Chapter 6

Countably Additive Probability

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Problem 6.1

Show that if PP is countably additive, then it is also finitely additive; that is, P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)\mathbb {P}\left(A \cup B\right)=\mathbb {P}\left(A\right)+\mathbb {P}\left(B\right) for any A,B∈FA, B \in \mathcal{F} such that A∩B=∅A \cap B =\varnothing.

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Problem 6.2

Let F\mathcal{F} be a finite field. Show that if PP is a finitely additive probability measure on F\mathcal{F}, then it is also countably additive.

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Problem 6.3

Let Ω=N\Omega =\mathbb {N} and let F\mathcal{F} be the family of all subsets of Ω\Omega. Can P({i})=1i,i=1,2,…\mathbb {P}\left(\{ i\} \right)= \frac{1}{i}, i=1,2, \ldots, be extended to a probability measure on F\mathcal{F}?

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Problem 6.4

Let Ω=N\Omega =\mathbb {N}, and let F\mathcal{F} be the family of all subsets of Ω\Omega. Put P({i})=αi,i=1,2,…\mathbb {P}\left(\{ i\} \right)= \alpha_{i}, i=1,2, \ldots. Extend PP to a probability measure defined on F\mathcal{F}. What conditions have to be imposed on the numbers αi\alpha_{i}? Can they all be chosen the same?

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Problem 6.5

Let Ω=N\Omega =\mathbb {N} and let F\mathcal{F} be the family of all subsets of Ω\Omega. Can P({i})=2−i,i=1,2,…\mathbb {P}\left(\{ i\} \right)= 2^{-i}, i=1,2, \ldots, be extended to a probability measure on F\mathcal{F}?

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Problem 6.6

Let Ω=N\Omega =\mathbb {N} and let F\mathcal{F} be the family of all subsets of Ω\Omega. Can you find a value of cc such that P({i})=ci!,i=1,2,…\mathbb {P}\left(\{ i\} \right)=\frac{c}{i!}, i=1,2, \ldots, can be extended to a probability measure on F\mathcal{F}?

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Problem 6.7

Let Ω=N\Omega =\mathbb {N} and let F\mathcal{F} be the family of all subsets of Ω\Omega. Is

P(A)=lim inf⁡n→∞#(A∩{1,…,n})n \mathbb {P}\left(A\right)=\liminf _{n \rightarrow \infty } \frac{\# (A \cap \{ 1, \ldots , n\} )}{n}

a probability measure on F\mathcal{F}?

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Problem 6.8

Show that if A1⊂A2⊂A3⊂⋯A_{1} \subset A_{2} \subset A_{3} \subset \cdots (this is called an expanding or increasing sequence of sets), then

P(⋃k=1∞Ak)=lim⁡k→∞P(Ak) \mathbb {P}\left(\bigcup _{k=1}^{\infty } A_{k}\right)=\lim _{k \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(A_{k}\right)
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Problem 6.9

Show that if A1⊃A2⊃A3⊃⋯A_{1} \supset A_{2} \supset A_{3} \supset \cdots (this is called a contracting or decreasing sequence of sets), then

P(⋂k=1∞Ak)=lim⁡k→∞P(Ak) \mathbb {P}\left(\bigcap _{k=1}^{\infty } A_{k}\right)=\lim _{k \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(A_{k}\right)
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Problem 6.10
P(⋃n=1∞An)⩽∑i=1∞P(An) \mathbb {P}\left(\bigcup _{n=1}^{\infty } A_{n}\right) \leqslant \sum _{i=1}^{\infty } \mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right)
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Problem 6.11

If P(An)=0\mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right)=0 for n=1,2,…n=1,2, \ldots, then P(⋃n=1∞An)=0\mathbb {P}\left(\bigcup_{n=1}^{\infty } A_{n}\right)=0.

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Problem 6.12

If P(An)=1\mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right)=1 for n=1,2,…n=1,2, \ldots, then P(⋂n=1∞An)=1\mathbb {P}\left(\bigcap_{n=1}^{\infty } A_{n}\right)=1.

