Bayesian linear regression

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Prove that with the priors of Section 10.7.3 , the posterior mean of γ\gamma is just the ridge estimate (10.64).

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Prove that with the priors of Section 10.7.3 , the prior distribution of α^\widehat{\mathbf{\alpha }} is Np−1[0,σ2(Λ−1+k−1Ip−1)]N_{p-1}\left[\mathbf{0}, \sigma^{2}\left(\mathbf{\Lambda }^{-1}+k^{-1} \mathbf{I}_{p-1}\right)\right].

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Verify that the marginal distribution of Y\mathbf{Y} in the Bayesian setup of Section 12.5.1 is Np(0,(σ2+σ02)Ip)N_{p}\left(\mathbf{0},\left(\sigma^{2}+\sigma_{0}^{2}\right) \mathbf{I}_{p}\right).

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Verify (12.65). Hint: Use the partitioned matrix inverse formula A.9.1 and multiply out the quadratic form.

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Find the form of the posterior predictive density for straight-line regression. Assume that the explanatory variable has been centered and that the prior mean is zero. Also assume that you are predicting a single value (i.e., assume that m=1m = 1).

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Derive equations (3.60) and (3.61).

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Using the noninformative prior for θ\theta, show that the conditional posterior density f(β∣y,σ)f(\beta \mid \mathbf{y}, \sigma ) is multivariate normal. Hence deduce that the posterior mean of β\mathbf{\beta } is β^\widehat{\mathbf{\beta }}.

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Suppose that we use the noninformative prior for θ\mathbf{\theta }.

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(a)

If v=σ2v = \sigma^{2}, show that f(v)∝1/vf(v) \propto 1 / v.

(b)

Obtain an expression proportional to f(β,v∣y)f(\mathbf{\beta }, v \mid \mathbf{y}).

(c)

Using (3.62), integrate out β\beta to obtain

f(v∣y)∝v−(ν/2+1)exp⁡(−av) f(v \mid \mathbf{y}) \propto v^{-(\nu / 2+1)} \exp \left(-\frac{a}{v}\right)

where ν=n−p\nu = n-p and a=∥y−Xβ^∥2/2a = \left\| \mathbf{y}-\mathbf{X} \widehat{\mathbf{\beta }}\right\|^{2} / 2.

(d)

Find the posterior mean of vv.

Consider the linear model with observed vector XX having distribution Nn(Zβ,σ2In)N_n(Z\beta ,\sigma^2I_n), where ZZ is an n×pn\times p known matrix, p<np<n, β∈Rp\beta \in \mathbb {R}^{p}, and σ2>0\sigma^2>0.

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(i)

Assume that σ2\sigma^2 is known. Derive the posterior distribution of β\beta when the prior distribution for β\beta is Np(β0,σ2V)N_p(\beta_0,\sigma^2V), where β0∈Rp\beta_0\in \mathbb {R}^{p} is known and VV is a known positive definite matrix, and find the Bayes estimator of lτβl^\tau \beta under the squared error loss, where l∈Rpl\in \mathbb {R}^{p} is known.

(ii)

Show that the Bayes estimator in (i) is admissible and consistent as n→∞n\to \infty, assuming that the minimum eigenvalue of ZτZ→∞Z^\tau Z\to \infty.

(iii)

Repeat (i) and (ii) when σ2\sigma^2 is unknown and σ−2\sigma^{-2} has the gamma distribution with shape parameter α\alpha and scale parameter γ\gamma, where α\alpha and γ\gamma are known.

(iv)

In part (iii), obtain Bayes estimators of σ2\sigma^2 and lτβ/σl^\tau \beta /\sigma under the squared error loss and show that they are consistent under the condition in (ii).

Remark.
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Corresponding exercise in Shao (2003): 4.36.

References

[SeLe03] Seber G.A., Lee A.J. Linear Regression Analysis. 2nd ed., John Wiley & Sons, 2003.
[Sha05] Shao J. Mathematical Statistics: Exercises and Solutions. Springer, 2005.