Chapter 7

Polynomial Regression

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Problem 7.1

Using the method of orthogonal polynomials described in Section 7.1.2, fit a third-degree equation to the following data:

y (index): 9.811.013.215.116.0x (year): 19501951195219531954 \begin{array}{llllll} y \text{ (index): } & 9.8 & 11.0 & 13.2 & 15.1 & 16.0 \\ x \text{ (year): } & 1950 & 1951 & 1952 & 1953 & 1954 \end{array}

Test the hypothesis that a second-degree equation is adequate.

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Problem 7.2

Show that the least squares estimates of β1\beta_{1} and β2\beta_{2} for the model (7.28) are still unbiased even when the true model includes an interaction term β12\beta_{12}, that is,

E[Y]=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β12x1x2 \mathbb {E}\left[Y\right] = \beta _{0}+\beta _{1} x_{1}+\beta _{2} x_{2}+\beta _{12} x_{1} x_{2}

Find the least squares estimate of β12\beta_{12}.

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Problem 7.3

Suppose that the regression curve

E[Y]=β0+β1x+β2x2 \mathbb {E}\left[Y\right] = \beta _{0}+\beta _{1} x+\beta _{2} x^{2}

has a local maximum at x=xmx = x_{m} where xmx_{m} is near the origin. If YY is observed at nn points xi(i=1,2,…,n)x_{i}(i = 1,2, \ldots , n) in [−a,a]\left[-a, a\right], xˉ=0\bar{x} = 0, and the usual normality assumptions hold, outline a method for finding a confidence interval for xmx_{m}. Hint: Use the method of Section 6.1.2.

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