Section 5.4

Branching processes

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Problem 5.4.1

Let ZnZ_{n} be the size of the nnth generation in an ordinary branching process with Z0=1,E[Z1]=μZ_{0} = 1, \mathbb {E}\left[Z_{1}\right] = \mu, and Var⁡[Z1]>0\operatorname {Var}\left[Z_{1}\right] > 0. Show that E[ZnZm]=μn−mE[Zm2]\mathbb {E}\left[Z_{n} Z_{m}\right] = \mu^{n-m} \mathbb {E}\left[Z_{m}^{2}\right] for m≤nm \leq n. Hence find the correlation coefficient ρ(Zm,Zn)\rho \left(Z_{m}, Z_{n}\right) in terms of μ\mu.

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Problem 5.4.2

Consider a branching process with generation sizes ZnZ_{n} satisfying Z0=1Z_{0} = 1 and P(Z1=0)=0\mathbb {P}\left(Z_{1} = 0\right) = 0. Pick two individuals at random (with replacement) from the nnth generation and let LL be the index of the generation which contains their most recent common ancestor. Show that P(L≥r)≥E[Zr−1]\mathbb {P}\left(L \geq r\right) \geq \mathbb {E}\left[Z_{r}^{-1}\right] for 0≤r<n0 \leq r < n. Show when r≠0r \neq 0 that equality holds if and only if Z1Z_{1} is a.s. constant. What can be said if P(Z1=0)>0\mathbb {P}\left(Z_{1} = 0\right) > 0?

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Problem 5.4.3

Consider a branching process whose family sizes have the geometric mass function f(k)=qpkf(k) = q p^{k}, k≥0k \geq 0, where p+q=1p+q = 1, and let ZnZ_{n} be the size of the nnth generation. Let T=min⁡{n:Zn=0}T = \min \left\{ n: Z_{n} = 0\right\} be the extinction time, and suppose that Z0=1Z_{0} = 1. Find P(T=n)\mathbb {P}\left(T = n\right). For what values of pp is it the case that E[T]<∞\mathbb {E}\left[T\right] < \infty?

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Problem 5.4.4

Let ZnZ_{n} be the size of the nnth generation of a branching process, and assume Z0=1Z_{0} = 1. Find an expression for the generating function GnG_{n} of ZnZ_{n}, in the cases when Z1Z_{1} has generating function:

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(a)

G(s)=1−α(1−s)β,0<α,β<1G(s) = 1-\alpha (1-s)^{\beta }, 0 < \alpha , \beta < 1.

(b)

G(s)=f−1{P(f(s))}G(s) = f^{-1}\left\{ P(f(s))\right\}, where PP is a probability generating function, and ff is a suitable function satisfying f(1)=1f(1) = 1.

(c)

Suppose in the latter case that f(x)=xmf(x) = x^{m} and P(s)=s{γ−(γ−1)s}−1P(s) = s\left\{ \gamma -(\gamma -1) s\right\}^{-1} where γ>1\gamma > 1. Calculate the answer explicitly.

Problem 5.4.5

Each generation of a branching process (with a single progenitor) is augmented by a random number of immigrants who are indistinguishable from the other members of the population. Suppose that the numbers of immigrants in different generations are independent of each other and of the past history of the branching process, each such number having probability generating function H(s)H(s). Show that the probability generating function GnG_{n} of the size of the nnth generation satisfies Gn+1(s)=Gn(G(s))H(s)G_{n+1}(s) = G_{n}(G(s)) H(s), where GG is the probability generating function of a typical family of offspring.

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Problem 5.4.6

Let ZnZ_{n} be the size of the nnth generation in a branching process with E[sZ1]=(2−s)−1\mathbb {E}\left[s^{Z_{1}}\right] = (2-s)^{-1} and Z0=1Z_{0} = 1. Let VrV_{r} be the total number of generations of size rr. Show that E[V1]=16π2\mathbb {E}\left[V_{1}\right] = \frac{1}{6} \pi^{2}, and E[2V2−V3]=16π2−190π4\mathbb {E}\left[2 V_{2}-V_{3}\right] = \frac{1}{6} \pi^{2}-\frac{1}{90} \pi^{4}.

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Problem 5.4.7

Let TT be the total number of individuals in a branching process with family-size distribution bin⁡(2,p)\operatorname {bin}(2, p), where p≠12p \neq \frac{1}{2}. Show that

E[T∣T<∞]=1∣2p−1∣ \mathbb {E}\left[T \mid T < \infty \right] = \frac{1}{\left|2 p-1\right|}

What is the family-size distribution conditional on T<∞T < \infty?

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Problem 5.4.8

Let ZZ be a branching process with Z0=1,E[Z1]=μ>1Z_{0} = 1, \mathbb {E}\left[Z_{1}\right] = \mu > 1, and Var⁡[Z1]=σ2\operatorname {Var}\left[Z_{1}\right] = \sigma^{2}. Use the Paley-Zygmund inequality to show that the extinction probability ηn=P(Zn=0)\eta_{n} = \mathbb {P}\left(Z_{n} = 0\right) satisfies

ηn≤σ2μ(μ−1)(1−μ−n) \eta _{n} \leq \frac{\sigma ^{2}}{\mu (\mu -1)}\left(1-\mu ^{-n}\right)
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