Part VI

Limit Theorems

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Problem 25.1

Suppose the CLT holds for a sequence {ξn}\{ \xi_{n}\}, and Var⁡[Sn]=o(n2)\operatorname {Var}\left[S_{n}\right] = o(n^{2}) as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty. Prove that the LLN then holds as well.

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Problem 25.2

Give an example showing that the Lyapunov condition is not necessary for the CLT to hold.

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Problem 25.3

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a uniformly bounded sequence of independent random variables, i.e., there exists a constant A<∞A < \infty such that ∣ξn∣<A\left|\xi_{n}\right| < A for all nn. Let Sn=ξ1+…+ξnS_{n} = \xi_{1} + \ldots + \xi_{n}. Prove that the sequence {ξn}\{ \xi_{n}\} satisfies the CLT if Var⁡[Sn]→∞\operatorname {Var}\left[S_{n}\right] \rightarrow \infty.

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Problem 25.4

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with finite, nonzero variance. Prove that for any aa and bb

lim⁡n→∞P(a⩽Sn⩽b)=0. \lim _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(a \leqslant S_{n} \leqslant b\right) = 0.
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Problem 25.5

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with finite variance. Prove that for any bb the limit

lim⁡n→∞P(Sn<b) \lim _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(S_{n} < b\right)

equals either 0, 1, or 1/2. Find the conditions under which each of these situations occurs.

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Problem 25.6

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent identically distributed (nondegenerate) random variables with zero mean and finite variance. Prove that for any b>0b > 0 the limit

lim⁡n→∞P(∣Snnα∣<b) \lim _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(\left|\frac{S_{n}}{n^{\alpha }}\right| < b\right)

equals 0 for α<1/2\alpha < 1/2 and 1 for α>1/2\alpha > 1/2.

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Problem 25.7

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent identically distributed (nondegenerate) random variables with zero mean and finite variance. Find the limit

lim⁡n→∞P(∣Snn∣<b). \lim _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(\left|\frac{S_{n}}{\sqrt{n}}\right| < b\right).
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Problem 25.8

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with zero mean and finite variance. Find Var⁡[ξ1]\operatorname {Var}\left[\xi_{1}\right] if:

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(a)

lim⁡n→∞P(Snn>1)=13\lim_{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(\frac{S_{n}}{\sqrt{n}} > 1\right) = \frac{1}{3};

(b)

lim⁡n→∞P(∣Snn∣>1)=15\lim_{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(\left|\frac{S_{n}}{\sqrt{n}}\right| > 1\right) = \frac{1}{5}.

Problem 25.9

The random variable ηn\eta_{n} has a Poisson distribution with parameter nn. Does the limit as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty of the ratio (ηn−n)/n(\eta_{n} - n)/\sqrt{n} exist?

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Problem 25.10

Prove that as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty

e−n∑k=0nnkk!→12. e^{-n} \sum _{k=0}^{n} \frac{n^{k}}{k!} \rightarrow \frac{1}{2}.
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Problem 25.11

The random variable ηn\eta_{n} has a binomial distribution with parameters nn and 1/2. Does the limit as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty of the ratio (2ηn−n)/n(2\eta_{n} - n)/\sqrt{n} exist?

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Problem 25.12

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent random variables. Let ξn\xi_{n} take the values nn and −n-n with equal probabilities. Does the distribution of the ratio converge to a normal law:

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(a)

Sn/nS_{n}/\sqrt{n};

(b)

Sn/Var⁡[Sn]S_{n}/\sqrt{\operatorname {Var}\left[S_{n}\right]}?

Problem 25.13

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent random variables. Let ξn\xi_{n} take the values nn, −n-n, and 0 with probabilities:

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(a)

1/2n21/2n^{2}, 1/2n21/2n^{2}, and 1−1/n21 - 1/n^{2};

(b)

1/2n1/2\sqrt{n}, 1/2n1/2\sqrt{n}, and 1−1/n1 - 1/\sqrt{n};

(c)

1/41/4, 1/41/4, and 1/21/2;

(d)

2−n2^{-n}, 2−n2^{-n}, and 1−2−n+11 - 2^{-n+1}.

Does the CLT hold for the sequence {ξn}\{ \xi_{n}\}?

Problem 25.14

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent random variables. Let ξn\xi_{n} take the values n\sqrt{n}, −n-\sqrt{n}, and 0 with probabilities 1/2n1/2n, 1/2n1/2n, and 1−1/n1 - 1/n respectively. Does the CLT hold for the sequence {ξn}\{ \xi_{n}\}?

