Appendix II

Complements and Problems

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Problem 1.1

The density of the impact point (X,Y)(X, Y) of a circular target is given by

f(x,y)=c(R−x2+y2)forx2+y2≤R2. f(x, y) = c(R - \sqrt{x^{2} + y^{2}}) \qquad \text{for} \quad x^{2} + y^{2} \leq R^{2}.

Find, (a) the constant cc, (b) the probability pp that the impact point falls in a circle with radius a<Ra < R centered at the origin.

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(a)
(b)
Problem 1.2

The random variables X,YX, Y satisfy the linear relation

aX−bY=c, aX - bY = c,

where a,b,ca, b, c are constants. Find, (a) the correlation ρ(X,Y)\rho (X, Y), and (b) the ratio σx/σy\sigma_{x}/\sigma_{y} of the standard deviations.

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(a)
(b)
Problem 1.3

The dispersion (variance--covariance) matrix of a three-dimensional normal distribution is

(σij)=[52−2263−238]. (\sigma _{ij}) = \begin{bmatrix} 5 & 2 & -2 \\ 2 & 6 & 3 \\ -2 & 3 & 8 \end{bmatrix}.

If μx=μy=μz=0\mu_{x} = \mu_{y} = \mu_{z} = 0, find the density f(x,y,z)f(x, y, z) and its maximum.

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Problem 1.4

The joint density of XX and YY is given by

f(x,y)=ye−y(x+1),x>0,y>0. f(x, y) = ye^{-y(x+1)}, \qquad x > 0, \quad y > 0.

Find, (a) the marginal densities of XX and YY, and (b) the conditional distribution function FX(x∣y)F_{X}(x \mid y) of XX given Y=yY = y.

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(a)
(b)
Problem 1.5

Suppose that the random variable XX coincides with the random variable XiX_{i} with probability pip_{i}, that is,

P(X=Xi)=piandE[Xi]=mi,i=1,2,…. \mathbb {P}\left(X = X_{i}\right) = p_{i} \qquad \text{and} \qquad \mathbb {E}\left[X_{i}\right] = m_{i}, \qquad i = 1, 2, \ldots .

Show that

Var⁡[X]=∑ipiVar⁡[Xi]+Var⁡[M], \operatorname {Var}\left[X\right] = \sum _{i} p_{i} \operatorname {Var}\left[X_{i}\right] + \operatorname {Var}\left[M\right],

where P(M=mi)=pi\mathbb {P}\left(M = m_{i}\right) = p_{i} (i=1,2,…)(i = 1, 2, \ldots ).

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Problem 1.6

The random vector (X,Y,Z)(X, Y, Z) has density f(x,y,z)f(x, y, z). X,Y,ZX, Y, Z can only be observed simultaneously. An observation gave the values u,v,wu, v, w without knowing the correspondence between them and X,Y,ZX, Y, Z. Find the probability that X=uX = u, Y=vY = v, and Z=wZ = w.

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Problem 1.7

The joint distribution function F(x,y)F(x, y) of the random variables XX and YY is given by

F(x,y)=sin⁡xsin⁡y,0≤x≤π/2,0≤y≤π/2. F(x, y) = \sin x \sin y, \qquad 0 \leq x \leq \pi /2, \quad 0 \leq y \leq \pi /2.

Find, (a) the density function f(x,y)f(x, y), and (b) the dispersion matrix.

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(a)
(b)
Problem 1.8

The normal density of a point A=(X1,X2,X3)A = (X_{1}, X_{2}, X_{3}) is given by

f(x,y,z)=1(2π)3/2σ1σ2σ3exp⁡{−12(x2σ12+y2σ22+z2σ32)}. f(x, y, z) = \frac{1}{(2\pi )^{3/2}\sigma _{1}\sigma _{2}\sigma _{3}} \exp \left\{ -\frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{x^{2}}{\sigma _{1}^{2}} + \frac{y^{2}}{\sigma _{2}^{2}} + \frac{z^{2}}{\sigma _{3}^{2}}\right)\right\} .

What is the probability that AA will fall into an ellipsoid, with principal semiaxes E1,E2,E3E_{1}, E_{2}, E_{3} along the axes Ox,Oy,OzOx, Oy, Oz, where E1,E2,E3E_{1}, E_{2}, E_{3} are the probable errors of X,Y,ZX, Y, Z, respectively, i.e.,

P(∣X∣<E1)=P(∣Y∣<E2)=P(∣Z∣<E3)=1/2. \mathbb {P}\left(\left|X\right| < E_{1}\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(\left|Y\right| < E_{2}\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(\left|Z\right| < E_{3}\right) = 1/2.
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Problem 1.9

The vector (X,Y)(X, Y) has the uniform distribution in the ellipse

x2a2+y2b2≤1. \frac{x^{2}}{a^{2}} + \frac{y^{2}}{b^{2}} \leq 1.

Find:

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(a)

the marginal distributions of XX and YY;

(b)

the conditional distributions of XX given that Y=yY = y, and the conditional distributions of YY given that X=xX = x;

(c)

the Cov⁡[X,Y]=σxy\operatorname {Cov}\left[ X, Y \right] = \sigma_{xy}.

Are X,YX, Y independent?

Problem 1.10

The point (X,Y,Z)(X, Y, Z) is uniformly distributed in the sphere x2+y2+z2≤R2x^{2} + y^{2} + z^{2} \leq R^{2}. Find the density of ZZ and the conditional density f(x,y∣z)f(x, y \mid z). Generalize for an nn-dimensional sphere.

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Problem 1.11

Given fY(y)f_{Y}(y), E[X∣y]\mathbb {E}\left[ X \mid y \right], Var⁡[X∣y]\operatorname {Var}\left[ X \mid y \right], find E[X]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right] and Var⁡[X]\operatorname {Var}\left[X\right].

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Problem 1.12

The vector (X,Y)(X, Y) has normal density

f(x,y)=ce−4x2−6xy−9y2. f(x, y) = ce^{-4x^{2} - 6xy - 9y^{2}}.

Find the densities fX(x)f_{X}(x), fY(y)f_{Y}(y), fX(x∣y)f_{X}(x \mid y), fY(y∣x)f_{Y}(y \mid x) and the constant cc.

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Problem 1.13

Suppose that X→\overrightarrow {X} has a spherically symmetric nn-dimensional distribution, i.e., with density f(x12+⋯+xn2)f(x_{1}^{2} + \cdots + x_{n}^{2}). Prove that the density gg of the ``generalized χ2\chi^{2} variable'' U=X→′X→U = \overrightarrow {X}'\overrightarrow {X} is given by

g(u)=12Cnf(u)un/2−1, g(u) = \tfrac {1}{2}C_{n}f(u)u^{n/2-1},

where CnC_{n} is the ``surface'' area of the nn-dimensional sphere, i.e.,

Cn=2πn/2Γ(n/2). C_{n} = \frac{2\pi ^{n/2}}{\Gamma (n/2)}.
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Problem 1.14

(Continuation of Problem 1.13.) For n=2n = 2, show that the polar coordinates (R,θ)(R, \theta ), where

X=Rcos⁡θ,Y=Rsin⁡θ, X = R\cos \theta , \qquad Y = R\sin \theta ,

are independent, θ\theta is uniformly distributed on [0,2π)[0, 2\pi ), and RR has density (cf. Exercise 221)

h(r)=2πrf(r2). h(r) = 2\pi r f(r^{2}).
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Problem 1.15

