Chapter 2

Conditioning

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Problem 2.1

Let XX and YY be independent Exp(1)\text{Exp}(1)-distributed random variables. Find the conditional distribution of XX given that X+Y=cX+Y=c (cc is a positive constant).

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Problem 2.2

Let XX and YY be independent Γ(2,a)\Gamma (2,a)-distributed random variables. Find the conditional distribution of XX given that X+Y=2X+Y=2.

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Problem 2.3

The life of a repairing device is Exp(1/a)\text{Exp}(1/a)-distributed. Peter wishes to use it on nn different, independent, Exp(1/na)\text{Exp}(1/na)-distributed occasions.

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(a)

Compute the probability PnP_n that this is possible.

(b)

Determine the limit of PnP_n as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty.

Problem 2.4

The life TT (hours) of the lightbulb in an overhead projector follows an Exp(10)\text{Exp}(10)-distribution. During a normal week it is used a Po(12)\text{Po}(12)-distributed number of lectures lasting exactly one hour each. Find the probability that a projector with a newly installed lightbulb functions throughout a normal week (without replacing the lightbulb).

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Problem 2.5

The random variables N,X1,X2,…N, X_1, X_2, \ldots are independent, N∈Po(λ)N \in \text{Po}(\lambda ), and Xk∈Be(1/2)X_k \in \text{Be}(1/2), k≥1k \geq 1. Set

Y1=∑k=1NXkandY2=N−Y1 Y_1 = \sum _{k=1}^{N} X_k \quad \text{and} \quad Y_2 = N - Y_1

(Y1=0Y_1 = 0 for N=0N=0). Show that Y1Y_1 and Y2Y_2 are independent, and determine their distributions.

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Problem 2.6

Suppose that X∈N(0,1)X \in N(0,1) and Y∈Exp(1)Y \in \text{Exp}(1) are independent random variables. Prove that X2YX\sqrt{2Y} has a standard Laplace distribution.

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Problem 2.7

Let N∈Ge(p)N \in \text{Ge}(p) and set X=(−1)NX = (-1)^N. Compute

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(a)

E[X]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right] and Var⁡[X]\operatorname {Var}\left[X\right],

(b)

the distribution (probability function) of XX.

Problem 2.8

The density function of the two-dimensional random variable (X,Y)(X,Y) is

fX,Y(x,y)={x22⋅y3⋅e−xy,for0<x<∞,0<y<1,0,otherwise. f_{X,Y}(x,y) = \begin{cases} \dfrac {x^2}{2 \cdot y^3} \cdot e^{-\frac{x}{y}}, & \text{for} \quad 0 < x < \infty , \quad 0 < y < 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}
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(a)

Determine the distribution of YY.

(b)

Find the conditional distribution of XX given that Y=yY=y.

(c)

Use the results from (a) and (b) to compute E[X]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right] and Var⁡[X]\operatorname {Var}\left[X\right].

Problem 2.9

The density of the random vector (X,Y)′(X,Y)' is

fX,Y(x,y)={cx,forx≥0,y≥0,x+y≤1,0,otherwise. f_{X,Y}(x,y) = \begin{cases} cx, & \text{for} \quad x \geq 0, \quad y \geq 0, \quad x+y \leq 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute

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(a)

cc,

(b)

the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

Problem 2.10

Suppose XX and YY have a joint density function given by

f(x,y)={cx2,for0<x<y<1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} cx^2, & \text{for} \quad 0 < x < y < 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Find cc, the marginal density functions, E[X]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right], E[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right], and the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.11

Suppose XX and YY have a joint density function given by

f(x,y)={c⋅x2y,for0<y<x<1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} c \cdot x^2 y, & \text{for} \quad 0 < y < x < 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute cc, the marginal densities, E[X]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right], E[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right], and the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.12

Let XX and YY have joint density

f(x,y)={cxy,when0<y<x<1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} cxy, & \text{when} \quad 0 < y < x < 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.13

Let XX and YY have joint density

f(x,y)={cy,when0<y<x<2,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} cy, & \text{when} \quad 0 < y < x < 2, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.14

Suppose that XX and YY are random variables with joint density

f(x,y)={c(x+2y),when0<x<y<1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} c(x+2y), & \text{when} \quad 0 < x < y < 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the regression functions E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.15

Suppose that XX and YY are random variables with a joint density

f(x,y)={25(2x+3y),when0<x,y<1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} \dfrac {2}{5}(2x+3y), & \text{when} \quad 0 < x,y < 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.16

Let XX and YY be random variables with a joint density

f(x,y)={45(x+3y)e−x−2y,whenx,y>0,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} \dfrac {4}{5}(x+3y)e^{-x-2y}, & \text{when} \quad x,y > 0, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the regression functions E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.17