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Problem 6.13

If P(An△A)→0\mathbb {P}\left(A_{n} \triangle A\right) \rightarrow 0 as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty, then P(An)→P(A)\mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right) \rightarrow \mathbb {P}\left(A\right) as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty.

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Problem 6.14

Prove Theorem 6.1. (It is called the first Borel-Cantelli lemma.)

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Problem 6.15

Verify that

P(lim inf⁡n→∞An)⩽lim inf⁡n→∞P(An)⩽lim sup⁡n→∞P(An)⩽P(lim sup⁡n→∞An) \mathbb {P}\left(\liminf _{n \rightarrow \infty } A_{n}\right) \leqslant \liminf _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right) \leqslant \limsup _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right) \leqslant \mathbb {P}\left(\limsup _{n \rightarrow \infty } A_{n}\right)
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Problem 6.16

Find m([12,23)),m((15,13]),m({1}),m({1n:n=1,2,…})m\left(\left[\frac{1}{2}, \frac{2}{3}\right)\right), m\left(\left(\frac{1}{5}, \frac{1}{3}\right]\right), m(\{ 1\} ), m\left(\left\{ \frac{1}{n}: n=1,2, \ldots \right\} \right), and m(N)m(\mathbb {N}).

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Problem 6.17

Find m([14,12]),m({0,12,1})m\left(\left[\frac{1}{4}, \frac{1}{2}\right]\right), m\left(\left\{ 0, \frac{1}{2}, 1\right\} \right), and m(Q∩[0,1])m(\mathbb {Q} \cap [0,1]) (Q\mathbb {Q} denotes the set of all rational numbers).

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Problem 6.18

Find m({x:∣x−n∣<12n for some n∈N})m\left(\left\{ x:\left|x-n\right|<\frac{1}{2^{n}} \text{ for some } n \in \mathbb {N}\right\} \right).

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Problem 6.19

Find m(⋃n=1∞(12n+1,12n])m\left(\bigcup_{n=1}^{\infty }\left(\frac{1}{2^{n+1}}, \frac{1}{2^{n}}\right]\right).

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Problem 6.20

Find m(C)m(C), where CC is the Cantor set (see Problem 5.23 for the definition of the Cantor set).

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Problem 6.21

f(x)=c  1[1,3](x)f(x)=c \; \mathbb {1}_{[1,3]}(x).

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Problem 6.22

f(x)=c  1[a,b](x)f(x)=c \; \mathbb {1}_{[a, b]}(x).

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Problem 6.23

f(x)=cxnf(x)=c x^{n} for x∈(0,1)x \in (0,1) and zero otherwise, where n∈Nn \in \mathbb {N}.

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Problem 6.24

f(x)=ce−λxf(x)=c e^{-\lambda x} for x>0x>0 and zero otherwise.

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Problem 6.25

f(x)=cx(1−x)f(x)=c x(1-x) for x∈[0,1]x \in [0,1] and zero otherwise.

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Problem 6.26

f(x)=c(x−[x])f(x)=c(x-[x]) for x∈[0,2]x \in [0,2] and zero otherwise ([x][x] denotes the largest integer not greater than xx).

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Problem 6.27

f(x)=x2  1[0,c](x)f(x)=x^{2} \; \mathbb {1}_{[0, c]}(x).

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Problem 6.28

Prove Theorem 6.2.

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Problem 6.29

f(x)=12  1[1,3](x)f(x)=\frac{1}{2} \; \mathbb {1}_{[1,3]}(x), A=[0,2)A=[0,2).

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Problem 6.30

f(x)=x−[x]f(x)=x-[x] for x∈[0,2]x \in [0,2] and zero otherwise, A=[12,2]A=\left[\frac{1}{2}, 2\right] ([x][x] denotes the largest integer not greater than xx).

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Problem 6.31

f(x)=e−xf(x)=e^{-x} for x⩾0x \geqslant 0 and zero otherwise, A=NA=\mathbb {N}.

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Problem 6.32

f(x)=15  1[−2,3](x)f(x)=\frac{1}{5} \; \mathbb {1}_{[-2,3]}(x), A=(0,1)A=(0,1).