(Continuation of Problem 1.14.) Show that the correlation coefficient based on the single observation (X,Y)(X, Y), i.e.,

r0=XYX2+Y2 r_{0} = \frac{XY}{X^{2} + Y^{2}}

has density

f(r0)=1π11−r02,−1<r0<1. f(r_{0}) = \frac{1}{\pi } \frac{1}{\sqrt{1 - r_{0}^{2}}}, \qquad -1 < r_{0} < 1.
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Problem 1.16

(Continuation of Problem 1.15.) If X→=(X1,…,Xn)′\overrightarrow {X} = (X_{1}, \ldots , X_{n})' is N(0,In)\mathscr {N}\left(0, I_{n}\right) and X→\overrightarrow {X} is partitioned into kk subvectors X(1),…,X(k)X_{(1)}, \ldots , X_{(k)} with v1,v2,…,vkv_{1}, v_{2}, \ldots , v_{k} components, respectively, show that (X(1)′X(1),…,X(k)′X(k))/∣X∣2(X_{(1)}'X_{(1)}, \ldots , X_{(k)}'X_{(k)})/\left|X\right|^{2} has the Dirichlet distribution (see (5.11)), with density f(t1,…,tk−1)f(t_{1}, \ldots , t_{k-1}) given below.

Formula (5.11), Dirichlet distribution: for x1,…,xkx_{1}, \ldots , x_{k} with ∑i=1k+1xi=1\sum_{i=1}^{k+1} x_{i} = 1, xi≥0x_{i} \geq 0,

f(x1,…,xk)=Γ(n1+⋯+nk+1)Γ(n1)+⋯+Γ(nk+1)∏i=1k+1xini−1. f(x_{1}, \ldots , x_{k}) = \frac{\Gamma (n_{1} + \cdots + n_{k+1})}{\Gamma (n_{1}) + \cdots + \Gamma (n_{k+1})} \prod _{i=1}^{k+1} x_{i}^{n_{i}-1}.

The density f(t1,…,tk−1)f(t_{1}, \ldots , t_{k-1}) asked for here is

f(t1,…,tk−1)=Γ(n2)∏i=1kΓ(vk2)(1−t1−⋯−tk−1)(vk/2)−1∏i=1k−1ti(vi/2)−1, f(t_{1}, \ldots , t_{k-1}) = \frac{\Gamma \left(\dfrac {n}{2}\right)}{\displaystyle \prod _{i=1}^{k} \Gamma \left(\dfrac {v_{k}}{2}\right)} (1 - t_{1} - \cdots - t_{k-1})^{(v_{k}/2)-1} \prod _{i=1}^{k-1} t_{i}^{(v_{i}/2)-1}, ti≥0,∑ti<1. t_{i} \geq 0, \quad \sum t_{i} < 1.

Hence, for v1=v2=⋯=vs=1v_{1} = v_{2} = \cdots = v_{s} = 1, vs+1=n−sv_{s+1} = n - s (k=s+1)(k = s+1),

(∣X1∣,∣X2∣,…,∣Xk∣)∣X∣ \frac{(\left|X_{1}\right|, \left|X_{2}\right|, \ldots , \left|X_{k}\right|)}{\left|X\right|}

has the density

f0(v1,…,vk)=Γ(n2)2kΓ(n−k2)π(1−v12−⋯−vk2)((n−k)/2)−1,vi≥0,∑i=1kvi2<1, f_{0}(v_{1}, \ldots , v_{k}) = \frac{\Gamma \left(\dfrac {n}{2}\right) 2^{k}}{\Gamma \left(\dfrac {n-k}{2}\right)\pi } (1 - v_{1}^{2} - \cdots - v_{k}^{2})^{((n-k)/2)-1}, \qquad v_{i} \geq 0, \quad \sum _{i=1}^{k} v_{i}^{2} < 1,

and the density of (X1,…,Xk)/∣X∣≡(U1,U2,…,Uk)(X_{1}, \ldots , X_{k})/\left|X\right| \equiv (U_{1}, U_{2}, \ldots , U_{k}) is

f0(u1,…,uk)2kif∑i=1kui2<1. \frac{f_{0}(u_{1}, \ldots , u_{k})}{2^{k}} \qquad \text{if} \quad \sum _{i=1}^{k} u_{i}^{2} < 1.

This is the distribution of any kk-dimensional subvector of an nn-dimensional vector

U→=(U1,…,Un) \overrightarrow {U} = (U_{1}, \ldots , U_{n})

uniformly distributed on the (surface of the) unit sphere

x12+⋯+xn2=1. x_{1}^{2} + \cdots + x_{n}^{2} = 1.
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Problem 1.17

(Continuation of Problem 1.16.) In general, if X→\overrightarrow {X} has a spherical distribution (see Problem 1.13), since this is invariant under rotations in nn-space, the distribution of the direction X→/∣X∣\overrightarrow {X}/\left|X\right| is the same as that of U→\overrightarrow {U} and is independent of its length ∣X∣\left|X\right| (for any spherical distribution with P(∣X∣=0)=0\mathbb {P}\left(\left|X\right| = 0\right) = 0).

Hence conclude that the results of Problem 1.16 hold if X→\overrightarrow {X} is any spherically symmetric random vector.

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Problem 1.18

Let X,YX, Y be random variables with

E[X]=μ,E[Y]=η,Var⁡[X]=σ12,Var⁡[Y]=σ22,Cov⁡[X,Y]=σ12. \mathbb {E}\left[X\right] = \mu , \qquad \mathbb {E}\left[Y\right] = \eta , \qquad \operatorname {Var}\left[X\right] = \sigma _{1}^{2}, \qquad \operatorname {Var}\left[Y\right] = \sigma _{2}^{2}, \qquad \operatorname {Cov}\left[ X, Y \right] = \sigma _{12}.

Find an approximate formula for

E[g(X,Y)],Var⁡[g(X,Y)], \mathbb {E}\left[g(X, Y)\right], \quad \operatorname {Var}\left[g(X, Y)\right],

using the linear expansion of g(x,y)g(x, y) around (μ,η)(\mu , \eta ) (up to second-order moments). Generalize for nn random variables.

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Problem 1.19

XX and YY are independent and identically distributed random variables with density given by

f(x)=2π1−x2,0≤x≤1. f(x) = \frac{2}{\pi \sqrt{1 - x^{2}}}, \qquad 0 \leq x \leq 1.

Using Problem 1.18 find the E[Z]\mathbb {E}\left[Z\right] and Var⁡[Z]\operatorname {Var}\left[Z\right] where

Z=arctan⁡XY. Z = \arctan \frac{X}{Y}.
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Problem 1.20

The fundamental frequency of a chord is given by the formula

Ω=12FmL, \Omega = \frac{1}{2}\sqrt{\frac{F}{mL}},

where FF is the tension, mm is the mass of the chord, and LL is its length. If the mass is assumed to be constant and F,LF, L are random variables with E[F]=f\mathbb {E}\left[F\right] = f, E[L]=l\mathbb {E}\left[L\right] = l, Var⁡[F]=σf2\operatorname {Var}\left[F\right] = \sigma_{f}^{2}, Var⁡[L]=σl2\operatorname {Var}\left[L\right] = \sigma_{l}^{2}, and Cov⁡[F,L]=σfl\operatorname {Cov}\left[ F, L \right] = \sigma_{fl}, find an approximation for the variance of Ω\Omega.

