q > 1 and p−1+q−1=1p^{-1}+q^{-1} = 1 then

E[∣XY∣]≤E[∣Xp∣]1/pE[∣Yq∣]1/q \mathbb {E}\left[\left|X Y\right|\right] \leq \mathbb {E}\left[\left|X^{p}\right|\right]^{1 / p}\mathbb {E}\left[\left|Y^{q}\right|\right]^{1 / q}

Set p=q=2p = q = 2 to deduce the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality E[XY]2≤E[X2]E[Y2]\mathbb {E}\left[X Y\right]^{2} \leq \mathbb {E}\left[X^{2}\right] \mathbb {E}\left[Y^{2}\right].

(b)

Minkowski's inequality. Show that, if p≥1p \geq 1, then

E[∣X+Y∣p]1/p≤E[∣Xp∣]1/p+E[∣Yp∣]1/p \mathbb {E}\left[\left|X+Y\right|^{p}\right]^{1 / p} \leq \mathbb {E}\left[\left|X^{p}\right|\right]^{1 / p}+\mathbb {E}\left[\left|Y^{p}\right|\right]^{1 / p}

Note that in both cases your proof need not depend on the continuity of XX and YY; deduce that the same inequalities hold for discrete variables.

Problem 4.14.28

Let ZZ be a random variable. Choose XX and YY appropriately in the Cauchy-Schwarz (or Hölder) inequality to show that g(p)=log⁡E[∣Zp∣]g(p) = \log \mathbb {E}\left[\left|Z^{p}\right|\right] is a convex function of pp on the interval of values of pp such that E[∣Zp∣]<∞\mathbb {E}\left[\left|Z^{p}\right|\right] < \infty. Deduce Lyapunov's inequality:

E[∣Zr∣]1/r≥E[∣Zs∣]1/s whenever r≥s>0 \mathbb {E}\left[\left|Z^{r}\right|\right]^{1 / r} \geq \mathbb {E}\left[\left|Z^{s}\right|\right]^{1 / s} \quad \text{ whenever } r \geq s > 0

You have shown in particular that, if ZZ has finite rr th moment, then ZZ has finite ss th moment for all positive s≤rs \leq r.

Show more generally that, if r1,r2,…,rnr_{1}, r_{2}, \ldots , r_{n} are real numbers such that E[∣Xrk∣]<∞\mathbb {E}\left[\left|X^{r_{k}}\right|\right] < \infty and s=n−1∑k=1nrks = n^{-1} \sum_{k = 1}^{n} r_{k}, then

∏k=1nE[∣Xrk∣]≥E[∣X∣s]n \prod _{k = 1}^{n} \mathbb {E}\left[\left|X^{r_{k}}\right|\right] \geq \mathbb {E}\left[\left|X\right|^{s}\right]^{n}
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Problem 4.14.29

Show that, using the obvious notation, E[E[X∣Y,Z]∣Y]=E[X∣Y]\mathbb {E}\left[\mathbb {E}\left[X \mid Y, Z\right] \mid Y\right] = \mathbb {E}\left[X \mid Y\right].

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Problem 4.14.30

Motor cars of unit length park randomly in a street in such a way that the centre of each car, in turn, is positioned uniformly at random in the space available to it. Let m(x)m(x) be the expected number of cars which are able to park in a street of length xx. Show that

m(x+1)=1x∫0x{m(y)+m(x−y)+1}dy m(x+1) = \frac{1}{x} \int _{0}^{x}\left\{ m(y)+m(x-y)+1\right\} d y

It is possible to deduce that m(x)m(x) is about as big as 34x\frac{3}{4} x when xx is large.

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Problem 4.14.31

Buffon's needle revisited: Buffon's noodle.

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(a)

A plane is ruled by the lines y=nd(n=0,±1,…)y = n d(n = 0, \pm 1, \ldots ). A needle with length L(<d)L( < d) is cast randomly onto the plane. Show that the probability that the needle intersects a line is 2L/(πd)2 L /(\pi d).

(b)

Now fix the needle and let CC be a circle diameter dd centred at the midpoint of the needle. Let λ\lambda be a line whose direction and distance from the centre of CC are independent and uniformly distributed on [0,2π][0,2 \pi ] and [0,12d]\left[0, \frac{1}{2} d\right] respectively. This is equivalent to 'casting the ruled plane at random'. Show that the probability of an intersection between the needle and λ\lambda is 2L/(πd)2 L /(\pi d).

(c)

Let SS be a curve within CC having finite length L(S)L(S). Use indicators to show that the expected number of intersections between SS and λ\lambda is 2L(S)/(πd)2 L(S) /(\pi d). This type of result is used in stereology, which seeks knowledge of the contents of a cell by studying its cross sections.