Suppose that the joint density of XX and YY is given by

f(x,y)={xe−x−xy,whenx>0,y>0,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} xe^{-x-xy}, & \text{when} \quad x > 0, \quad y > 0, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Determine the regression functions E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.18

Let the joint density function of XX and YY be given by

f(x,y)={c(x+y),for0<x<y<1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} c(x+y), & \text{for} \quad 0 < x < y < 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Determine cc, the marginal densities, E[X]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right], E[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right], and the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.19

Let the joint density of XX and YY be given by

fX,Y(x,y)={c,for0≤x≤1,x2≤y≤x,0,otherwise. f_{X,Y}(x,y) = \begin{cases} c, & \text{for} \quad 0 \leq x \leq 1, \quad x^2 \leq y \leq x, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute cc, the marginal densities, and the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.20

Suppose that XX and YY are random variables with joint density

f(x,y)={cx,when0<x<1,x3<y<x1/3,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} cx, & \text{when} \quad 0 < x < 1, \quad x^3 < y < x^{1/3}, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.21

Suppose that XX and YY are random variables with joint density

f(x,y)={cy,when0<x<1,x4<y<x1/4,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} cy, & \text{when} \quad 0 < x < 1, \quad x^4 < y < x^{1/4}, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.22

Let the joint density function of XX and YY be given by

f(x,y)={c⋅x3y,forx,y>0,x2+y2≤1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} c \cdot x^3 y, & \text{for} \quad x,y > 0, \quad x^2+y^2 \leq 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute cc, the marginal densities, and the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.23

The joint density function of XX and YY is given by

f(x,y)={c⋅xy,forx,y>0,4x2+y2≤1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} c \cdot xy, & \text{for} \quad x,y > 0, \quad 4x^2+y^2 \leq 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute cc, the marginal densities, and the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.24

Let XX and YY have joint density

f(x,y)={cx3y,when1<y<x,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} \dfrac {c}{x^3 y}, & \text{when} \quad 1 < y < x, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.25

Let XX and YY have joint density

f(x,y)={cx4y,when1<y<x,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} \dfrac {c}{x^4 y}, & \text{when} \quad 1 < y < x, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.26

Suppose that XX and YY are random variables with a joint density

f(x,y)={c(1+x−y)2,when0<y<x<1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} \dfrac {c}{(1+x-y)^2}, & \text{when} \quad 0 < y < x < 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.27

Suppose that XX and YY are random variables with a joint density

f(x,y)={c⋅cos⁡x,when0<y<x<π2,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} c \cdot \cos x, & \text{when} \quad 0 < y < x < \frac{\pi }{2}, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.28

Let XX and YY have joint density

f(x,y)={clog⁡y,when0<y<x<1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} c\log y, & \text{when} \quad 0 < y < x < 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Compute the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Problem 2.29

The random vector (X,Y)′(X,Y)' has the following joint distribution:

P(X=m,Y=n)=(mn)12mm15, \mathbb {P}\left(X=m, Y=n\right) = \binom {m}{n}\frac{1}{2^m}\frac{m}{15},

where m=1,2,…,5m=1,2,\ldots ,5 and n=0,1,…,mn=0,1,\ldots ,m. Compute E[Y∣X=m]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=m \right].

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Problem 2.30

Show that a suitable power of a Weibull-distributed random variable whose parameter is gamma-distributed is Pareto-distributed. More precisely, show that if

X∣A=a∈W(1a,1b)withA∈Γ(p,θ), X \mid A=a \in W\left(\frac{1}{a}, \frac{1}{b}\right) \quad \text{with} \quad A \in \Gamma (p,\theta ),

then XbX^b has a (translated) Pareto distribution.

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Problem 2.31

Show that an exponential random variable such that the inverse of the parameter is gamma-distributed is Pareto-distributed. More precisely, show that if

X∣M=m∈Exp(m)withM−1∈Γ(p,a), X \mid M=m \in \text{Exp}(m) \quad \text{with} \quad M^{-1} \in \Gamma (p,a),

then XX has a (translated) Pareto distribution.

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Problem 2.32

Let XX and YY be random variables such that

Y∣X=x∈Exp(1/x)withX∈Γ(2,1). Y \mid X=x \in \text{Exp}(1/x) \quad \text{with} \quad X \in \Gamma (2,1).
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(a)

Show that YY has a translated Pareto distribution.

(b)

Compute E[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right].

(c)

Check the value in (b) by recomputing it via our favorite formula for conditional means.

Problem 2.33

Suppose that the random variable XX is uniformly distributed symmetrically around zero, but in such a way that the parameter is uniform on (0,1)(0,1); that is, suppose that

X∣A=a∈U(−a,a)withA∈U(0,1). X \mid A=a \in U(-a,a) \quad \text{with} \quad A \in U(0,1).