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Problem 1.21

Let the vector (X,Y)(X, Y) have density f(x,y)f(x, y). We define the complex variables

Z=X+iY,Zt=Zeit, Z = X + iY, \qquad Z_{t} = Ze^{it},

and Zt=ZeitZ_{t} = Ze^{it}. Prove that, in order for all ZtZ_{t} to have the same distribution, it is necessary that f(x,y)=g(x2+y2)f(x, y) = g(x^{2} + y^{2}) for some density gg (see Problem 1.13).

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Problem 1.22

If X→\overrightarrow {X} has density ff as in Problem 1.13, show that

Y→=μ→+AX→(a nonsingular n×n constant matrix) \overrightarrow {Y} = \overrightarrow {\mu } + A\overrightarrow {X} \qquad \text{(a nonsingular }n \times n\text{ constant matrix)}

has density of the form

c∣Λ∣−1/2f((y→−μ→)′Λ−1(y→−μ→)),Λ=AA′, c\left|\Lambda \right|^{-1/2}f((\overrightarrow {y} - \overrightarrow {\mu })'\Lambda ^{-1}(\overrightarrow {y} - \overrightarrow {\mu })), \qquad \Lambda = AA',

and characteristic function of the form

eit′μψ(t′Λt)for some function ψ. e^{it'\mu }\psi (t'\Lambda t) \qquad \text{for some function } \psi .
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Problem 1.23

Let ρij=ρ(Xi,Xj)\rho_{ij} = \rho (X_{i}, X_{j}) be the correlation coefficient between Xi,XjX_{i}, X_{j} for i,j=1,…,ni, j = 1, \ldots , n. For n=3n = 3 and ρ12=ρ13=ρ23=ρ\rho_{12} = \rho_{13} = \rho_{23} = \rho, what are the possible values that ρ\rho can take?

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Problem 1.24

If the pp vector X→\overrightarrow {X} is N(μ,Λ)\mathscr {N}\left(\mu , \Lambda \right), show that the quadratic form

χ2=(X→−μ→)′Λ−1(X→−μ→) \chi ^{2} = (\overrightarrow {X} - \overrightarrow {\mu })'\Lambda ^{-1}(\overrightarrow {X} - \overrightarrow {\mu })

has the χp2\chi_{p}^{2} distribution, with pp degrees of freedom, and density given by (cf. Problem 1.13)

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Problem 1.25

The entropy HH of a multivariate distribution with density f(x→)f(\overrightarrow {x}) is defined by the formula

H(f)=−E[log⁡f(X→)]=−∫⋯∫f(x→)log⁡f(x→) dx→. H(f) = -\mathbb {E}\left[\log f(\overrightarrow {X})\right] = -\int \cdots \int f(\overrightarrow {x}) \log f(\overrightarrow {x}) \, d\overrightarrow {x}.

Prove that for the normal distribution of Problem 1.24

H=log⁡[(2πe)p/2∣Λ∣−1/2]. H = \log \left[(2\pi e)^{p/2}\left|\Lambda \right|^{-1/2}\right].
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Problem 1.26

If X→\overrightarrow {X} is N(μ,Λ)\mathscr {N}\left(\mu , \Lambda \right) with density ff, find the density gg of the random variable

Y=f(X→). Y = f(\overrightarrow {X}).
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Problem 1.27

If X→=(X1,…,Xn)\overrightarrow {X} = (X_{1}, \ldots , X_{n}) is uniformly distributed in the simplex TT:

x1+x2+⋯+xn≤1,xi≥0,i=1,…,n, x_{1} + x_{2} + \cdots + x_{n} \leq 1, \qquad x_{i} \geq 0, \qquad i = 1, \ldots , n,

show that the density of X→\overrightarrow {X} is

f(x→)=n!forx→∈T. f(\overrightarrow {x}) = n! \qquad \text{for} \quad \overrightarrow {x} \in T.

Show that the (n−1)(n-1)-dimensional marginals are also special cases of the Dirichlet distribution (5.11).

Formula (5.11), Dirichlet distribution: for x1,…,xkx_{1}, \ldots , x_{k} with ∑i=1k+1xi=1\sum_{i=1}^{k+1} x_{i} = 1, xi≥0x_{i} \geq 0,

f(x1,…,xk)=Γ(n1+⋯+nk+1)Γ(n1)+⋯+Γ(nk+1)∏i=1k+1xini−1. f(x_{1}, \ldots , x_{k}) = \frac{\Gamma (n_{1} + \cdots + n_{k+1})}{\Gamma (n_{1}) + \cdots + \Gamma (n_{k+1})} \prod _{i=1}^{k+1} x_{i}^{n_{i}-1}.
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Problem 2.1

Two persons shoot at a target, each has nn shots. Using generating functions, find the probability pp that they have the same number of successes, given that each of them has a probability 0.50.5 of success (hitting the target) at each shot.

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Problem 2.2

To obtain the title of champion in chess, an opponent has to win at least 12.512.5 points out of the maximum of 2424. In the case of a tie (12:1212:12), the defending champion maintains the title. The probability that each of the two players wins a game is the same, and equals half the probability of a tie. Find:

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(a)

the probability pchp_{\mathrm{ch}} that the defending champion will maintain his title, as well as the probability popp_{\mathrm{op}} that the opponent will become the champion;

(b)

the probability pp that 2020 games will be played in the contest.

Problem 2.3

In a lottery, tickets are numbered from 000000000000 to 999999999999 and they are all equally probable. What is the probability pp that the sum of the digits of a chosen number be 2121?

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Problem 2.4

Prove that the Pascal distribution, for r→∞r \to \infty and rq→λrq \to \lambda, converges to the Poisson with parameter λ\lambda.

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Problem 2.5

Let X,Y,ZX, Y, Z be independent random variables, each taking the values 1,2,…,n1, 2, \ldots , n with the same probability (uniformly). Find P(X+Y=2Z)\mathbb {P}\left(X + Y = 2Z\right) from their joint generating function G(t1,t2,t3)G(t_{1}, t_{2}, t_{3}).

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Problem 2.6

In Exercise 315, let

qn,k=P(Sn≤k). q_{n,k} = \mathbb {P}\left(S_{n} \leq k\right).

Find the generating function Q(t)Q(t) of qn,kq_{n,k} for a given nn and hence qn,kq_{n,k}.

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Problem 2.7

(Continuation of Problem 2.6.) Suppose kk and mm tend to infinity so that k/m→xk/m \to x. Find the limit of qn,kq_{n,k}.

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Problem 2.8

Find the densities of the distributions with characteristic functions

φ1(t)=1+it1+t2,φ2(t)=1−it1+t2. \varphi _{1}(t) = \frac{1+it}{1+t^{2}}, \qquad \varphi _{2}(t) = \frac{1-it}{1+t^{2}}.
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Problem 2.9

Find the moments of the Laplace distribution with characteristic function

φ(t)=11+t2. \varphi (t) = \frac{1}{1+t^{2}}.
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Problem 2.10

Determine the distribution with characteristic function

φ(t)=12e−it−1. \varphi (t) = \frac{1}{2e^{-it} - 1}.
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Problem 2.11

Find the characteristic function of Y=aF(X)+bY = aF(X) + b, where XX is a continuous random variable and FF is its distribution function.