Problem 4.14.32

In the excitement of calculating π\pi, Mr Buffon (no relation) inadvertently swallows the needle and is X-rayed. If the needle exhibits no preference for direction in the gut, what is the distribution of the length of its image on the X-ray plate? If he swallowed Buffon's cross (see Exercise (4.5.3)) also, what would be the joint distribution of the lengths of the images of the two arms of the cross?

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Problem 4.14.33

Let X1,X2,…,XnX_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{n} be independent exponential variables with parameter λ\lambda, and let X(1)≤X(2)≤⋯≤X(n)X_{(1)} \leq X_{(2)} \leq \cdots \leq X_{(n)} be their order statistics. Show that

Y1=nX(1),Yr=(n+1−r)(X(r)−X(r−1)),1<r≤n Y_{1} = n X_{(1)}, \quad Y_{r} = (n+1-r)\left(X_{(r)}-X_{(r-1)}\right), \quad 1 < r \leq n

are also independent and have the same joint distribution as the XiX_{i}.

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Problem 4.14.34

Let X(1),X(2),…,X(n)X_{(1)}, X_{(2)}, \ldots , X_{(n)} be the order statistics of a family of independent variables with common continuous distribution function FF. Show that

Yn={F(X(n))}n,Yr={F(X(r))F(X(r+1))}r,1≤r<n Y_{n} = \left\{ F\left(X_{(n)}\right)\right\} ^{n}, \quad Y_{r} = \left\{ \frac{F\left(X_{(r)}\right)}{F\left(X_{(r+1)}\right)}\right\} ^{r}, \quad 1 \leq r < n

are independent and uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1]. This is equivalent to Problem (4.14.33). Why?

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Problem 4.14.35

You are permitted to inspect the nn prizes at a fête in a given order, at each stage either rejecting or accepting the prize under consideration. There is no recall, in the sense that no rejected prize may be accepted later. It may be assumed that, given complete information, the prizes may be ranked in a strict order of preference, and that the order of presentation is independent of this ranking. Find the strategy which maximizes the probability of accepting the best prize, and describe its behaviour when nn is large.

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Problem 4.14.36

Let R2=X2+Y2+Z2R^{2} = X^{2}+Y^{2}+Z^{2} where X,Y,ZX, Y, Z are independent normal random variables with means λ,μ,ν\lambda , \mu , \nu, and common variance σ2\sigma^{2}, where (λ,μ,ν)≠(0,0,0)(\lambda , \mu , \nu ) \neq (0,0,0). Show that the conditional density of the point (X,Y,Z)(X, Y, Z) given R=rR = r, when expressed in spherical polar coordinates relative to an axis in the direction e=(λ,μ,ν)\mathbf{e} = (\lambda , \mu , \nu ), is of the form

f(θ,ϕ)=a4πsinh⁡aeacos⁡θsin⁡θ,0≤θ<π,0≤ϕ<2π f(\theta , \phi ) = \frac{a}{4 \pi \sinh a} e^{a \cos \theta } \sin \theta , \quad 0 \leq \theta < \pi , 0 \leq \phi < 2 \pi

where a=r∣e∣a = r\left|\mathbf{e}\right|.

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Problem 4.14.37

Let ϕ\phi be the N(0,1)N(0,1) density function, and define the functions Hn,n≥0H_{n}, n \geq 0, by H0=1H_{0} = 1, and (−1)nHnϕ=ϕ(n)(-1)^{n} H_{n} \phi = \phi^{(n)}, the nnth derivative of ϕ\phi. Show that:

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(a)

Hn(x)H_{n}(x) is a polynomial of degree nn having leading term xnx^{n}, and

∫−∞∞Hm(x)Hn(x)ϕ(x)dx={0 if m≠n,n! if m=n. \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } H_{m}(x) H_{n}(x) \phi (x) d x = \begin{cases} 0 & \text{ if } m \neq n, \\ n! & \text{ if } m = n.\end{cases}
(b)

∑n=0∞Hn(x)tnn!=exp⁡(tx−12t2)\sum_{n = 0}^{\infty } H_{n}(x) \frac{t^{n}}{n!} = \exp \left(t x-\frac{1}{2} t^{2}\right).

Problem 4.14.38

Let XX and YY have a standard bivariate normal distribution with zero means, unit variances, and correlation coefficient ρ\rho, and suppose U=u(X)U = u(X) and V=v(Y)V = v(Y) have finite variances. Show that ∣ρ(U,V)∣≤∣ρ∣\left|\rho (U, V)\right| \leq \left|\rho \right|. [Hint: Use Problem (4.14.37) to expand the functions uu and vv. You may assume that uu and vv lie in the linear span of the HnH_{n}.]

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Problem 4.14.39

Let X(1),X(2),…,X(n)X_{(1)}, X_{(2)}, \ldots , X_{(n)} be the order statistics of nn independent random variables, uniform on [0,1][0,1]. Show that:

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(a)

E[X(r)]=rn+1\mathbb {E}\left[X_{(r)}\right] = \frac{r}{n+1},

(b)

Cov⁡[X(r),X(s)]=r(n−s+1)(n+1)2(n+2)\operatorname {Cov}\left[X_{(r)}, X_{(s)}\right] = \frac{r(n-s+1)}{(n+1)^{2}(n+2)} for r≤sr \leq s.