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Problem 6.33

f(x)=12x−12f(x)=\frac{1}{2} x^{-\frac{1}{2}} for x∈(0,1)x \in (0,1) and zero otherwise, A=(0,12)A=\left(0, \frac{1}{2}\right).

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Problem 6.34

Show that δω\delta_{\omega } is a probability measure. What is the largest set of measure 0? What is the smallest set of measure 1?

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Problem 6.35

Let ω1,ω2∈Ω\omega_{1}, \omega_{2} \in \Omega. Show that P(A)=12δω1(A)+12δω2(A)\mathbb {P}\left(A\right)=\frac{1}{2} \delta_{\omega_{1}}(A)+\frac{1}{2} \delta_{\omega_{2}}(A) is a probability measure. Which sets have measure 0?

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Problem 6.36

What are the conditions on αk\alpha_{k} for P=∑k=1∞αkδωkP=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty } \alpha_{k} \delta_{\omega_{k}} to be a probability measure? Which sets have measure 0?

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Problem 6.37

If P1P_{1} and P2P_{2} are probability measures, then P(A)=α1P1(A)+α2P2(A)\mathbb {P}\left(A\right)=\alpha_{1} \mathbb {P}_{1}\left(A\right)+ \alpha_{2} \mathbb {P}_{2}\left(A\right) is also a probability measure provided that α1\alpha_{1} and α2\alpha_{2} are non-negative and α1+α2=1\alpha_{1}+\alpha_{2}=1.

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Problem 6.38

If Pk,k=1,2,…P_{k}, k=1,2, \ldots, are probability measures, αk⩾0\alpha_{k} \geqslant 0 for all kk, and ∑k=1∞αk=1\sum_{k=1}^{\infty } \alpha_{k}=1, then P(A)=∑k=1∞αkPk(A)\mathbb {P}\left(A\right)=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty } \alpha_{k} \mathbb {P}_{k}\left(A\right) is a probability measure.

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Problem 6.39

Define PP by P(A)=13δ0(A)+23P2(A)\mathbb {P}\left(A\right)=\frac{1}{3} \delta_{0}(A)+\frac{2}{3} \mathbb {P}_{2}\left(A\right), where P2P_{2} has density f(x)=12  1[1,3](x)f(x)= \frac{1}{2} \; \mathbb {1}_{[1,3]}(x). Compute P([0,2])\mathbb {P}\left([0,2]\right).

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Problem 6.40

Define PP by P(A)=18δ1(A)+38δ2(A)+12P3(A)\mathbb {P}\left(A\right)=\frac{1}{8} \delta_{1}(A)+\frac{3}{8} \delta_{2}(A)+\frac{1}{2} \mathbb {P}_{3}\left(A\right), where P3P_{3} is given by the density f(x)=12  1[1,3](x)f(x)=\frac{1}{2} \; \mathbb {1}_{[1,3]}(x). Compute P([2,3])\mathbb {P}\left([2,3]\right).

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Problem 6.41

Define PP by P(A)=14δ0(A)+12δ2(A)+14P3(A)\mathbb {P}\left(A\right)=\frac{1}{4} \delta_{0}(A)+\frac{1}{2} \delta_{2}(A)+\frac{1}{4} \mathbb {P}_{3}\left(A\right), where P3P_{3} has density f(x)=e−x  1[0,+∞)(x)f(x)=e^{-x} \; \mathbb {1}_{[0,+\infty )}(x). Compute P([0,1])\mathbb {P}\left([0,1]\right).

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Problem 6.42

Show that if XX is an uncountable set of positive real numbers, then there is a sequence x1,x2,…∈Xx_{1}, x_{2}, \ldots \in X such that ∑i=1∞xi=∞\sum_{i=1}^{\infty } x_{i}=\infty.

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Remark.
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The assertion in this problem means that countable additivity is all that can be required of a probability measure because no uncountable family of disjoint sets AA with P(A)>0\mathbb {P}\left(A\right)>0 can exist anyway, or otherwise P(Ω)\mathbb {P}\left(\Omega \right) would have to be ∞\infty rather than 1.