Section 5

Independent Events

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Problem 5.1

Prove that if the events A1,…,AnA_1, \ldots , A_n are mutually independent, then they are also pairwise independent.

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Problem 5.2

Prove that if the events AA and BB are independent, then the following events are also independent:

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(a)

AA and B‾\overline{B};

(b)

A‾\overline{A} and BB;

(c)

A‾\overline{A} and B‾\overline{B}.

Problem 5.3

Prove that if the events AA and BB are disjoint, with P(A)>0\mathbb {P}\left(A\right) > 0 and P(B)>0\mathbb {P}\left(B\right) > 0, then the events AA and BB are dependent.

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Problem 5.4

Suppose the event AA is such that it is independent of itself. Prove that then P(A)=0\mathbb {P}\left(A\right) = 0 or P(A)=1\mathbb {P}\left(A\right) = 1.

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Problem 5.5

Let the events AA and BB be independent. Prove that if A⊆BA \subseteq B, then P(A)=0\mathbb {P}\left(A\right) = 0 or P(B)=1\mathbb {P}\left(B\right) = 1.

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Problem 5.6

Determine what the events AA and BB must be like for the events ABAB and A∪BA \cup B to be independent.

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Problem 5.7

Three coins are tossed in succession. Determine whether the events A={heads appeared on the first coin}A = \left\{ \text{heads appeared on the first coin}\right\} and B={at least one tails appeared}B = \left\{ \text{at least one tails appeared}\right\} are dependent or independent.

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Problem 5.8

A point ξ=(ξ1,ξ2)\xi = (\xi_1, \xi_2) is chosen at random in the square [0,1]2[0,1]^2. For which values of rr are the events A={∣ξ1−ξ2∣⩾r}A = \left\{ \left|\xi_1 - \xi_2\right| \geqslant r\right\} and B={ξ1+ξ2⩽3r}B = \left\{ \xi_1 + \xi_2 \leqslant 3r\right\} independent?

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Problem 5.9

Consider all possible permutations of the four letters aa, bb, cc, and dd. Determine whether the events A={a precedes b}A = \left\{ a \text{ precedes } b\right\} and B={c precedes d}B = \left\{ c \text{ precedes } d\right\} are dependent or independent.

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Problem 5.10

Two dice are rolled. Consider three events: AA --- the first die showed an odd number, BB --- the second die showed an odd number, CC --- the sum of the numbers on the two dice is odd. Check whether the events AA, BB, and CC are independent:

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(a)

mutually;

(b)

pairwise.

Problem 5.11

A point ξ=(ξ1,ξ2)\xi = (\xi_1, \xi_2) is chosen at random in the square [0,1]2[0,1]^2. Define three events by A={ξ1⩽1/2}A = \left\{ \xi_1 \leqslant 1/2\right\}, B={ξ2⩽1/2}B = \left\{ \xi_2 \leqslant 1/2\right\}, and C={(ξ1−1/2)(ξ2−1/2)⩽0}C = \left\{ (\xi_1 - 1/2)(\xi_2 - 1/2) \leqslant 0\right\}. Check whether these events are dependent or independent:

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(a)

mutually;

(b)

pairwise.

Problem 5.12

Three dice are rolled. The event AA consists in the first and second dice showing the same number of points, BB --- the second and third dice showing the same number of points, and CC --- the first and third. Check whether the events AA, BB, and CC are independent:

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(a)

mutually;

(b)

pairwise.

Problem 5.13

A tetrahedron is thrown onto a plane; three of its faces are colored red, blue, and green respectively, while the fourth face carries all three colors. The event KK means that the face landing on the plane contains the color red, the event SS --- that it contains the color blue, and ZZ --- the color green. Check whether the events KK, SS, and ZZ are independent:

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(a)

mutually;

(b)

pairwise.

Problem 5.14

Two fair coins are tossed. Let the event AA consist in heads appearing on the first coin, the event BB in heads appearing on the second coin, and the event CC in heads appearing on exactly one (and only one) of the coins. Check whether the events AA, BB, and CC are independent:

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(a)

mutually;

(b)

pairwise.

Problem 5.15

Let the events A1,…,AnA_1, \ldots , A_n be mutually independent with probabilities P(Ak)=pk\mathbb {P}\left(A_k\right) = p_k. Find the probabilities:

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(a)

of all these events occurring simultaneously;

(b)

of at least one of these events occurring;

(c)

of exactly one (no matter which) event occurring.

Problem 5.16

An electrical circuit consists of elements AkA_k connected according to the following scheme:

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(a)

[Figure omitted -- see source PDF page 38: elements A1A_1 and the series pair A2,A3A_2, A_3 are connected in parallel, and this combination is connected in series with A4A_4]

(b)

[Figure omitted -- see source PDF page 38: elements A1A_1 and A2A_2 are connected in parallel, and this combination is connected in series with A3A_3 and then A4A_4]

The probability that element AkA_k fails is equal to pkp_k; the elements fail independently of one another. What is the probability that the circuit will conduct current?

Problem 5.17

Let Ω=[0,1]\Omega = [0, 1], let F\mathscr {F} be the σ\sigma-algebra of Borel sets, let P\mathbb {P} be Lebesgue measure, and let A=[0,1/2]A = [0, 1/2]. Construct events BB and CC such that P(B)=P(C)=1/2\mathbb {P}\left(B\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(C\right) = 1/2, and the events AA, BB, and CC are mutually independent.

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Problem 5.18

There are 3 pairwise independent events which nevertheless cannot all occur together. Assuming they all have the same probability pp, determine the largest possible value of pp.

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Problem 5.19

Let the events AA, BB, and CC be pairwise independent, with P(C)>0\mathbb {P}\left(C\right) > 0. Is the equality P(A∪B∣C)=P(A∪B)\mathbb {P}\left(A \cup B \mid C\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(A \cup B\right) true?

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Problem 5.20

What is the minimum number of points a finite probability space must have in order for nn mutually independent events A1,…,AnA_1, \ldots , A_n, each with probability different from zero and one, to be definable on that space?

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Problem 5.21

The probability that a molecule, having collided with another molecule at time t0=0t_0 = 0 and having had no further collisions up to time t1t_1, will collide again in the time interval between t1t_1 and t1+Δtt_1 + \Delta t is equal to λΔt+o(Δt)\lambda \Delta t + o(\Delta t) as Δt→0\Delta t \to 0. Find the probability that the free path time (the time between two successive collisions) will exceed tt.

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Problem 5.22

Find the probability that a machine, working at time t0t_0, will not stop before time t1t_1, given that:

  1. this probability depends only on the length of the time interval (t0,t1)(t_0, t_1);

  2. a machine working at time tt will stop during the time interval (t,t+Δ)(t, t + \Delta ) with probability αΔ+o(Δ)\alpha \Delta + o(\Delta ) as Δ→0\Delta \to 0, where α>0\alpha > 0.

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Problem 5.23

In constructing mortality tables, one often starts from the following assumptions:

  1. a person who has survived to age tt will die within the time from tt to t+Δt + \Delta with probability p(t,Δ)=α(t)Δ+o(Δ)p(t, \Delta ) = \alpha (t)\Delta + o(\Delta ) as Δ→0\Delta \to 0, where α(t)>0\alpha (t) > 0;

  2. the probability of death at the moment of birth is zero. Under these assumptions, find the probability of death before age tt.

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