Problem 4.14.40
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(a)

Let X,Y,ZX, Y, Z be independent N(0,1)N(0,1) variables, and set R=X2+Y2+Z2R = \sqrt{X^{2}+Y^{2}+Z^{2}}. Show that X2/R2X^{2} / R^{2} has a beta distribution with parameters 12\frac{1}{2} and 11, and is independent of R2R^{2}.

(b)

Let X,Y,ZX, Y, Z be independent and uniform on [−1,1][-1,1] and set R=X2+Y2+Z2R = \sqrt{X^{2}+Y^{2}+Z^{2}}. Find the density of X2/R2X^{2} / R^{2} given that R2≤1R^{2} \leq 1.

Problem 4.14.41
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(a)

Skew normal distribution. Let ϕ\phi and Φ\Phi be the density and distribution functions of the random variable XX with the standard normal distribution. Show, for λ∈R\lambda \in \mathbb {R}, that g(x)=2ϕ(x)Φ(λx)g(x) = 2 \phi (x) \Phi (\lambda x), x∈Rx \in \mathbb {R}, is the density function of some random variable (denoted by YY). Show that ∣X∣\left|X\right| and ∣Y∣\left|Y\right| have the same distributions. Let XX have the N(0,1)N(0,1) distribution and be independent of YY, and define U=(X+λ∣Y∣)/1+λ2U = (X+\lambda \left|Y\right|) / \sqrt{1+\lambda^{2}}. Write down the joint density of UU and V=∣Y∣V = \left|Y\right|, and deduce that UU has density function gg.

(b)

General skew distributions. For i=1,2i = 1,2, let XiX_{i} have a density function fif_{i}, which is symmetric about 0 with distribution function FiF_{i}.

(i) Let λ∈R\lambda \in \mathbb {R}, and show that g1(x)=2f1(x)F2(λx)g_{1}(x) = 2 f_{1}(x) F_{2}(\lambda x) and g2(x)=2f2(x)F1(λx)g_{2}(x) = 2 f_{2}(x) F_{1}(\lambda x) are density functions.

(ii) Let X1X_{1} and X2X_{2} be independent. Find the conditional density function of X2X_{2} given that X1<λX2X_{1} < \lambda X_{2}.

Problem 4.14.42

The six coordinates (Xi,Yi),1≤i≤3\left(X_{i}, Y_{i}\right), 1 \leq i \leq 3, of three points A,B,C\mathrm{A}, \mathrm{B}, \mathrm{C} in the plane are independent N(0,1)N(0,1). Show that the the probability that C lies inside the circle with diameter AB is 14\frac{1}{4}.

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Problem 4.14.43

The coordinates (Xi,Yi,Zi),1≤i≤3\left(X_{i}, Y_{i}, Z_{i}\right), 1 \leq i \leq 3, of three points A,B,C\mathrm{A}, \mathrm{B}, \mathrm{C} are independent N(0,1)N(0,1). Show that the probability that C lies inside the sphere with diameter AB is 13−34π\frac{1}{3}-\frac{\sqrt{3}}{4 \pi }.

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Problem 4.14.44

Let XX have variance σ2\sigma^{2} and write mk=E[Xk]m_{k} = \mathbb {E}\left[X^{k}\right]. Define the skewness of XX by skw⁡(X)=E[(X−m1)3]/σ3\operatorname {skw}(X) = \mathbb {E}\left[\left(X-m_{1}\right)^{3}\right] / \sigma^{3}. Show that:

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(a)

skw⁡(X)=(m3−3m1m2+2m13)/σ3\operatorname {skw}(X) = \left(m_{3}-3 m_{1} m_{2}+2 m_{1}^{3}\right) / \sigma^{3},

(b)

skw⁡(Sn)=skw⁡(X1)/n\operatorname {skw}\left(S_{n}\right) = \operatorname {skw}\left(X_{1}\right) / \sqrt{n}, where Sn=∑r=1nXrS_{n} = \sum_{r = 1}^{n} X_{r} is a sum of independent identically distributed random variables,

(c)

skw⁡(X)=(1−2p)/npq\operatorname {skw}(X) = (1-2 p) / \sqrt{n p q}, when XX is bin⁡(n,p)\operatorname {bin}(n, p) where p+q=1p+q = 1,

(d)

skw⁡(X)=1/λ\operatorname {skw}(X) = 1 / \sqrt{\lambda }, when XX is Poisson with parameter λ\lambda,

(e)

skw⁡(X)=2/t\operatorname {skw}(X) = 2 / \sqrt{t}, when XX is gamma Γ(λ,t)\Gamma (\lambda , t), and tt is integral.

