Section 35

Discrete-Time Branching Processes

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Problem 35.1

Let ξ0,ξ1,…\xi_{0}, \xi_{1}, \ldots be a branching process, where ξ0=1\xi_{0} = 1 and E[ξ1]=m\mathbb {E}\left[\xi_{1}\right] = m. Find E[ξn+k∣ξn]\mathbb {E}\left[\xi_{n+k} \mid \xi_{n}\right].

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Problem 35.2

Find the generating function of the number of particles in the nn-th generation, if the generating function of the offspring of a single particle equals pz+1−ppz + 1 - p.

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Problem 35.3

Find the generating function of the number of particles in the second generation, if the generating function of the offspring of a single particle equals:

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(a)

1−p(1−z)α1 - p(1-z)^{\alpha }, 0<α<10 < \alpha < 1;

(b)

(1−p)/(1−pz)(1-p)/(1-pz).

Problem 35.4

Find the extinction probability of a branching process, if the generating function of the number of offspring of a single particle equals:

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(a)

pz+1−ppz + 1 - p;

(b)

1−p(1−z)α1 - p(1-z)^{\alpha }, 0<α<10 < \alpha < 1;

(c)

(1−p)/(1−pz)(1-p)/(1-pz);

(d)

1−p+pz21 - p + pz^{2};

(e)

(1+z+z2)/3(1+z+z^{2})/3.

Problem 35.5

In problem 35.4(a)--(c), find the distribution of the extinction time of the branching process.

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Problem 35.6

Let ξn\xi_{n} be a branching process with initial population size NN and generating function ϕ(z)=1−p+pz\phi (z) = 1-p+pz. Find the distribution of the extinction time τ\tau of the process.

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Problem 35.7

Let ξ0,ξ1,…\xi_{0}, \xi_{1}, \ldots be a branching process, ξ0=1\xi_{0} = 1. Prove that

P(ξn>N for some 1≤n≤m−1∣ξm=0)≤PN(ξm=0). \mathbb {P}\left(\xi _{n} > N \text{ for some } 1 \leq n \leq m-1 \mid \xi _{m} = 0\right) \leq \mathbb {P}_{N}\left(\xi _{m} = 0\right).
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Problem 35.8

Find the generating function of the total number of particles in the first nn generations, if the generating function of the immediate offspring of a single particle equals pz+1−ppz + 1 - p.

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Problem 35.9

Let a particle have kk direct offspring with probability pk=bck−1p_{k} = bc^{k-1}, k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldots, and p0=1−p1−p2−…p_{0} = 1 - p_{1} - p_{2} - \ldots, where b,c>0b, c > 0 and b+c<1b + c < 1. Find the generating function of the immediate offspring of a single particle.

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Problem 35.10

Consider a branching process ξ0,ξ1,…\xi_{0}, \xi_{1}, \ldots with generating function

ϕ(z)=1−b−c1−c+bz1−cz, \phi (z) = \frac{1-b-c}{1-c} + \frac{bz}{1-cz},

where 0<c<b+c<10 < c < b+c < 1 and 1−b−c>c(1−c)1-b-c > c(1-c). Find

lim⁡n→∞P(ξn=k∣ξn>0). \lim _{n \to \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(\xi _{n} = k \mid \xi _{n} > 0\right).
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Problem 35.11

Let, in the branching process ξ0,ξ1,…\xi_{0}, \xi_{1}, \ldots of problem 35.10, the equality 1−b−c=c(1−c)1-b-c = c(1-c) hold. Find

lim⁡n→∞P(ξn≤nx∣ξn>0). \lim _{n \to \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(\xi _{n} \leq nx \mid \xi _{n} > 0\right).
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