Section 5.11

Large deviations

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Problem 5.11.1

A fair coin is tossed nn times, showing heads HnH_{n} times and tails TnT_{n} times. Let Sn=Hn−TnS_{n} = H_{n}-T_{n}. Show that

P(Sn>an)1/n→1(1+a)1+a(1−a)1−a if 0<a<1 \mathbb {P}\left(S_{n} > a n\right)^{1 / n} \rightarrow \frac{1}{\sqrt{(1+a)^{1+a}(1-a)^{1-a}}} \quad \text{ if } 0 < a < 1

What happens if a≥1a \geq 1?

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Problem 5.11.2

Show that

Tn1/n→4(1+a)1+a(1−a)1−a T_{n}^{1 / n} \rightarrow \frac{4}{\sqrt{(1+a)^{1+a}(1-a)^{1-a}}}

as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty, where 0<a<10 < a < 1 and

Tn=∑k:∣k−12n∣>12an(nk) T_{n} = \sum _{\substack {k: \\ \left|k-\frac{1}{2} n\right| > \frac{1}{2} a n}}\binom {n}{k}

Find the asymptotic behaviour of Tn1/nT_{n}^{1 / n} where

Tn=∑k⋅k>n(1+a)nkk!, where a>0 T_{n} = \sum _{\substack {k \cdot \\ k > n(1+a)}} \frac{n^{k}}{k!}, \quad \text{ where } a > 0
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Problem 5.11.3

Show that the moment generating function of XX is finite in a neighbourhood of the origin if and only if XX has exponentially decaying tails, in the sense that there exist positive constants λ\lambda and μ\mu such that P(∣X∣≥a)≤μe−λa\mathbb {P}\left(\left|X\right| \geq a\right) \leq \mu e^{-\lambda a} for a>0a > 0. [Seen in the light of this observation, the condition of the large deviation theorem (5.11.4) is very natural].

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Problem 5.11.4

Let X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots be independent random variables having the Cauchy distribution, and let Sn=X1+X2+⋯+XnS_{n} = X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots +X_{n}. Find P(Sn>an)\mathbb {P}\left(S_{n} > a n\right).

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Problem 5.11.5

Chernoff inequality for Bernoulli trials. Let S=∑r=1nXrS = \sum_{r = 1}^{n} X_{r} be a sum of independent Bernoulli random variables XrX_{r} taking values in {0,1}\left\{ 0,1\right\}, where E[Xr]=pr\mathbb {E}\left[X_{r}\right] = p_{r} and E[S]=μ>0\mathbb {E}\left[S\right] = \mu > 0. Show that

P(S>(1+ϵ)μ)≤exp⁡{−μ[(1+ϵ)log⁡(1+ϵ)−ϵ]},ϵ>0 \mathbb {P}\left(S > (1+\epsilon ) \mu \right) \leq \exp \left\{ -\mu [(1+\epsilon ) \log (1+\epsilon )-\epsilon ]\right\} , \quad \epsilon > 0
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