Problem 4.14.45

Let XX have variance σ2\sigma^{2} and E[Xk]=mk\mathbb {E}\left[X^{k}\right] = m_{k}. Define the kurtosis of XX by kur⁡(X)=E[(X−m1)4]/σ4\operatorname {kur}(X) = \mathbb {E}\left[\left(X-m_{1}\right)^{4}\right] / \sigma^{4}. Show that:

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(a)

kur⁡(X)=3\operatorname {kur}(X) = 3, when XX is N(μ,σ2)N\left(\mu , \sigma^{2}\right),

(b)

kur⁡(X)=9\operatorname {kur}(X) = 9, when XX is exponential with parameter λ\lambda,

(c)

kur⁡(X)=3+λ−1\operatorname {kur}(X) = 3+\lambda^{-1}, when XX is Poisson with parameter λ\lambda,

(d)

kur⁡(Sn)=3+{kur⁡(X1)−3}/n\operatorname {kur}\left(S_{n}\right) = 3+\left\{ \operatorname {kur}\left(X_{1}\right)-3\right\} / n, where Sn=∑r=1nXrS_{n} = \sum_{r = 1}^{n} X_{r} is a sum of independent identically distributed random variables.

Problem 4.14.46

Fisher-Gumbel-Tippett distribution. Let Xr,1≤r≤nX_{r}, 1 \leq r \leq n, be independent and exponentially distributed with parameter 1. Show that X(n)=max⁡{Xr:1≤r≤n}X_{(n)} = \max \left\{ X_{r}: 1 \leq r \leq n\right\} satisfies

lim⁡n→∞P(X(n)−log⁡n≤x)=exp⁡(−e−x),−∞<x<∞ \lim _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(X_{(n)}-\log n \leq x\right) = \exp \left(-e^{-x}\right), \quad -\infty < x < \infty

Hence show that ∫0∞{1−exp⁡(−e−x)−exp⁡(−ex)}dx=γ\int_{0}^{\infty }\left\{ 1-\exp \left(-e^{-x}\right)-\exp \left(-e^{x}\right)\right\} d x = \gamma where γ\gamma is Euler's constant.

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Problem 4.14.47

Let SS and XX have density functions satisfying b(x)≤fS(x)≤a(x)b(x) \leq f_{S}(x) \leq a(x) and fS(x)≤fX(x)f_{S}(x) \leq f_{X}(x). Let UU be uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1] and independent of XX. Given the value XX, we implement the following algorithm:

 if UfX(X)>a(X), reject X; otherwise: if UfX(X)<b(X), accept X; otherwise: if UfX(X)≤fS(X), accept X;  otherwise: reject X \begin{array}{ll} \qquad \text{ if } U f_{X}(X) > a(X), & \text{ reject } X ; \\ \text{ otherwise: if } U f_{X}(X) < b(X), & \text{ accept } X ; \\ \text{ otherwise: if } U f_{X}(X) \leq f_{S}(X), & \text{ accept } X \text{; } \\ \text{ otherwise: reject } X \end{array}

Show that, conditional on ultimate acceptance, XX is distributed as SS. Explain when you might use this method of sampling.

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Problem 4.14.48

Let X,YX, Y, and {Ur:r≥1}\left\{ U_{r}: r \geq 1\right\} be independent random variables, where:

P(X=x)=(e−1)e−x,P(Y=y)=1(e−1)y! for x,y=1,2,… \mathbb {P}\left(X = x\right) = (e-1) e^{-x}, \mathbb {P}\left(Y = y\right) = \frac{1}{(e-1) y!} \text{ for } x, y = 1,2, \ldots

and the UrU_{r} are uniform on [0,1][0,1]. Let M=max⁡{U1,U2,…,UY}M = \max \left\{ U_{1}, U_{2}, \ldots , U_{Y}\right\}, and show that Z=X−MZ = X-M is exponentially distributed.

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Problem 4.14.49

Let UU and VV be independent and uniform on [0,1][0,1]. Set X=−α−1log⁡UX = -\alpha^{-1} \log U and Y=−log⁡VY = -\log V where α>0\alpha > 0.

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(a)

Show that, conditional on the event Y≥12(X−α)2,XY \geq \frac{1}{2}(X-\alpha )^{2}, X has density function f(x)=2/πe−12x2f(x) = \sqrt{2 / \pi } e^{-\frac{1}{2} x^{2}} for x>0x > 0.

(b)

In sampling from the density function ff, it is decided to use a rejection method: for given α>0\alpha > 0, we sample UU and VV repeatedly, and we accept XX the first time that Y≥12(X−α)2Y \geq \frac{1}{2}(X-\alpha )^{2}. What is the optimal value of α\alpha?

(c)

Describe how to use these facts in sampling from the N(0,1)N(0,1) distribution.

Problem 4.14.50

Let SS be a semicircle of unit radius on a diameter DD.

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(a)

A point P is picked at random on DD. If XX is the distance from P to SS along the perpendicular to DD, show E[X]=π/4\mathbb {E}\left[X\right] = \pi / 4.