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Problem 2.12

A vector ξ=(X1,…,Xn)\xi = (X_{1}, \ldots , X_{n}) follows the nn-dimensional normal distribution with E[Xi]=a\mathbb {E}\left[X_{i}\right] = a, Var⁡[Xi]=σ2\operatorname {Var}\left[X_{i}\right] = \sigma^{2} (i=1,…,n)(i = 1, \ldots , n) and covariances

Cov⁡[Xi,Xi+1]=ρσ2,i=1,2,…,n−1, \operatorname {Cov}\left[ X_{i}, X_{i+1} \right] = \rho \sigma ^{2}, \qquad i = 1, 2, \ldots , n-1, Cov⁡[Xi,Xj]=0for∣i−j∣>1. \operatorname {Cov}\left[ X_{i}, X_{j} \right] = 0 \qquad \text{for} \quad \left|i-j\right| > 1.

Find the characteristic function of ξ\xi.

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Problem 2.13

Let φ(t)\varphi (t) be the characteristic function of a random variable XX with E[X2]=μ2′\mathbb {E}\left[X^{2}\right] = \mu_{2}'.

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(a)

Prove that

ψ(t)=−1μ2′φ′′(t) \psi (t) = -\frac{1}{\mu _{2}'}\varphi ''(t)

is a characteristic function.

(b)

Conclude that

ψ0(t)=(1−t2)e−t2/2 \psi _{0}(t) = (1-t^{2})e^{-t^{2}/2}

is a characteristic function.

Problem 2.14

Show that

a(t)={1−(∣t∣/π),for ∣t∣<π,0,for ∣t∣>π, a(t) = \begin{cases} 1 - (\left|t\right|/\pi ), & \text{for } \left|t\right| < \pi , \\ 0, & \text{for } \left|t\right| > \pi , \end{cases}

is the characteristic function of a random variable XX, and determine the corresponding distribution.

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Problem 2.15

Let X1,X2,X3X_{1}, X_{2}, X_{3} be independent N(0,1)\mathscr {N}\left(0, 1\right). Find the characteristic function of the pair Z1,Z2Z_{1}, Z_{2}, where

Z1=X2X3,Z2=X1X3. Z_{1} = X_{2}X_{3}, \qquad Z_{2} = X_{1}X_{3}.

Hence conclude the characteristic function of Z1Z_{1}. Are Z1,Z2Z_{1}, Z_{2} independent?

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Problem 2.16

Find the distributions corresponding to the characteristic functions

φ1(t)=1cosh⁡t,φ2(t)=1sinh⁡t,φ3(t)=1cosh⁡2t. \varphi _{1}(t) = \frac{1}{\cosh t}, \qquad \varphi _{2}(t) = \frac{1}{\sinh t}, \qquad \varphi _{3}(t) = \frac{1}{\cosh ^{2} t}.
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Problem 2.17

Show that

P(s1,s2)=p0r(1−p1s1−p2s2)−r, P(s_{1}, s_{2}) = p_{0}^{r}(1 - p_{1}s_{1} - p_{2}s_{2})^{-r},

with positive parameters and p0+p1+p2=1p_{0} + p_{1} + p_{2} = 1 is the probability generating function of a pair (X,Y)(X, Y), so that the marginal distributions of XX and YY and X+YX + Y are negative binomials.

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Problem 2.18

Let a ``round'' consist of a sequence of Bernoulli trials before the first failure. Find the generating function and the probability function of the total number SkS_{k} of successes in kk rounds.

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Problem 2.19

(Continuation of Problem 2.18.) Let GG be the number of successive rounds up to the nnth success (i.e., the nnth success occurs during the GGth round). Find the distribution of GG and the

E[G],Var⁡[G]. \mathbb {E}\left[G\right], \operatorname {Var}\left[G\right].
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Problem 2.20

(Continuation of Problem 2.19.) Consider two independent sequences of Bernoulli variables with parameters p1p_{1} and p2p_{2}, respectively, or two players with ``skills'' p1p_{1} and p2p_{2}, respectively. Prove that each player will need the same number of rounds (trials) until the NNth success (a tie) with probability

(p1p2)N∑v=1∞(N+v−2v−1)(q1q2)v−1 (p_{1}p_{2})^{N} \sum _{v=1}^{\infty } \binom {N+v-2}{v-1}(q_{1}q_{2})^{v-1} =(p1p2)N(1−q1q2)1−2N∑k=0N−1(N−1k)(q1q2)k. = (p_{1}p_{2})^{N}(1 - q_{1}q_{2})^{1-2N} \sum _{k=0}^{N-1} \binom {N-1}{k}(q_{1}q_{2})^{k}.
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Problem 2.21

Show that the characteristic function of the β\beta density (2.10) is

Γ(p+q)Γ(p)∑j=0∞Γ(p+j)(it)jΓ(p+q+j)Γ(j+1). \frac{\Gamma (p+q)}{\Gamma (p)} \sum _{j=0}^{\infty } \frac{\Gamma (p+j)(it)^{j}}{\Gamma (p+q+j)\Gamma (j+1)}.

Formula (2.10), the beta density on (0,1)(0,1) with parameters p,q>0p, q > 0:

f(x)=Γ(p+q)Γ(p)Γ(q)xp−1(1−x)q−1,0<x<1. f(x) = \frac{\Gamma (p+q)}{\Gamma (p)\Gamma (q)} x^{p-1}(1-x)^{q-1}, \qquad 0 < x < 1.
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Problem 2.22

Show that the characteristic function of the density in Problem 1.13 is of the form φ(t12+t22+⋯+tn2)\varphi (t_{1}^{2} + t_{2}^{2} + \cdots + t_{n}^{2}) (see Problem 1.21). If

φ(t12+⋯+tn2)=∏i=1nφ(ti2),(*) \varphi (t_{1}^{2} + \cdots + t_{n}^{2}) = \prod _{i=1}^{n} \varphi (t_{i}^{2}), \tag {*}

that is, X1,X2,…,XnX_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots , X_{n} are independent, prove that X→\overrightarrow {X} is N(0,I)\mathscr {N}\left(0, I\right). In other words, a spherically symmetric random vector has independent components if and only if it is multivariate normal.

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Problem 3.1

Find the density of

Y=+∣X∣, Y = +\sqrt{\left|X\right|},

where X∼N(0,1)X \sim N(0, 1).

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Problem 3.2

XX has a uniform distribution on (0,1)(0, 1). Find the density of the random variable YY defined by

X=12{1+22π∫0Yexp⁡{−t22} dt}. X = \frac{1}{2}\left\{ 1 + \frac{2}{\sqrt{2\pi }} \int _{0}^{Y} \exp \left\{ -\frac{t^{2}}{2}\right\} \, dt\right\} .
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Problem 3.3

The random variables XX and YY are related by

X=∫−∞Yf(t) dt, X = \int _{-\infty }^{Y} f(t) \, dt,

where f(t)≥0f(t) \geq 0 satisfies

∫−∞∞f(t) dt=1. \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f(t) \, dt = 1.

Prove that if XX is uniform on (0,1)(0, 1), then f(t)f(t) is the density of YY (see Exercise 227).

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Problem 3.4

Suppose XX and YY are independent random variables. Prove that the product XYXY has the same distribution if:

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(a)

XX and YY are N(0,1)N(0, 1); or

(b)

XX is N(0,1)N(0, 1) and YY has density

f(y)=ye−y2/2,y≥0(χ2 density; see (2.11)). f(y) = ye^{-y^{2}/2}, \qquad y \geq 0 \qquad (\chi _{2} \text{ density; see (2.11)}).
Problem 3.5

The roots of x2+Yx+Z=0x^{2} + Yx + Z = 0 follow the normal distribution (−1,1)(-1, 1). Find the density of the coefficients YY and ZZ (cf. Exercise 222).