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Problem 25.15

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent random variables. Let ξn\xi_{n} take the values 2n2^{n} and −2n-2^{n} with probability 1/21/2 each. Does the CLT hold for the sequence {ξn}\{ \xi_{n}\}?

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Problem 25.16

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent random variables. Let ξn\xi_{n} take the values 2n2^{n}, −2n-2^{n}, and 0 with probabilities 2−(2n+1)2^{-(2n+1)}, 2−(2n+1)2^{-(2n+1)}, and 1−2−2n1 - 2^{-2n} respectively. Does the CLT hold for the sequence {ξn}\{ \xi_{n}\}?

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Problem 25.17

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent random variables. Let ξn\xi_{n} be uniformly distributed on the segment [an−1,an+1][a_{n} - 1, a_{n} + 1], where ∑n∣an∣<∞\sum_{n} \left|a_{n}\right| < \infty. Find

lim⁡n→∞P(0<Snn<1). \lim _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(0 < \frac{S_{n}}{\sqrt{n}} < 1\right).
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Problem 25.18

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent random variables. Let ξn\xi_{n} take the values 1 and −1-1 with probability (1−2−n)/2(1 - 2^{-n})/2 each, and the values 2n2^{n} and −2n-2^{n} with probability 2−n−12^{-n-1} each. Prove that the CLT holds for the sequence {ξn}\{ \xi_{n}\}.

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Problem 25.19

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots have a Poisson distribution with parameter λ\lambda. Does the weak limit as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty of the expression

1n∑i=1n(ξ2i−1−ξ2i)? \frac{1}{\sqrt{n}} \sum _{i=1}^{n} (\xi _{2i-1} - \xi _{2i})?

exist?

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Problem 25.20

Let ξ\xi and η\eta be independent identically distributed random variables with finite variance. Prove that if the variables ξ+η\xi + \eta and ξ−η\xi - \eta are independent, then ξ\xi and η\eta have a normal distribution, possibly degenerate.

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Problem 25.21

Let ξ\xi and η\eta be independent identically distributed random variables with zero mean and finite variance. Using the CLT, prove that if ξ\xi and (ξ+η)/2(\xi + \eta )/\sqrt{2} have the same nondegenerate distribution, then that distribution is normal.

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Problem 25.22

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent random variables. Let ξn\xi_{n} take the values ana_{n}, −an-a_{n}, and 0 with probabilities pnp_{n}, pnp_{n}, and 1−2pn1 - 2p_{n} respectively. Find conditions on the constants ana_{n} and pnp_{n} that ensure the CLT holds for the sequence {ξn}\{ \xi_{n}\}.

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Problem 25.23

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent random variables. When nn is a perfect square, ξn\xi_{n} takes the values −n-\sqrt{n} and n\sqrt{n} with probability 1/21/2 each; for all other nn, ξn\xi_{n} takes the values −1-1 and 1 with probability 1/21/2 each. Does the CLT hold for the sequence {ξn}\{ \xi_{n}\}?

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Problem 25.24

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be independent identically distributed random variables with E[ξ1]=0\mathbb {E}\left[\xi_{1}\right] = 0 and Var⁡[ξ1]=1\operatorname {Var}\left[\xi_{1}\right] = 1. Find the limiting distribution of the random variables

ηn=nξ1+…+ξnξ12+…+ξn2andζn=ξ1+…+ξnξ12+…+ξn2. \eta _{n} = \sqrt{n} \frac{\xi _{1} + \ldots + \xi _{n}}{\xi _{1}^{2} + \ldots + \xi _{n}^{2}} \quad \text{and} \quad \zeta _{n} = \frac{\xi _{1} + \ldots + \xi _{n}}{\sqrt{\xi _{1}^{2} + \ldots + \xi _{n}^{2}}}.
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Problem 25.25

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with E[ξ1]=0\mathbb {E}\left[\xi_{1}\right] = 0 and Var⁡[ξ1]=σ2>0\operatorname {Var}\left[\xi_{1}\right] = \sigma^{2} > 0. Do the quantities

ξ1+…+ξnn? \frac{\xi _{1} + \ldots + \xi _{n}}{\sqrt{n}}?

converge in probability as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty?

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Problem 26.1

It is known that left-handed people make up 1 on average. Estimate the probability that at least four left-handed people will be found among:

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(a)

200 people;

(b)

10,000 people.

Problem 26.2

The probability of hitting a target with a single shot is 0.001. Hitting the target requires at least two hits. 5,000 independent shots are fired. Find the probability of hitting the target.

