Chapter 1.11

Random Walk. The Borel–Cantelli Lemma

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Problem 1.11.1

Let x,n∈Nx, n \in \mathbb {N}. Then the fraction of paths from (0,0)(0,0) to (n,x)(n, x) that do not cross the zero level, out of the total number of paths from (0,0)(0,0) to (n,x)(n, x), equals xn\frac{x}{n}.

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Problem 1.11.2

Let S0=0S_{0} = 0.

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(a)

Prove that for n≥1n \geq 1, b=−n,−(n−1),…,−1,0,1,…,n−1,nb = -n, -(n-1), \ldots , -1, 0, 1, \ldots , n-1, n we have

P(S2⋅S4⋅…⋅S2n≠0,S2n=2b)=∣b∣nP(S2n=2b) \mathbb {P}\left(S_{2} \cdot S_{4} \cdot \ldots \cdot S_{2n} \neq 0, S_{2n} = 2b\right) = \frac{|b|}{n} \mathbb {P}\left(S_{2n} = 2b\right)
(b)

Prove that

P(S2⋅S4⋅…⋅S2n≠0)=12nE[∣S2n∣] \mathbb {P}\left(S_{2} \cdot S_{4} \cdot \ldots \cdot S_{2n} \neq 0\right) = \frac{1}{2n} \mathbb {E}\left[\left|S_{2n}\right|\right]
(c)

Find the probability that the random walk never returns to 00. In other words, find

lim⁡n→∞P(S2≠0,…,S2n≠0) \lim _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(S_{2} \neq 0, \ldots , S_{2 n} \neq 0\right)
Problem 1.11.3

Let (Sn;n∈N)\left(S_{n} ; n \in \mathbb {N}\right) be a symmetric random walk on the line. Using the reflection principle, prove that

P(max⁡k≤nSk≥N;Sn<N)=P(Sn>N) \mathbb {P}\left(\max _{k \leq n} S_{k} \geq N ; S_{n}<N\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(S_{n}>N\right)
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Problem 1.11.4

Let (Sn;n∈N)\left(S_{n} ; n \in \mathbb {N}\right) be a symmetric random walk on the line.

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(a)

Find the distribution1 of the random variable Mn=max⁡k≤nSkM_{n}=\max_{k \leq n} S_{k};

Footnotes

  1. Finding the distribution of a random variable XX means finding some exhaustive characteristic of the distribution. For example, the distribution function FF or the survival function SS (S(x)=1−F(x)=P(X>x))(S(x) = 1 - F(x) = \mathbb {P}\left(X > x\right)). In the case of a discrete distribution on some at-most-countable set BB, a characteristic of the distribution is the probability function p(x)=P(X=x),  x∈Bp(x) = \mathbb {P}\left(X = x\right), \; x \in B. An absolutely continuous distribution can be characterized by its density.

    The distribution can also be uniquely specified by its characteristic function (Fourier transform).

    When asked to find the distribution, it suffices to provide one of the functions listed above, whichever is easier to find. ↩

(b)

Find the asymptotics of E[Mn]\mathbb {E}\left[M_n\right] as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty.

Problem 1.11.5

Let (Sn;n∈N)\left(S_{n} ; n \in \mathbb {N}\right) be a random walk with probability pp of stepping right and qq of stepping left, p+q=1p+q=1. Prove that for m≤Nm \leq N we have

P(max⁡k≤nSk≥N;Sn=m)=Cnupvqn−v \mathbb {P}\left(\max _{k \leq n} S_{k} \geq N ; S_{n}=m\right) = C_{n}^{u} p^{v} q^{n-v}

where v=n+m2,u=v−Nv=\frac{n+m}{2}, u=v-N.

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Problem 1.11.6

Let (Sn,n∈N)\left(S_{n}, n \in \mathbb {N}\right) be a symmetric random walk on the line. Prove the equality

P(max⁡k≤nSk=N;Sn=m)=P(Sn=2N−m)−P(Sn=2N−m+2) \mathbb {P}\left(\max _{k \leq n} S_{k}=N ; S_{n}=m\right)=\mathbb {P}\left(S_{n}=2 N-m\right)-\mathbb {P}\left(S_{n}=2 N-m+2\right)
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Problem 1.11.7

Let the random walk Sn=∑i=1nξiS_{n}=\sum_{i=1}^{n} \xi_{i}, where ξi,i=1,…,n\xi_{i}, i=1, \ldots , n, are jointly independent and P(ξi=a)=p,P(ξi=−b)=1−p,a,b∈N\mathbb {P}\left(\xi_{i}=a\right)=p, \mathbb {P}\left(\xi_{i}=-b\right)=1-p, a, b \in \mathbb {N}. Find P(Sn=x)\mathbb {P}\left(S_{n}=x\right).

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Problem 1.11.8

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with distribution function F(x)=(1−1x+1e−x)⋅I{x>0}F(x)=\left(1-\frac{1}{x+1} e^{-x}\right) \cdot I\left\{ x>0\right\}. Show that

P(lim‾⁡n→∞ξnln⁡n=1)=1 \mathbb {P}\left(\varlimsup _{n \rightarrow \infty } \frac{\xi _{n}}{\ln n}=1\right)=1
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Problem 1.11.9

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables, ξi∼N(0,1)\xi_{i} \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1). Show that

P(lim‾⁡n→∞ξn2ln⁡n=1)=1 \mathbb {P}\left(\varlimsup _{n \rightarrow \infty } \frac{\xi _{n}}{\sqrt{2 \ln n}}=1\right)=1
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Problem 1.11.10

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables, ξi∼Pois⁡(λ),λ>\xi_{i} \sim \operatorname {Pois}(\lambda ), \lambda > 0. Show that, regardless of λ\lambda,

P(lim‾⁡n→∞ξnln⁡ln⁡nln⁡n=1)=1 \mathbb {P}\left(\varlimsup _{n \rightarrow \infty } \frac{\xi _{n} \ln \ln n}{\ln n}=1\right)=1
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