(b)

A point Q is picked at random on SS. If YY is the perpendicular distance from Q to DD, show E[Y]=2/π\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right] = 2 / \pi.

Problem 4.14.51

(Set for the Fellowship examination of St John's College, Cambridge in 1858.) 'A large quantity of pebbles lies scattered uniformly over a circular field; compare the labour of collecting them one by one:

  1. at the centre O of the field,

  2. at a point A on the circumference.’

To be precise, if LOL_{\mathrm{O}} and LAL_{\mathrm{A}} are the respective labours per stone, show that E[LO]=23a\mathbb {E}\left[L_{\mathrm{O}}\right] = \frac{2}{3} a and E[LA]=32a/(9π)\mathbb {E}\left[L_{\mathrm{A}}\right] = 32 a /(9 \pi ) for some constant aa.

  1. Suppose you take each pebble to the nearer of two points A or B at the ends of a diameter. Show in this case that the labour per stone satisfies

    E[LAB]=4a3π{163−1762+12log⁡(1+2)}≃1.13×23a \mathbb {E}\left[L_{\mathrm{AB}}\right] = \frac{4 a}{3 \pi }\left\{ \frac{16}{3}-\frac{17}{6} \sqrt{2}+\frac{1}{2} \log (1+\sqrt{2})\right\} \simeq 1.13 \times \frac{2}{3} a
  2. Finally suppose you take each pebble to the nearest vertex of an equilateral triangle ABCA B C inscribed in the circle. Why is it obvious that the labour per stone now satisfies E[LABC]<E[LO]\mathbb {E}\left[L_{\mathrm{ABC}}\right] < \mathbb {E}\left[L_{\mathrm{O}}\right]? Enthusiasts are invited to calculate E[LABC]\mathbb {E}\left[L_{\mathrm{ABC}}\right].

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Problem 4.14.52

The lines L,ML, M, and NN are parallel, and P lies on LL. A line picked at random through P meets MM at Q. A line picked at random through Q meets NN at R. What is the density function of the angle Θ\Theta that RP makes with LL? [Hint: Recall Exercise (4.8.2) and Problem (4.14.4).]

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Problem 4.14.53

Let Δ\Delta denote the event that you can form a triangle with three given parts of a rod RR.

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(a)

RR is broken at two points chosen independently and uniformly. Show that P(Δ)=14\mathbb {P}\left(\Delta \right) = \frac{1}{4}.

(b)

RR is broken in two uniformly at random, the longer part is broken in two uniformly at random. Show that P(Δ)=log⁡(4/e)\mathbb {P}\left(\Delta \right) = \log (4 / e).

(c)

RR is broken in two uniformly at random, a randomly chosen part is broken into two equal parts. Show that P(Δ)=12\mathbb {P}\left(\Delta \right) = \frac{1}{2}.

(d)

In case (c) show that, given Δ\Delta, the triangle is obtuse with probability 3−223-2 \sqrt{2}.

Problem 4.14.54

You break a rod at random into two pieces. Let RR be the ratio of the lengths of the shorter to the longer piece. Find the density function fRf_{R}, together with the mean and variance of RR.

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Problem 4.14.55

Let RR be the distance between two points picked at random inside a square of side aa. Show that E[R2]=13a2\mathbb {E}\left[R^{2}\right] = \frac{1}{3} a^{2}, and that R2/a2R^{2} / a^{2} has density function

f(r)={r−4r+π if 0≤r≤14r−1−2−r+2sin⁡−1r−1−2sin⁡−11−r−1 if 1≤r≤2 f(r) = \begin{cases} r-4 \sqrt{r}+\pi & \text{ if } 0 \leq r \leq 1 \\ 4 \sqrt{r-1}-2-r+2 \sin ^{-1} \sqrt{r^{-1}}-2 \sin ^{-1} \sqrt{1-r^{-1}} & \text{ if } 1 \leq r \leq 2\end{cases}
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Problem 4.14.56

Show that a sheet of paper of area A cm2A \mathrm{~ cm}^{2} can be placed on the square lattice with period 1 cm in such a way that at least ⌈A⌉\lceil A\rceil points are covered.

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Problem 4.14.57

Show that it is possible to position a convex rock of surface area SS in sunlight in such a way that its shadow has area at least 14S\frac{1}{4} S.

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Problem 4.14.58

Let {Xr:1≤r≤k+1}\left\{ X_{r}: 1 \leq r \leq k+1\right\} be independent Γ(λ,βr)\Gamma \left(\lambda , \beta_{r}\right) random variables (respectively).

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(a)

Show that Yr=Xr/(X1+⋯+Xr),2≤r≤k+1Y_{r} = X_{r} /\left(X_{1}+\cdots +X_{r}\right), 2 \leq r \leq k+1, are independent random variables.