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Problem 26.3

In a certain group of people, colorblind individuals make up 1. Find the probability that among 100 people:

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(a)

there are no colorblind individuals;

(b)

there are two or more colorblind individuals.

Problem 26.4

It is known that the probability of a boy being born is approximately 0.515. What is the probability that among 10 thousand newborns, the number of boys will be no greater than the number of girls?

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Problem 26.5

A country has 10 million voters, of whom 5.5 million belong to party A and 4.5 million belong to party B. 20,000 electors are chosen by lottery. What is the probability that a majority of the electors will be supporters of party B?

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Problem 26.6

Among wheat seeds, 0.6 are weed seeds. What is the probability that a random sample of 1,000 seeds will contain:

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(a)

at least 3 weed seeds;

(b)

at most 16 weed seeds;

(c)

exactly 6 weed seeds?

Problem 26.7

A book of 500 pages contains 50 typos. Estimate the probability that a randomly chosen page contains at least 3 typos.

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Problem 26.8

For a person who has reached age 20, the probability of death during the 21st year of life is 0.006. A group of 10,000 people of age 20 is insured, with each insured person paying 1 ruble 20 kopecks in premiums for the year. In the event of the death of an insured person, the insurance company pays their heirs 100 rubles. What is the probability that by the end of the year the insurance company:

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(a)

will operate at a loss;

(b)

its income will exceed 6,000 rubles;

(c)

its income will exceed 4,000 rubles?

Problem 26.9

The probability that an individual drill bit comes out overly brittle (defective) is 0.02. Drill bits are packed into boxes of 100. What is the probability that:

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(a)

a box contains no defective drill bits;

(b)

the number of defective drill bits is at most 2?

(c)

What is the smallest number of drill bits that must be placed in a box so that, with probability at least 0.9, it contains at least 100 non-defective ones?

Problem 26.10

How many raisins, on average, should high-calorie buns contain so that the probability of a bun having at least one raisin is at least 0.99?

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Problem 26.11

A theater seating 1,000 people has two separate entrances. Each entrance has its own coat-check room. How many spots should each coat-check room have so that, on average in 99 cases out of 100, all spectators can check their coats at the coat-check of the entrance they came in through? Assume spectators arrive in pairs, and each pair independently of the others chooses either entrance with probability 1/2. By how much can the number of coat-check spots be reduced if spectators arrive one at a time, also independently of each other, choosing either entrance with equal probability?

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Problem 26.12

A village has 2,500 residents. Each of them travels to the city by train about 6 times a month, choosing the days of travel at random and independently of the others. What is the smallest capacity the train should have so that it becomes overcrowded on average no more than once every 100 days (the train runs once a day)?

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Problem 26.13

A certain machine consists of 10 thousand parts. Each part, independently of the others, may turn out to be defective with probability pip_{i}, where for n1=1,000n_{1} = 1{,}000 parts p1=0.0003p_{1} = 0.0003, for n2=2,000n_{2} = 2{,}000 parts p2=0.0002p_{2} = 0.0002, and for n3=7,000n_{3} = 7{,}000 parts p3=0.0001p_{3} = 0.0001. The machine fails to work if at least two parts are defective. Find the probability that the machine will not work.

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Problem 26.14

To test the effect of a new drug on blood pressure, the blood pressure of 100 patients was measured before and after taking the drug. It turned out that in 32 cases the pressure increased after taking the drug, and in 68 cases it decreased. Can it be considered established that this drug affects blood pressure? What is the probability that purely random fluctuations in pressure would produce a deviation from 50 at least as large?

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Problem 26.15

A die is thrown 1,000 times. Find the limits within which, with probability at least 0.99, the total number of points lies.

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Problem 26.16

A die is thrown repeatedly until the running total of points exceeds 700. Estimate the probability that this will require:

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(a)

more than 210 throws;

(b)

fewer than 180 throws;

(c)

between 180 and 210 throws?

Problem 26.17

Estimate the probability that the number of times a one comes up in 12,000 throws of a die lies between 1,900 and 2,150.

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Problem 26.18

When shooting at a target, a marksman hits the ten-ring with probability 0.5; the nine-ring — with probability 0.3; the eight-ring — with probability 0.1; the seven-ring — with probability 0.05; the six-ring — with probability 0.05. The marksman fires 100 shots. What is the probability that he scores:

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(a)

more than 980 points;

(b)

more than 920 points?