Find the distribution of XX, E[X]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right], and Var⁡[X]\operatorname {Var}\left[X\right].

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Problem 2.34

In Section 4 we studied the situation when a coin, such that p=P(head)p = \mathbb {P}\left(\text{head}\right) is considered to be a U(0,1)U(0,1)-distributed random variable, is tossed, and found that if Xn=#X_n = \# heads after nn tosses, then XnX_n is uniformly distributed over the integers 0,1,…,n0,1,\ldots ,n.

Suppose instead that pp is considered to be β(2,2)\beta (2,2)-distributed. What then? More precisely, consider the following model:

Xn∣Y=y∈Bin(n,y)withfY(y)=6y(1−y),0<y<1. X_n \mid Y=y \in \text{Bin}(n,y) \quad \text{with} \quad f_Y(y) = 6y(1-y), \quad 0 < y < 1.
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(a)

Compute E[Xn]\mathbb {E}\left[X_n\right] and Var⁡[Xn]\operatorname {Var}\left[X_n\right].

(b)

Determine the distribution of XnX_n.

Problem 2.35

Let XX and YY be jointly distributed random variables such that

Y∣X=x∈Bin(n,x)withX∈U(0,1). Y \mid X=x \in \text{Bin}(n,x) \quad \text{with} \quad X \in U(0,1).

Compute E[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right], Var⁡[Y]\operatorname {Var}\left[Y\right], and Cov⁡[X,Y]\operatorname {Cov}\left[ X, Y \right] (without using what is known from Section 4 about the distribution of YY).

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Problem 2.36

Let XX and YY be jointly distributed random variables such that

Y∣X=x∈Fs(x)withfX(x)=3x2,0≤x≤1. Y \mid X=x \in \text{Fs}(x) \quad \text{with} \quad f_X(x) = 3x^2, \quad 0 \leq x \leq 1.

Compute E[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right], Var⁡[Y]\operatorname {Var}\left[Y\right], Cov⁡[X,Y]\operatorname {Cov}\left[ X, Y \right], and the distribution of YY.

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Problem 2.37

Let XX be the number of coin tosses until heads is obtained. Suppose that the probability of heads is unknown in the sense that we consider it to be a random variable Y∈U(0,1)Y \in U(0,1).

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(a)

Find the distribution of XX (cf. problem 3.8.48).

(b)

The expected value of an Fs\text{Fs}-distributed random variable exists, as is well known. What about E[X]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right]?

(c)

Suppose that the value X=nX=n has been observed. Find the posterior distribution of YY, that is, the distribution of Y∣X=nY \mid X=n.

Problem 2.38

Let pp be the probability that the tip points downward after a person throws a drawing pin once. Annika throws a drawing pin until it points downward for the first time. Let XX be the number of throws for this to happen. She then throws the drawing pin another XX times. Let YY be the number of times the drawing pin points downward in the latter series of throws. Find the distribution of YY (cf. problem 3.8.31).

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Problem 2.39

A point PP is chosen uniformly in an nn-dimensional sphere of radius 11. Next, a point QQ is chosen uniformly within the concentric sphere, centered at the origin, going through PP. Let XX and YY be the distances of PP and QQ, respectively, to the common center. Find the joint density function of XX and YY and the conditional expectations E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] and E[X∣Y=y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid Y=y \right].

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Remark.
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Hint 1. Begin by trying the case n=2n=2.

Hint 2. The volume of an nn-dimensional sphere of radius rr is equal to cnrnc_n r^n, where cnc_n is some constant (which is of no interest for the problem).

Remark. For n=1n=1 we rediscover the stick from Example 2.1.

Problem 2.40

Theorem 2.2(b): if XX and YY are independent random variables, then E[Y∣X]=E[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X \right] = \mathbb {E}\left[Y\right]. Remark 2.4 explains that this holds because the conditional distribution and the unconditional distribution of YY coincide when XX and YY are independent, and hence so do the conditional and unconditional expectations.

Let XX and YY be independent random variables. The conditional distribution of YY given that X=xX=x then does not depend on xx. Moreover, E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] is independent of xx; recall Theorem 2.2(b) and Remark 2.4.

Now, suppose instead that E[Y∣X=x]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X=x \right] is independent of xx (i.e., that E[Y∣X]=E[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[ Y \mid X \right] = \mathbb {E}\left[Y\right]). We say that YY has constant regression with respect to XX. However, it does not necessarily follow that XX and YY are independent. Namely, let the joint density of XX and YY be given by

f(x,y)={12,for∣x∣+∣y∣≤1,0,otherwise. f(x,y) = \begin{cases} \dfrac {1}{2}, & \text{for} \quad \left|x\right|+\left|y\right| \leq 1, \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

Show that YY has constant regression with respect to XX and/but that XX and YY are not independent.

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