Chapter 7

An Outlook on Further Topics

[14/29%]
Show
LaTeX
Problem 7.1

Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \ldots be independent, equidistributed random variables, and set Sn=X1+⋯+XnS_n = X_1 + \cdots + X_n, n≥1n \geq 1. The sequence {Sn,n≥0}\left\{ S_n, n \geq 0\right\} (where S0=0S_0 = 0) is called a random walk. Consider the following ``perturbed'' random walk. Let {εn,n≥1}\left\{ \varepsilon_n, n \geq 1\right\} be a sequence of random variables such that, for some fixed A>0A > 0, we have P(∣εn∣≤A)=1\mathbb {P}\left(\left|\varepsilon_n\right| \leq A\right) = 1 for all nn, and set

Tn=Sn+εn,n=1,2,…. T_n = S_n + \varepsilon _n, \quad n = 1, 2, \ldots .

Suppose that E[X1]=μ\mathbb {E}\left[X_1\right] = \mu exists. Show that the law of large numbers holds for the perturbed random walk {Tn,n≥1}\left\{ T_n, n \geq 1\right\}.

?
Problem 7.2

In a game of dice one wishes to use one of two dice AA and BB. AA has two white and four red faces and BB has two red and four white faces. A coin is tossed in order to decide which die is to be used and that die is then used throughout. Let {Xk,k≥1}\left\{ X_k, k \geq 1\right\} be a sequence of random variables defined as follows:

Xk={1,if red is obtained,0,if white is obtained X_k = \begin{cases} 1, & \text{if red is obtained,} \\ 0, & \text{if white is obtained} \end{cases}

at the kkth roll of the die. Show that the law of large numbers does not hold for the sequence {Xk,k≥1}\left\{ X_k, k \geq 1\right\}. Why is this the case?

?
Problem 7.3

Suppose that X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \ldots are independent random variables such that Xk∈Ber⁡(pk)X_k \in \operatorname {Ber}\left(p_k\right), k≥1k \geq 1, and set Sn=∑k=1nXkS_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} X_k, mn=∑k=1npkm_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} p_k, and sn2=∑k=1npk(1−pk)s_n^2 = \sum_{k=1}^{n} p_k(1-p_k), n≥1n \geq 1. Show that if

∑k=1∞pk(1−pk)=+∞, \sum _{k=1}^{\infty } p_k(1-p_k) = +\infty ,

then

Sn−mnsn→dN(0,1)asn→∞. \frac{S_n - m_n}{s_n} \xrightarrow {d} N(0,1) \quad \text{as} \quad n \to \infty .
?
Remark.
?

Remark 1. The case pk=1/kp_k = 1/k, k≥1k \geq 1, corresponds to the record times, and we rediscover Theorem 6.4: if X,X1,X2,…X, X_1, X_2, \ldots are i.i.d.continuous random variables and μ(n)\mu (n) denotes the number of records among X1,X2,…,XnX_1, X_2, \ldots , X_n, then

μ(n)−log⁡nlog⁡n→dN(0,1)asn→∞. \frac{\mu (n) - \log n}{\sqrt{\log n}} \xrightarrow {d} N(0,1) \quad \text{as} \quad n \to \infty .

Remark 2. One can show that the assumption ∑k=1∞pk(1−pk)=+∞\sum_{k=1}^{\infty } p_k(1-p_k) = +\infty is necessary for the conclusion to hold.

Problem 7.4

Prove the following central limit theorem for a sum of independent (not identically distributed) random variables: Suppose that X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \ldots are independent random variables such that Xk∈U(−k,k)X_k \in U(-k,k), and set Sn=∑k=1nXkS_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} X_k, n≥1n \geq 1. Show that

Snn3/2→dN(μ,σ2)asn→∞, \frac{S_n}{n^{3/2}} \xrightarrow {d} N(\mu , \sigma ^2) \quad \text{as} \quad n \to \infty ,

and determine μ\mu and σ2\sigma^2.

?
Remark.
?

Remark. Note that the normalization is not proportional to n\sqrt{n}; rather, it is asymptotically proportional to Var⁡[Sn]\sqrt{\operatorname {Var}\left[S_n\right]}.

Problem 7.5

Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \ldots be independent, U(0,1)U(0,1)-distributed random variables. We say that there is a peak at XkX_k if Xk−1X_{k-1} and Xk+1X_{k+1} are both smaller than XkX_k, k≥2k \geq 2. What is the probability of a peak at

?
(a)

X2X_2?

(b)

X3X_3?

(c)

X2X_2 and X3X_3?

(d)

X2X_2 and X4X_4?

(e)

X2X_2 and X5X_5?

(f)

XiX_i and XjX_j, i,j≥2i, j \geq 2?

Remark.
?

Remark. Letting Ik=1I_k = 1 if there is a peak at XkX_k and 00 otherwise, the sequence {Ik,k≥1}\left\{ I_k, k \geq 1\right\} forms a 2-dependent sequence of random variables.

