Chapter 11

Exponential tails and the law of the iterated logarithm

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Problem 11.1

Let XX have a Bin⁡(n,p)\operatorname {Bin}(n, p) distribution. Define q:=1−pq: = 1-p. For 0≤x≤nq0 \leq x \leq n q, show that

P(X≥np+x)≤exp⁡(−x22npq(qψ(xnp)+pψ(−xnq)))≤exp⁡(−x22npqψ(x(q−p)npq)) \begin{align} \mathbb {P}\left(X \geq n p+x\right) & \leq \exp \left(-\frac{x^{2}}{2 n p q}\left(q \psi \left(\frac{x}{n p}\right)+p \psi \left(\frac{-x}{n q}\right)\right)\right) \\ & \leq \exp \left(-\frac{x^{2}}{2 n p q} \psi \left(\frac{x(q-p)}{n p q}\right)\right) \end{align}
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Problem 11.2

Let X1,…,XnX_{1}, \ldots , X_{n} be independent random variables with E[Xi]:=pi\mathbb {E}\left[X_{i}\right]: = p_{i} and 0≤Xi≤10 \leq X_{i} \leq 1 for each ii. Let p:=(p1+⋯+pn)/n=:1−qp: = \left(p_{1}+\cdots +p_{n}\right) / n = : 1-q. Show that

P(∑i≤nXi≥np+x)≤exp⁡(−x22npqψ(x(q−p)npq)) for 0≤x≤nq \mathbb {P}\left(\sum _{i \leq n} X_{i} \geq n p+x\right) \leq \exp \left(-\frac{x^{2}}{2 n p q} \psi \left(\frac{x(q-p)}{n p q}\right)\right) \quad \text{ for } 0 \leq x \leq n q
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Problem 11.3

Suppose XX has a Poisson (λ\lambda) distribution.

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(i)

By direct minimization of exp⁡(−t(λ+x))E[exp⁡(tX)]\exp (-t(\lambda +x)) \mathbb {E}\left[\exp (t X)\right] over R+\mathbb {R}^{+}, prove that

P(X≥λ+x)≤exp⁡(−x22λψ(xλ)) \mathbb {P}\left(X \geq \lambda +x\right) \leq \exp \left(-\frac{x^{2}}{2 \lambda } \psi \left(\frac{x}{\lambda }\right)\right)
(ii)

Derive the same tail bound by a passage to the limit in the binomial bound from Problem [1].

Problem 11.4

For each random variable XX with finite variance, and each constant MM, show that Var⁡[τ(X,M)]≤Var⁡[X]\operatorname {Var}\left[\tau (X, M)\right] \leq \operatorname {Var}\left[X\right], with τ\tau as defined in ⟨26⟩\langle 26 \rangle: for a constant M>0M > 0, τ(x,M):=−M{x<−M}+x{∣x∣≤M}+M{x>M}\tau (x, M): = -M\left\{ x < -M\right\} +x\left\{ \left|x\right| \leq M\right\} +M\left\{ x > M\right\}, the truncation of xx to [−M,M][-M, M].

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Problem 11.5

Let {Xn}\left\{ X_{n}\right\} be a sequence of independent, identically distributed two-dimensional random vectors with E[Xi]=0\mathbb {E}\left[X_{i}\right] = 0 and Var⁡[Xi]=I2\operatorname {Var}\left[X_{i}\right] = I_{2}. Define Sn=X1+…+XnS_{n} = X_{1}+\ldots +X_{n}.

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(i)

Show that lim⁡sup⁡∣Sn∣/Ln≤1\lim \sup \left|S_{n}\right| / L_{n} \leq 1 almost surely.

(ii)

Show that, with probability one, the sequence Sn/LnS_{n} / L_{n} visits every open subset of the unit ball {∣x∣<1}\left\{ \left|x\right| < 1\right\} infinitely often. Hint: Project three-dimensional random vectors.