(b)

Show that Zr=Xr/(X1+⋯+Xk+1),1≤r≤kZ_{r} = X_{r} /\left(X_{1}+\cdots +X_{k+1}\right), 1 \leq r \leq k, have the joint Dirichlet density

Γ(β1+⋯+βk+1)Γ(β1)⋯Γ(βk+1)z1β1−1z2β2−1⋯zkβk−1(1−z1−z2−⋯−zk)βk+1−1 \frac{\Gamma \left(\beta _{1}+\cdots +\beta _{k+1}\right)}{\Gamma \left(\beta _{1}\right) \cdots \Gamma \left(\beta _{k+1}\right)} z_{1}^{\beta _{1}-1} z_{2}^{\beta _{2}-1} \cdots z_{k}^{\beta _{k}-1}\left(1-z_{1}-z_{2}-\cdots -z_{k}\right)^{\beta _{k+1}-1}
Problem 4.14.59

Let Xr=(X1r,X2r,…,Xmr),1≤r≤n\mathbf{X}_{r} = \left(X_{1 r}, X_{2 r}, \ldots , X_{m r}\right), 1 \leq r \leq n, be independent multivariate normal random vectors having zero means and the same covariance matrix V=(vij)\mathbf{V} = \left(v_{i j}\right). Show that the two random variables

Sij=∑r=1nXirXjr−1n∑r=1nXir∑r=1nXjr,Tij=∑r=1n−1XirXjr S_{i j} = \sum _{r = 1}^{n} X_{i r} X_{j r}-\frac{1}{n} \sum _{r = 1}^{n} X_{i r} \sum _{r = 1}^{n} X_{j r}, \quad T_{i j} = \sum _{r = 1}^{n-1} X_{i r} X_{j r}

are identically distributed.

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Problem 4.14.60

Choose P,Q\mathrm{P}, \mathrm{Q}, and R independently at random in the square S(a)S(a) of side aa. Show that E[∣PQR∣]=11a2/144\mathbb {E}\left[\left|\mathrm{PQR}\right|\right] = 11 a^{2} / 144. Deduce that four points picked at random in a parallelogram form a convex quadrilateral with probability (56)2\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^{2}.

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Problem 4.14.61

Choose P,Q\mathrm{P}, \mathrm{Q}, and R uniformly at random within the convex region CC illustrated beneath. By considering the event that the convex hull of four randomly chosen points is a triangle, or otherwise, show that the mean area of the shaded region is three times the mean area of the triangle PQRP Q R.

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Problem 4.14.62

Let V\mathbf{V} be a positive-definite symmetric n×nn \times n matrix, and L\mathbf{L} a lower-triangular matrix such that V=L′L\mathbf{V} = \mathbf{L}^{\prime } \mathbf{L}; this is called the Cholesky decomposition of V\mathbf{V}. Let X=(X1,X2,…,Xn)\mathbf{X} = \left(X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{n}\right) be a vector of independent random variables distributed as N(0,1)N(0,1). Show that the vector Z=μ+XL\mathbf{Z} = \mathbf{\mu }+\mathbf{X L} has the multivariate normal distribution with mean vector μ\mathbf{\mu } and covariance matrix V\mathbf{V}.

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Problem 4.14.63

We need to decide whether or not AB=C\mathbf{A B} = \mathbf{C} where A,B,C\mathbf{A}, \mathbf{B}, \mathbf{C} are given n×nn \times n matrices, and we adopt the following random algorithm. Let x\mathbf{x} be a random {0,1}n\left\{ 0,1\right\}^{n}-valued vector, each of the 2n2^{n} possibilities being equally likely. If (AB−C)x=0(\mathbf{A B}-\mathbf{C}) \mathbf{x} = \mathbf{0}, we decide that AB=C\mathbf{A B} = \mathbf{C}, and otherwise we decide that AB≠C\mathbf{A B} \neq \mathbf{C}. Show that

P( the decision is correct ){=1 if AB=C≥12 if AB≠C \mathbb {P}\left(\text{ the decision is correct }\right) \begin{cases} = 1 & \text{ if } \mathbf{A B} = \mathbf{C} \\ \geq \frac{1}{2} & \text{ if } \mathbf{A B} \neq \mathbf{C}\end{cases}

Describe a similar procedure which results in an error probability which may be made as small as desired.

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Problem 4.14.64

Each box of cereal contains a worthless and inedible object. The objects in different boxes are independent and equally likely to be any of the nn available types. Let TnT_{n} be the number of boxes opened before collection of a full set.

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(a)

Use the result of Exercise (4.3.6) to show that

1nE[Tn]=∑r=1n(−1)r+1r(nr)=∑r=1n1r \frac{1}{n} \mathbb {E}\left[T_{n}\right] = \sum _{r = 1}^{n} \frac{(-1)^{r+1}}{r}\binom {n}{r} = \sum _{r = 1}^{n} \frac{1}{r}
(b)

Prove the above combinatorial identity directly.