Problem 7.6

Verify formula (2.1), i.e., that if X,X1,X2,…X, X_1, X_2, \ldots are i.i.d.symmetric stable random variables, then

Snn1/α=dXfor alln. \frac{S_n}{n^{1/\alpha }} \stackrel{d}{=} X \quad \text{for all} \quad n.
?
Problem 7.7

Prove that the law of large numbers holds for symmetric, stable distributions with index α\alpha, 1<α≤21 < \alpha \leq 2.

?
Problem 7.8

Let 0<α<20 < \alpha < 2 and suppose that X,X1,X2,…X, X_1, X_2, \ldots are independent random variables with common (two-sided Pareto) density

f(x)={α2∣x∣α+1,for∣x∣>1,0,otherwise. f(x) = \begin{cases} \dfrac {\alpha }{2\left|x\right|^{\alpha +1}}, & \text{for} \quad \left|x\right| > 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise.} \end{cases}

Show that the distribution belongs to the domain of attraction of a symmetric stable distribution with index α\alpha; in other words, that the sums Sn=∑k=1nXkS_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} X_k, suitably normalized, converge in distribution to a symmetric stable distribution with index α\alpha.

?
Remark.
?

Remark 1. More precisely, one can show that Sn/n1/αS_n/n^{1/\alpha } converges in distribution to a symmetric stable law with index α\alpha.

Remark 2. This problem generalizes Examples 3.1 and 3.2.

Problem 7.9

The same problem as the previous one, but for the density

f(x)={clog⁡∣x∣∣x∣α+1,for∣x∣>1,0,otherwise, f(x) = \begin{cases} \dfrac {c \log \left|x\right|}{\left|x\right|^{\alpha +1}}, & \text{for} \quad \left|x\right| > 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise,} \end{cases}

where cc is an appropriate normalizing constant.

?
Remark.
?

Remark. In this case one can show that Sn/(nlog⁡n)1/αS_n/(n \log n)^{1/\alpha } converges in distribution to a symmetric stable law with index α\alpha.

Problem 7.10

Show that the extremal distributions belong to their own domain of attraction. More precisely, let X,X1,X2,…X, X_1, X_2, \ldots be i.i.d.random variables, and set

Yn=max⁡{X1,X2,…,Xn},n≥1. Y_n = \max \left\{ X_1, X_2, \ldots , X_n\right\} , \quad n \geq 1.

Show that,

?
(a)

if XX has a Frechet distribution, then

Ynn1/α=dX; \frac{Y_n}{n^{1/\alpha }} \stackrel{d}{=} X;
(b)

if XX has a Weibull distribution, then

n1/αYn=dX; n^{1/\alpha } Y_n \stackrel{d}{=} X;
(c)

if XX has a Gumbel distribution, then

Yn−log⁡n=dX. Y_n - \log n \stackrel{d}{=} X.
Problem 7.11

Let Y1,Y2,…Y_1, Y_2, \ldots be independent random variables with mean zero and finite variances Var⁡[Yk]=σk2\operatorname {Var}\left[Y_k\right] = \sigma_k^2. Set

Xn=(∑k=1nYk)2−∑k=1nσk2,n≥1. X_n = \left(\sum _{k=1}^{n} Y_k\right)^2 - \sum _{k=1}^{n} \sigma _k^2, \quad n \geq 1.

Show that X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \ldots is a martingale.

?
Problem 7.12

Let Y1,Y2,…Y_1, Y_2, \ldots be i.i.d.random variables with finite mean μ\mu, and finite variance σ2\sigma^2, and let SnS_n, n≥1n \geq 1, denote their partial sums. Set

Xn=(Sn−nμ)2−nσ2,n≥1. X_n = (S_n - n\mu )^2 - n\sigma ^2, \quad n \geq 1.

Show that X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \ldots is a martingale.

?
Problem 7.13

Let X(n)X(n) be the number of individuals in the nnth generation of a branching process (X(0)=1X(0) = 1) with reproduction mean mm (=E[X(1)]= \mathbb {E}\left[X(1)\right]). Set

Un=X(n)mn,n≥1. U_n = \frac{X(n)}{m^n}, \quad n \geq 1.

Show that U1,U2,…U_1, U_2, \ldots is a martingale.

?
Problem 7.14

Let Y1,Y2,…Y_1, Y_2, \ldots are i.i.d.random variables with a finite moment generating function ψ\psi, set Sn=∑k=1nYkS_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} Y_k, n≥1n \geq 1, with S0=0S_0 = 0, and

Xn=etSn(ψ(t))n,n≥1. X_n = \frac{e^{t S_n}}{(\psi (t))^n}, \quad n \geq 1.
?
(a)

Show that {Xn,n≥1}\left\{ X_n, n \geq 1\right\} is a martingale (which is frequently called the exponential martingale).

(b)

Find the relevant martingale if the common distribution is the standard normal one.