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Problem 3.6

Let f(x,y,z)f(x, y, z) be the density of a point (X,Y,Z)(X, Y, Z) in the three-dimensional space and

R2=X2+Y2+Z2,θ=arcsin⁡YR. R^{2} = X^{2} + Y^{2} + Z^{2}, \qquad \theta = \arcsin \frac{Y}{R}.

What is the density of the pair (R,θ)(R, \theta )?

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Problem 3.7

XX and YY are independent normal N(0,σ2)N(0, \sigma^{2}). Find the distribution of

?
(a)

Z=X/∣Y∣Z = X/\left|Y\right|;

(b)

W=∣X∣/YW = \left|X\right|/Y.

Problem 3.8

XX and YY are independent random variables with uniform distribution on (0,a)(0, a). Find the distribution of Z=X/YZ = X/Y and examine the existence of moments of ZZ.

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Problem 3.9

The joint density of X,YX, Y is

f(x,y)=e−yfor0≤x≤y<∞. f(x, y) = e^{-y} \qquad \text{for} \quad 0 \leq x \leq y < \infty .
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(a)

Find the marginal distributions of XX, YY and the conditional distribution of YY for given XX.

(b)

Of the variables XX, YY, Y−XY - X, and X/YX/Y which are pairwise independent?

(c)

In the conditional distribution of YY, given X=xX = x, determine the interval (y,y+a)(y, y + a) so that

Q(a)=P(y≤Y≤y+a) Q(a) = \mathbb {P}\left(y \leq Y \leq y + a\right)

can be maximized. These intervals with variable xx define a zone BB. What is the probability of the zone, i.e.,

P((X,Y)∈B)=P(B)? \mathbb {P}\left((X, Y) \in B\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(B\right)?
Problem 3.10

X,YX, Y are independent exponentials each with density

f(t)=θe−θt,t≥0.(1) f(t) = \theta e^{-\theta t}, \qquad t \geq 0. \tag {1}
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(a)

Find the joint conditional density of X,YX, Y, given that X≤YX \leq Y (ordered sample of two observations).

(b)

Let X1≤X2≤X3≤X4X_{1} \leq X_{2} \leq X_{3} \leq X_{4} be an ordered sample from (1). What is the density f1f_{1} of (X1,X2)(X_{1}, X_{2}) and what is the conditional density f2f_{2} of (X3,X4)(X_{3}, X_{4}) for a given (X1,X2)(X_{1}, X_{2})? What do you conclude?

Problem 3.11

If the random variables XiX_{i} are independent normal N(a+bti,σ2)N(a + bt_{i}, \sigma^{2}) (i=1,…,n)(i = 1, \ldots , n), where tit_{i} are constants with ∑i=1nti=0\sum_{i=1}^{n} t_{i} = 0, find:

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(a)

the joint distribution of X1,…,XnX_{1}, \ldots , X_{n};

(b)

the joint distribution of

X‾=1n∑i=1nXiandb=∑i=1ntiXi/∑i=1nti2. \overline{X} = \frac{1}{n} \sum _{i=1}^{n} X_{i} \qquad \text{and} \qquad b = \sum _{i=1}^{n} t_{i} X_{i} \bigg/ \sum _{i=1}^{n} t_{i}^{2}.
Problem 3.12

(Continuation of Problem 3.11.) By a proper orthogonal transformation of X=(X1,…,Xn)′\mathbf{X} = (X_{1}, \ldots , X_{n})', say Y=0X\mathbf{Y} = 0\mathbf{X} (00 an n×nn \times n orthogonal matrix), prove that the random variables X‾\overline{X}, bb and ∑i=1n(Xi−X‾−bti)2\sum_{i=1}^{n} (X_{i} - \overline{X} - bt_{i})^{2} are completely independent. Conclude that ∑i=1n(Xi−X‾−bti)2/σ2\sum_{i=1}^{n} (X_{i} - \overline{X} - bt_{i})^{2}/\sigma^{2} has the χ2\chi^{2} distribution with n−2n - 2 degrees of freedom.

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Problem 3.13

XX and YY are jointly normal with E[X]=E[Y]=0\mathbb {E}\left[X\right] = \mathbb {E}\left[Y\right] = 0, Var⁡[X]=Var⁡[Y]=1\operatorname {Var}\left[X\right] = \operatorname {Var}\left[Y\right] = 1, and Corr⁡[X,Y]=ρ\operatorname {Corr}\left[ X, Y \right] = \rho, ∣ρ∣<1\left|\rho \right| < 1. Consider the polar coordinates R=X2+Y2R = \sqrt{X^{2} + Y^{2}} and θ=tan⁡−1(Y/X)\theta = \tan^{-1}(Y/X). Show that θ\theta has density (cf. Exercises 220, 221)

f(θ)=1−ρ22π(1−ρsin⁡2θ),0<θ<2π. f(\theta ) = \frac{\sqrt{1 - \rho ^{2}}}{2\pi (1 - \rho \sin 2\theta )}, \qquad 0 < \theta < 2\pi .
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Problem 3.14

The random vector X=(X1,…,Xk)\mathbf{X} = (X_{1}, \ldots , X_{k}) has the density

f(x)=Γ((k+n)/2)Γ(k/2)(kπ)k/2[1+(x−μ)′Λ−1(x−μ)]−(n+k)/2. f(\mathbf{x}) = \frac{\Gamma ((k+n)/2)}{\Gamma (k/2)(k\pi )^{k/2}} [1 + (\mathbf{x} - \boldsymbol {\mu })' \Lambda ^{-1} (\mathbf{x} - \boldsymbol {\mu })]^{-(n+k)/2}.

If Λ=I\Lambda = I and k=1k = 1 this is the Student distribution with nn degrees of freedom. If Λ=Ik\Lambda = I_{k}, then XX has a spherically symmetric tt distribution (see Problem 1.13). Show that:

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(a)

E[X]=μ\mathbb {E}\left[\mathbf{X}\right] = \boldsymbol {\mu }.

(b)

X\mathbf{X} has the same distribution as

μ+Λ1/2Z/χn2, \boldsymbol {\mu } + \Lambda ^{1/2} \mathbf{Z}/\chi _{n}^{2},

where Z\mathbf{Z} is N(0,Ik)N(0, I_{k}) independent of the χn2\chi_{n}^{2}. Hence conclude that (cf. Problem 1.24)

F=1kχn2(X−μ)′Λ−1(X−μ)isFk,n. F = \frac{1}{k\chi _{n}^{2}} (\mathbf{X} - \boldsymbol {\mu })' \Lambda ^{-1} (\mathbf{X} - \boldsymbol {\mu }) \quad \text{is} \quad F_{k,n}.
(c)

As n→∞n \to \infty,

X→LZ. \mathbf{X} \overset {L}{\to } \mathbf{Z}.
Problem 3.15

Let f(x)f(x) denote the density of a random variable XX. If f(⋅)f(\cdot ) is monotone and bounded, then f(X)f(X) has a uniform distribution if and only if XX has the (negative) exponential distribution.

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Problem 4.1

A Geiger--Muller counter registers a particle emitted by a radioactive source with probability 10−410^{-4}.

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(a)

Assuming that during a certain period, the source emitted 3×1043 \times 10^{4}, what is the probability that more than two particles will be registered.