(c)

By considering E[Tn2]\mathbb {E}\left[T_{n}^{2}\right], show that

2n∑r=1n(−1)r+1r2(nr)=∑r=1n1r2+n−1n∑r=1n1r+(∑r=1n1r)2 2 n \sum _{r = 1}^{n} \frac{(-1)^{r+1}}{r^{2}}\binom {n}{r} = \sum _{r = 1}^{n} \frac{1}{r^{2}}+\frac{n-1}{n} \sum _{r = 1}^{n} \frac{1}{r}+\left(\sum _{r = 1}^{n} \frac{1}{r}\right)^{2}
Problem 4.14.65

Points PP and QQ are picked independently and uniformly at random in the triangle ABCA B C, in such a way that the straight line passing through P and Q divides ABC into a triangle TT and a quadrilateral RR. Show that the ratio of the mean area of TT to that of RR is 4:54: 5.

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Problem 4.14.66

Let XX and YY be independent, identically distributed random variables with finite means. Show that

E[∣X−Y∣]≤E[∣X+Y∣] \mathbb {E}\left[\left|X-Y\right|\right] \leq \mathbb {E}\left[\left|X+Y\right|\right]

with equality if and only if their common distribution is symmetric about 0.

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Problem 4.14.67

Simulated order statistics. Let U1,U2,…,UnU_{1}, U_{2}, \ldots , U_{n} be independent and identically distributed on [0,1][0,1]. Define X1,X2,…,XnX_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{n} recursively as follows:

X1=U11/n,X2=X1U21/(n−1),…,Xj=Xj−1Uj1/(n−j+1),…,Xn=Xn−1Un X_{1} = U_{1}^{1 / n}, X_{2} = X_{1} U_{2}^{1 /(n-1)}, \ldots , X_{j} = X_{j-1} U_{j}^{1 /(n-j+1)}, \ldots , X_{n} = X_{n-1} U_{n}

Show that the random variables Xn<Xn−1<⋯<X1X_{n} < X_{n-1} < \cdots < X_{1} have the same joint distribution as the order statistics U(1),U(2),…,U(n)U_{(1)}, U_{(2)}, \ldots , U_{(n)}. You may do this in two different ways: first by construction, and second by using the change of variables formula.

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Problem 4.14.68

The value XX of a financial index in one year's time has the normal distribution with mean μ\mu and standard deviation σ>0\sigma > 0. You possess a derivative contract that will pay you max⁡{X−a,0}\max \left\{ X-a, 0\right\}, where aa is a predetermined constant. Show that the expected payout VV of the contract is given by V=σ{ϕ(y)−y(1−Φ(y))}V = \sigma \left\{ \phi (y)-y(1-\Phi (y))\right\}, where ϕ\phi and Φ\Phi are the N(0,1)N(0,1) density and distribution functions, and y=(a−μ)/σy = (a-\mu ) / \sigma. Deduce that, for large positive yy,

V≈σ3(a−μ)2ϕ((a−μ)/σ) V \approx \frac{\sigma ^{3}}{(a-\mu )^{2}} \phi ((a-\mu ) / \sigma )
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Problem 4.14.69

Let gg be the density function of a positive, unimodal random variable XX with finite variance, with a unique mode at 0 (so that gg is non-increasing on [0,∞)[0, \infty ), recall the definitions of Problem (2.7.23)). For any xx such that g(x)>0g(x) > 0, let y=x+g(x)−1∫x∞g(v)dvy = x+g(x)^{-1} \int_{x}^{\infty } g(v) d v.

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(a)

Prove that, for 0<x<y<∞0 < x < y < \infty, we have that (y−x)x2≤49∫0yv2dv(y-x) x^{2} \leq \frac{4}{9} \int_{0}^{y} v^{2} d v.

(b)

Deduce that

P(∣X∣>x)≤49x2E[X2],x>0 \mathbb {P}\left(|X| > x\right) \leq \frac{4}{9 x^{2}} \mathbb {E}\left[X^{2}\right], \quad x > 0
(c)

Prove the inequality of (b) for a continuous random variable XX with a unique mode at 0.

Problem 4.14.70

Let IiI_{i} be the indicator function of success in the ii th of nn independent trials. Let pi=E[Ii]=1−qi>0p_{i} = \mathbb {E}\left[I_{i}\right] = 1-q_{i} > 0, and let ri=pi/qir_{i} = p_{i} / q_{i} be the ii th 'odds ratio'. Let Rk=∑i=knriR_{k} = \sum_{i = k}^{n} r_{i}, and for the moment assume that pi<1p_{i} < 1 for all ii.

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(a)

Show that the probability of exactly one success after the kk th trial is σk=Rk+1∏i=k+1nqi\sigma_{k} = R_{k+1} \prod_{i = k+1}^{n} q_{i}.