Problem 26.19

When compiling a statistical report, 10410^{4} numbers must be added, each of which has been rounded to a precision of 10−m10^{-m}. Suppose the errors arising from rounding the numbers are mutually independent and uniformly distributed on the interval (−0.5⋅10−m,0.5⋅10−m)(-0.5 \cdot 10^{-m}, 0.5 \cdot 10^{-m}). Find the limits within which, with probability at least 0.997, the total error will lie.

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Problem 26.20

The yield of a potato bush is 0 kg with probability 0.1; 1 kg with probability 0.2; 1.5 kg with probability 0.2; 2 kg with probability 0.3; 2.5 kg with probability 0.2. A plot has 900 bushes planted. Within what limits will the yield lie with probability 0.95? What is the smallest number of bushes that should be planted so that, with probability at least 0.975, the yield is at least one ton?

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Problem 26.21

The unit of length "foot," as the name suggests, is the length of a foot. But, as is well known, foot sizes vary. In 16th-century Germany, people would resolve this in the following manner. On a Sunday, the first 16 men to come out of church would be lined up side by side. The sum of the lengths of their left feet was divided by 16. The average length was then the "true and lawful" foot. It is known that the foot size of an adult man is a random variable with a normal distribution with mean 262.5 mm and standard deviation σ=12\sigma = 12 mm. Find the probability that two "true and lawful" foot values, determined from two different groups of men, differ by more than 5 mm. How many men would need to be taken so that, with probability at least 0.99, the average foot size of the group differs from 262.5 mm by less than 0.5 mm?

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Problem 26.22

On an exam, a student receives a grade of 5 with probability 0.2; 4 with probability 0.4; 3 with probability 0.3; and 2 with probability 0.1. Over the course of their studies they take 40 exams. Find the limits within which, with probability 0.95, the student's average grade lies.

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Problem 26.23

There are 1,000 rectangular parallelepipeds, each of whose sides independently takes the value 1/2 or 1 with probabilities 0.3 and 0.7 respectively. Let VV be the total volume of these parallelepipeds. Estimate the probability that 590<V<605590 < V < 605.

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Problem 26.24

An angler cast his fishing rod 80 times. What is the probability that he caught at least one fish, if on average one fish is caught per 200 casts?

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Problem 26.25

Suppose that when a book is typeset, there is a constant probability p=0.0001p = 0.0001 that any given letter will be typeset incorrectly. After typesetting, the galley proof is read by a proofreader, who catches each typo with probability q=0.9q = 0.9. After the proofreader, the author reads it, catching each of the remaining typos with probability r=0.5r = 0.5. Find the probability that a book with a million printed characters will have fewer than 10 unnoticed typos remaining after this process.

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Problem 26.26

Find the probability that among 10,000 random digits, the digit 7 appears no more than 968 times.

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Problem 26.27

How many random digits must be taken so that the probability of the digit 7 appearing among them is at least 9/10?

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Problem 26.28

A coin is tossed 1,000 times. For what kk does the number of heads lie between 490 and kk with probability 1/2?

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Problem 26.29

In n=14,400n = 14{,}400 coin tosses, heads came up 7,377 times. How probable is a deviation of the number of heads from n/2n/2 this large or larger?

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Problem 26.30

In a certain group of people, colorblind individuals make up 1. How large must a random sample be so that the probability of it containing at least one colorblind individual is at least 0.95?

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Problem 26.31

In a jury consisting of an odd number n=2m+1n = 2m+1 of members, each independently of the others reaches the correct decision with probability p=0.7p = 0.7. What is the minimum number of jury members for which the decision reached by majority vote will be fair with probability at least 0.99?

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Problem 26.32

Two vessels AA and BB are taken, each with a volume of 1 dm3^{3} and containing 2.7⋅10222.7 \cdot 10^{22} gas molecules. These vessels are brought into contact so that a free exchange of molecules occurs between them. What is the probability that after one day, one of the vessels will have at least one ten-billionth more molecules than the other?

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Problem 26.33

How many times must a die be thrown so that, with probability 1/2, the sum of the points rolled exceeds 100?

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Problem 26.34

A factory has 300 identical machines. On average, 70 of the machines are operating each day, while the rest are under repair. How much energy capacity should the factory be provided with so that, with probability 0.999, all the machines in working order can operate?

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Problem 26.35

A hiking route consists of 10 separate stages. The length of each stage is measured on the map to the nearest whole kilometer. What is the probability that the error in determining the total length of the route due to this rounding will not exceed 1.5 km?

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Problem 26.36

A person stands on the street selling newspapers. Suppose each passerby buys a newspaper with probability 1/3. Let ξ\xi denote the number of people who pass by the seller during the time it takes to sell the first 100 copies of the newspaper. Find the approximate distribution of ξ\xi.

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