(b)

How many particles have to be emitted so that at least four particles will be registered with probability 0.990.99?

Problem 4.2

In some of the countries of western Europe, from the seventeenth century up to World War I, the following state lottery was played: 5 numbers out of 90 were drawn and a player had the right to bet, say, an amount aa, on one or more numbers; if all the numbers he had chosen were among the 5 numbers drawn, then he would win an amount determined as follows: 15a15a if he had bet on one number, 270a270a if he had bet on 2 numbers, 500a500a if he had bet on 3 numbers, 75,000a75{,}000a if he had bet on 4 numbers, and 1,000,000a1{,}000{,}000a if he had bet on 5 numbers.

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(a)

What is the expected gain of a player who is betting on 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 numbers?

(b)

Suppose that 100,000 players bet on 3 numbers; what is the probability that at least 10 players win?

Problem 4.3

Making use of the Stirling formula prove that, as λ→∞\lambda \to \infty and for a constant kk, we have the local limit theorem for the approximation of the Poisson probability function by the normal

λ∣λkk!e−λ−12πλexp⁡{−12λ(k−λ)2}∣→0. \sqrt{\lambda } \left|\frac{\lambda ^{k}}{k!} e^{-\lambda } - \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \lambda }} \exp \left\{ -\frac{1}{2\lambda }(k - \lambda )^{2}\right\} \right| \to 0.
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Problem 4.4

If Xn→PcX_{n} \overset {P}{\to } c and ff is continuous at cc, then f(Xn)→Pf(c)f(X_{n}) \overset {P}{\to } f(c).

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Problem 4.5

Suppose {Xn,n≥1}\left\{ X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\} is a sequence of random variables with E[Xn]=θ\mathbb {E}\left[X_{n}\right] = \theta and Var⁡[Xn]=σ2(θ)\operatorname {Var}\left[X_{n}\right] = \sigma^{2}(\theta ) where the parameter θ\theta takes values in some interval. Prove that if σn2(θ)→0\sigma_{n}^{2}(\theta ) \to 0, then

E[g(Xn)]→g(θ) \mathbb {E}\left[g(X_{n})\right] \to g(\theta )

for any bounded and continuous function gg.

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Problem 4.6

(Continuation of Problem 4.5.) If FnF_{n} is the ``binomial'' with

σn2(θ)=θ(1−θ)n, \sigma _{n}^{2}(\theta ) = \frac{\theta (1 - \theta )}{n},

and gg is defined in [0,1][0, 1], then the Bernstein polynomial

∑k=0ng(kn)(nk)θk(1−θ)n−k⟶n→∞g(θ)(1) \sum _{k=0}^{n} g\left(\frac{k}{n}\right) \binom {n}{k} \theta ^{k} (1 - \theta )^{n-k} \underset {n \to \infty }{\longrightarrow } g(\theta ) \tag {1}

uniformly in 0≤θ≤10 \leq \theta \leq 1. So we have a simple proof of the Weierstrass Approximation Theorem, according to which such a function gg can be uniformly approximated by a polynomial. Moreover, (1) results in approximating polynomials.

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Problem 4.7

(Continuation of Problem 4.6.) If nXnnX_{n} is Poisson with parameter nθn\theta, then

e−nθ∑k=0∞g(kn)(nθ)kk!→g(θ)(2) e^{-n\theta } \sum _{k=0}^{\infty } g\left(\frac{k}{n}\right) \frac{(n\theta )^{k}}{k!} \to g(\theta ) \tag {2}

and the convergence is uniform in every finite interval of values of θ\theta. Equation (2) also holds true for nonintegral values of nn.

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Problem 4.8

Suppose X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots is a sequence of independent normal random variables with E[Xi]=0\mathbb {E}\left[X_{i}\right] = 0 and Var⁡[Xi]=1\operatorname {Var}\left[X_{i}\right] = 1 and let

ξn=nX1+⋯+XnX12+⋯+Xn2,ζn=X1+⋯+XnX12+⋯+Xn2. \xi _{n} = \sqrt{n} \frac{X_{1} + \cdots + X_{n}}{X_{1}^{2} + \cdots + X_{n}^{2}}, \qquad \zeta _{n} = \frac{X_{1} + \cdots + X_{n}}{\sqrt{X_{1}^{2} + \cdots + X_{n}^{2}}}.

Prove that ξn\xi_{n} and ζn→N(0,1)\zeta_{n} \to N(0, 1).

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Problem 4.9

(Continuation of Problem 4.8.) Find the asymptotic (n→∞n \to \infty) distribution of

χn2=∑k=1nXk2andξn=nXn+1χn2. \chi _{n}^{2} = \sum _{k=1}^{n} X_{k}^{2} \qquad \text{and} \qquad \xi _{n} = \frac{nX_{n+1}}{\chi _{n}^{2}}.
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Problem 4.10

nn numbers are chosen at random from the integers 1,2,…,N1, 2, \ldots , N, say k1,k2,…,knk_{1}, k_{2}, \ldots , k_{n}. We set Xi=0X_{i} = 0 if ki=0k_{i} = 0 modulo 3, Xi=1X_{i} = 1 if ki=1k_{i} = 1 modulo 3, and Xi=−1X_{i} = -1 if ki=2k_{i} = 2 modulo 3. Set Sn=∑i=1nXiS_{n} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{i}. Prove that when nn and N→∞N \to \infty so that n/N→c>0n/N \to c > 0, Sn/n→LN(0,2/3)S_{n}/\sqrt{n} \overset {L}{\to } N(0, 2/3).

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Problem 4.11

Suppose SN=X1+X2+⋯XNS_{N} = X_{1} + X_{2} + \cdots X_{N} is the sum of a random number NN of random variables XiX_{i}, where XiX_{i} and NN are independent, ∣Xi∣<c\left|X_{i}\right| < c, E[Xi]=μ\mathbb {E}\left[X_{i}\right] = \mu, Var⁡[Xi]=σ2\operatorname {Var}\left[X_{i}\right] = \sigma^{2}, E[N]=n\mathbb {E}\left[N\right] = n, and Var⁡[N]≤n1−ε\operatorname {Var}\left[N\right] \leq n^{1-\varepsilon }, ε>0\varepsilon > 0. Make use of Exercise 328 and the CLT, and prove that as n→∞n \to \infty

SN−nμσn→N(0,1). \frac{S_{N} - n\mu }{\sigma \sqrt{n}} \to N(0, 1).
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Problem 4.12

Let {Xn,n≥1}\left\{ X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\} be a sequence of independent random variables and

P(Xn=±12n)=12,n=1,2,…. \mathbb {P}\left(X_{n} = \pm \frac{1}{2^{n}}\right) = \frac{1}{2}, \qquad n = 1, 2, \ldots .

Prove that the sum

Sn=X1+…+Xn S_{n} = X_{1} + \ldots + X_{n}
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(a)

converges in law, and

(b)

find its asymptotic distribution.

Problem 4.13

If a sequence of normal random variable(s) XnX_{n} converges in law to the random variable XX, then XX is also normal or degenerate.

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Problem 4.14

Prove that the negative binomial

P(X=k)=(r+k−1k)prqk,k=0,1,2,…,(1) \mathbb {P}\left(X = k\right) = \binom {r+k-1}{k} p^{r} q^{k}, \qquad k = 0, 1, 2, \ldots , \tag {1}

with r→∞r \to \infty and q→0q \to 0 so that rq→λ>0rq \to \lambda > 0, converges to a Poisson with parameter λ\lambda.