(b)

Prove that σk\sigma_{k} is a unimodal function of kk, in that there is a unique mm such that σk\sigma_{k} is greatest either for k=mk = m or for k∈{m,m+1}k \in \left\{ m, m+1\right\}.

(c)

It is desired to stop the process at the last success. Show that the optimal rule for achieving this is to stop at the first success at time τ\tau or later, where τ=max⁡{1,max⁡{k:Rk≥1}}\tau = \max \left\{ 1, \max \left\{ k: R_{k} \geq 1\right\} \right\}.

(d)

What can be said if pi=1p_{i} = 1 for some ii?

(e)

Show that the probability of stopping at the final success is στ=Rτ∏i=τnqi\sigma_{\tau } = R_{\tau } \prod_{i = \tau }^{n} q_{i}.

(f)

Use this result to solve the marriage problem (4.14.35).

Problem 4.14.71

Let X0,X1,…,XnX_{0}, X_{1}, \ldots , X_{n} be non-negative, independent random variables. Their values are revealed to you in order, and you are required to stop the process at some time TT, and exit with XTX_{T}. Your target is to maximize E[XT]\mathbb {E}\left[X_{T}\right], and you are permitted to choose any 'stopping strategy' TT that depends only on the past and present values X0,X1,…,XTX_{0}, X_{1}, \ldots , X_{T}. (Such a random variable is called a 'stopping time', see Exercise (6.1.6).)

Show that E[max⁡rXr]≤2sup⁡TE[XT]\mathbb {E}\left[\max_{r} X_{r}\right] \leq 2 \sup_{T} \mathbb {E}\left[X_{T}\right], where sup⁡T\sup_{T} is the supremum over all stopping strategies.

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Problem 4.14.72

A stick of length ss is broken at nn points chosen independently and uniformly in the interval [0,s][0, s]. Let the order statistics of the resulting lengths of sticks be S1<S2<⋯<Sn+1S_{1} < S_{2} < \cdots < S_{n+1}. Fix y>0y > 0 and write pn(s,y)=P(S1>y)p_{n}(s, y) = \mathbb {P}\left(S_{1} > y\right). Show that

pn+1(s,y)=n+1sn+1∫0s−yxnpn(x,y)dx p_{n+1}(s, y) = \frac{n+1}{s^{n+1}} \int _{0}^{s-y} x^{n} p_{n}(x, y) d x

Deduce that

(i) pn(s,y)=s−n{(s−(n+1)y)+}np_{n}(s, y) = s^{-n}\left\{ (s-(n+1) y)^{+}\right\}^{n} for n≥1n \geq 1, where x+=max⁡{0,x}x^{+} = \max \left\{ 0, x\right\}.

(ii) E[S1]=s/(n+1)2\mathbb {E}\left[S_{1}\right] = s /(n+1)^{2}.

(iii) E[Sr]=s(Hn+1−Hn−r+1)/(n+1)\mathbb {E}\left[S_{r}\right] = s\left(H_{n+1}-H_{n-r+1}\right) /(n+1), where Hk=∑r=1kr−1H_{k} = \sum_{r = 1}^{k} r^{-1}.

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Problem 4.14.73

Let α>−1\alpha > -1, and let XX and YY have joint density function f(x,y)=cxαf(x, y) = c x^{\alpha } for x,y∈(0,1)x, y \in (0,1), x+y>1x+y > 1. We set f(x,y)=0f(x, y) = 0 for other pairs x,yx, y.

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(a)

Find the value of cc and the joint distribution function of X,YX, Y.

(b)

Show that it is possible to construct a triangle with side-lengths X,Y,2−X−YX, Y, 2-X-Y, with probability one.

(c)

Show that the angle opposite the side with length YY is obtuse with probability

π=c∫01xα+1−xα+22−xdx \pi = c \int _{0}^{1} \frac{x^{\alpha +1}-x^{\alpha +2}}{2-x} d x

and find π\pi when α=0\alpha = 0.

Problem 4.14.74

You are driving at constant speed vv along a vast multi-lane highway, and other traffic in the same direction is moving at independent random speeds having the same distribution as a random variable XX with density function ff and finite variance.

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(a)

Show that the expected value of the speed of vehicles passing you or being passed by you is

m(v)=E[X∣X−v∣]E[∣X−v∣] m(v) = \frac{\mathbb {E}\left[X\left|X-v\right|\right]}{\mathbb {E}\left[\left|X-v\right|\right]}
(b)

Suppose that ff is symmetric about its mean μ\mu, and that v<μv < \mu. Show that the difference m(v)−μm(v)-\mu is positive, and that it has a maximum value for some value v=vmax⁡<μv = v_{\max } < \mu.

(c)

What can be said if v>μv > \mu? Discuss.

(d)

Suppose XX is uniformly distributed on the interval {60,61,…,80}\left\{ 60,61, \ldots , 80\right\}. Show for v=63v = 63 that m(v)≈74m(v) \approx 74, while for v=77v = 77 we have m(v)≈66m(v) \approx 66.