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Problem 4.15

If the stochastic sequence {Xn}\left\{ X_{n}\right\} converges in probability to the random variable XX, where P(X≠0)=1\mathbb {P}\left(X \neq 0\right) = 1, then the sequence {1/Xn}→P1/X\left\{ 1/X_{n}\right\} \overset {P}{\to } 1/X.

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Problem 4.16

Consider the sequence {Xn}\left\{ X_{n}\right\} of independent random variables with

P(Xn=±an)=1/2,n=1,2,…. \mathbb {P}\left(X_{n} = \pm a_{n}\right) = 1/2, \qquad n = 1, 2, \ldots .

If the series ∑an2\sum a_{n}^{2} converges, prove that the sequence of partial sums

Sn=X1+⋯+Xn, S_{n} = X_{1} + \cdots + X_{n},

also converges in each of the four modes of convergence (see Chapter 8).

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Problem 4.17

Let {Xk}\left\{ X_{k}\right\} be a sequence of random variable(s) with

P(Xk=±ka)=1/2. \mathbb {P}\left(X_{k} = \pm k^{a}\right) = 1/2.
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(a)

Find the values of aa for which

X‾n=1n∑k=1nXk→0 \overline{X}_{n} = \frac{1}{n} \sum _{k=1}^{n} X_{k} \to 0

in probability, almost surely, and in quadratic mean.

(b)

Examine the convergence of X‾n\overline{X}_{n} in law for a=1/2a = 1/2.

Problem 4.18

By the so-called Monte Carlo method, how many trials are needed to estimate the integral

I=∫0π/2sin⁡x dx, I = \int _{0}^{\pi /2} \sin x \, dx,

so that the absolute error of the estimate will not exceed 0.1%0.1\% of II, with probability p≥0.99p \geq 0.99?

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Problem 4.19

Suppose VV is a region of a plane with area one and ff defined in VV with ∣f(x,y)∣≤c\left|f(x, y)\right| \leq c. For the calculation of I=∬Vf(x,y) dx dyI = \iint_{V} f(x, y) \, dx \, dy, by the Monte Carlo method, we randomly choose nn points (x1,y1),(x2,y2),…,(xn,yn)(x_{1}, y_{1}), (x_{2}, y_{2}), \ldots , (x_{n}, y_{n}) in VV and we calculate II according to the formula

In=1n∑i=1nf(xi,yi). I_{n} = \frac{1}{n} \sum _{i=1}^{n} f(x_{i}, y_{i}).

Prove that

E[In]=I,Var⁡[In]≤c24n. \mathbb {E}\left[I_{n}\right] = I, \qquad \operatorname {Var}\left[I_{n}\right] \leq \frac{c^{2}}{4n}.
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Problem 5.1

In the study of sequences of events A1,A2,…A_{1}, A_{2}, \ldots with pk=P(Ak)p_{k} = \mathbb {P}\left(A_{k}\right), a significant role is played by the Borel--Cantelli lemma:

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(a)

If the series ∑pk\sum p_{k} converges, then a finite number of the events AkA_{k} occurs with probability 1.

(b)

If the events are (completely) independent and the series ∑pk\sum p_{k} diverges, then an infinite number of the events AkA_{k} occur with probability 1.

Problem 5.2

Suppose {Xn,n≥1}\left\{ X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\} is a sequence of independent random variables, and for any c>0c > 0, consider the truncated random variables

Xn′={Xnif ∣Xn∣≤c,0otherwise. X_{n}' = \begin{cases} X_{n} & \text{if } \left|X_{n}\right| \leq c, \\ 0 & \text{otherwise.} \end{cases}

Then the series

S=∑n=1∞Xn S = \sum _{n=1}^{\infty } X_{n}

converges with probability 1 if and only if the following three series converge:

∑P(∣Xn∣>c)<∞,∑Var⁡[Xn]<∞and∑E[Xn′]. \sum \mathbb {P}\left(\left|X_{n}\right| > c\right) < \infty , \qquad \sum \operatorname {Var}\left[X_{n}\right] < \infty \qquad \text{and} \qquad \sum \mathbb {E}\left[X_{n}'\right].

Otherwise, SS converges with probability 0.

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Problem 5.3

This law concerns the frequency of appearance of large values of the standardized number of successes,

Sn∗=Sn−npnpq, S_{n}^{*} = \frac{S_{n}-n p}{\sqrt{n p q}},

in an infinite sequence of Bernoulli trials. According to the De Moivre--Laplace Central Limit Theorem (CLT), we have

P(Sn∗>x)∼1−Φ(x), \mathbb {P}\left(S_{n}^{*} > x\right) \sim 1-\Phi (x),

where ∼\sim means that the ratio of the two sides tends to one.

Therefore, for a particular nn, large values (>4>4) of Sn∗S_{n}^{*} are improbable, but, obviously, for large nn, it is possible for Sn∗S_{n}^{*} to exceed, sooner or later, any large value. How soon this may occur is given by the Law of the Iterated Logarithm (Khintchine; see, e.g., Feller, 1957). With probability 1

lim sup⁡n→∞Sn∗2log⁡log⁡n=1,(1) \limsup _{n \rightarrow \infty } \frac{S_{n}^{*}}{\sqrt{2 \log \log n}} = 1, \tag {1}

i.e., for λ>1\lambda > 1, only a finite number of the events

Sn>np+λnpq2log⁡log⁡n(2) S_{n} > n p+\lambda \sqrt{n p q} \sqrt{2 \log \log n} \tag {2}

occurs with probability 1, while for λ<1\lambda < 1, (2) holds for infinitely many nn with probability 1.

For reasons of symmetry (of the distribution of Sn∗S_{n}^{*}), (1) implies

lim inf⁡n→∞Sn∗2log⁡log⁡n=−1. \liminf _{n \rightarrow \infty } \frac{S_{n}^{*}}{\sqrt{2 \log \log n}} = -1.

The behavior of SnS_{n} is further illustrated by the following:

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(a)

There exists a constant c>0c > 0 that depends on pp, but not on nn, so that for all nn

P(Sn>np)>c. \mathbb {P}\left(S_{n} > n p\right) > c.
(b)

Suppose xx (0≤x<10 \leq x < 1), with decimal expansion

x=0,a1a2a3,…,(3) x = 0, a_{1} a_{2} a_{3}, \ldots , \tag {3}

where each aia_{i} is one of the digits 0,1,…,90, 1, \ldots , 9. Let ai=0a_{i} = 0 (instead of 0 we could have chosen any other digit) define a success with p=1/10p = 1/10. Therefore, (3) corresponds to an infinite sequence of Bernoulli trials with p=1/10p = 1/10, and all the limit theorems concerning Bernoulli trials with p=1/10p = 1/10 can be translated into theorems on decimal expansions. Sn(x)S_{n}(x), the number of zeros among the first nn decimal digits of xx, takes the place of SnS_{n}. Show that

  1. Sn(x)/x→0.1S_{n}(x)/x \rightarrow 0.1 in measure (Lebesgue) (in probability).

  2. Sn(x)/x→0.1S_{n}(x)/x \rightarrow 0.1 almost everywhere (with probability 1).

  3. lim sup⁡n→∞Sn−n/10(nlog⁡log⁡n)1/2\displaystyle \limsup_{n \rightarrow \infty } \frac{S_{n}-n/10}{(n \log \log n)^{1/2}}.

Problem 5.4

Let {Xn,n≥1}\left\{ X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\} be a sequence of independent random variables and AA an event independent of (any event defined in terms of) X1,…,XkX_{1}, \ldots , X_{k} for every kk. Then, either P(A)=0\mathbb {P}\left(A\right) = 0 or P(A)=1\mathbb {P}\left(A\right) = 1.

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Problem 5.5

For large xx (x→∞x \rightarrow \infty), the approximation

1−Φ(x)∼1xφ(x)(4) 1-\Phi (x) \sim \frac{1}{x} \varphi (x) \tag {4}

is valid; more precisely, for every x>0x > 0, the double inequality

φ(x)(1x−1x3)<1−Φ(x)<φ(x)1x(5) \varphi (x)\left(\frac{1}{x}-\frac{1}{x^{3}}\right) < 1-\Phi (x) < \varphi (x) \frac{1}{x} \tag {5}

is valid. Moreover, for every constant a>0a > 0 show that, as x→∞x \rightarrow \infty,

{1−Φ(x+ax)}÷{1−Φ(x)}→e−a. \left\{ 1-\Phi \left(x+\frac{a}{x}\right)\right\} \div \left\{ 1-\Phi (x)\right\} \rightarrow e^{-a}.
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Problem 5.6

Consider a sequence {An,n≥1}\left\{ A_{n}, n \geq 1\right\} of independent events. Then a finite or infinite number of events AkA_{k} occur with probability 1, according to whether the series ∑nP(An)\sum_{n} \mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right) converges or diverges, respectively (see the above Borel--Cantelli Lemma). Show this by using the Three-Series Theorem.

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Problem 5.7

Let {Xn,n≥1}\left\{ X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\} be a sequence of random variables with μn=E[Xn]<∞\mu_{n} = \mathbb {E}\left[X_{n}\right] < \infty and XX a random variable with Var⁡[X]<∞\operatorname {Var}\left[X\right] < \infty. If, for each kk, X1,…,XkX_{1}, \ldots , X_{k} and X−(X1+⋯+Xk)X-(X_{1}+\cdots +X_{k}) are independent, prove that Var⁡[Xk]<∞\operatorname {Var}\left[X_{k}\right] < \infty for every kk, and that the series

∑(Xk−E[Xk]) \sum (X_{k}-\mathbb {E}\left[X_{k}\right])

converges with probability 1 (almost everywhere or almost surely).

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Problem 5.8

In a sequence of (independent) Bernoulli trials with probability of success pp, the event AkA_{k} is realized if kk consecutive successes appear between the 2k2^{k}th and 2k+12^{k+1}th trial. Prove that if p≥1/2p \geq 1/2, then an infinite number of the events AkA_{k} occur with probability 1, whereas for p<1/2p < 1/2 with probability 1 a finite number of the events AkA_{k} occur.

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Problem 5.9

A continuous function φ(t)\varphi (t) with φ(0)=1\varphi (0) = 1 is a characteristic function if and only if it is nonnegative definite, i.e., if for each n≥1n \geq 1 and for each nn-tuple of real numbers t1,…,tnt_{1}, \ldots , t_{n} and complex numbers Z1,…,ZnZ_{1}, \ldots , Z_{n} it satisfies the

∑j=1v∑k=1vφ(tj−tk)ZjZ‾k≥0.(*) \sum _{j=1}^{v} \sum _{k=1}^{v} \varphi (t_{j}-t_{k}) Z_{j} \overline{Z}_{k} \geq 0. \tag {*}

Prove that (∗)(*) is necessary.

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Problem 5.10

Prove that the functions,

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(a)

e−i∣t∣e^{-i\left|t\right|},

(b)

1/(1−i∣t∣)1/(1-i\left|t\right|),

(c)

cos⁡t2\cos t^{2},

are not characteristic functions.

Problem 5.11

If φ(t)\varphi (t) is a characteristic function, prove that g(t)=eφ(t)−1g(t) = e^{\varphi (t)-1} is also a characteristic function.

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Problem 5.12

Show that, for a real characteristic function φ(t)\varphi (t), the following inequalities are valid:

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(a)
1−φ(nt)≤n2(1−φ(t)),n=0,1,2,… 1-\varphi (n t) \leq n^{2}(1-\varphi (t)), \qquad n = 0, 1, 2, \ldots
(b)
1+φ(2t)≥2[φ(t)]2. 1+\varphi (2 t) \geq 2[\varphi (t)]^{2}.
Problem 5.13

Let XX be the number of Bernoulli trials required until we have observed rr successive successes. Find the generating function of XX and E[X]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right].

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Problem 5.14

Let MnM_{n} be the maximum number of consecutive successes (the maximum length of a run) observed in nn Bernoulli trials. If

Pn,r=P(Mn≤r), P_{n,r} = \mathbb {P}\left(M_{n} \leq r\right),

show that

Pn,r=1−p1,r−p2,r−⋯−pn,r, P_{n,r} = 1-p_{1,r}-p_{2,r}-\cdots -p_{n,r},

where pn,rp_{n,r} was defined in the preceding problem (Problem 5.13, the number of Bernoulli trials required until rr successive successes are observed), and therefore, the generating function of pn,rp_{n,r} is

∑n=r∞Pn,rtn=1−P(t)1−t=1−prtr1−t+prqtr+1. \sum _{n=r}^{\infty } P_{n,r} t^{n} = \frac{1-P(t)}{1-t} = \frac{1-p^{r} t^{r}}{1-t+p^{r} q t^{r+1}}.

Also, show that

E[M]=log⁡n−log⁡p+O(1), \mathbb {E}\left[M\right] = \frac{\log n}{-\log p}+O(1), Var⁡[M]=O(1). \operatorname {Var}\left[M\right] = O(1).
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Problem 5.15

Find the distributions with characteristic functions,

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(a)

cos⁡t\cos t,

(b)

cos⁡2t\cos^{2} t,

(c)

∑k=0∞pkcos⁡kt\sum_{k=0}^{\infty } p_{k} \cos k t where pk≥0p_{k} \geq 0, ∑pk=1\sum p_{k} = 1.

Problem 5.16

Find the discrete distributions with generating functions,

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(a)

18(1+s)3\frac{1}{8}(1+s)^{3},

(b)

12(1−12s)−1\frac{1}{2}(1-\frac{1}{2} s)^{-1},

(c)

e(s−1)e^{(s-1)},

(d)

(14s+34)100(\frac{1}{4} s+\frac{3}{4})^{100}.

Problem 5.17

Using the Kolmogorov inequality: for independent X1,…,XnX_{1}, \ldots , X_{n}, let Sk=X1+⋯+XkS_{k} = X_{1}+\cdots +X_{k} with E[Sk]=mk\mathbb {E}\left[S_{k}\right] = m_{k}, Var⁡[Sk]=sk2\operatorname {Var}\left[S_{k}\right] = s_{k}^{2} (k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \ldots); then for every ε>0\varepsilon > 0,

P(∣Sk−mk∣<εsn, k=1,2,…,n)≥1−1ε2, \mathbb {P}\left(\left|S_{k}-m_{k}\right| < \varepsilon s_{n}, \, k = 1, 2, \ldots , n\right) \geq 1-\frac{1}{\varepsilon ^{2}},

show that if the series

∑k=1∞Var⁡[Xk]/k2<∞, \sum _{k=1}^{\infty } \operatorname {Var}\left[X_{k}\right]/k^{2} < \infty ,

then the SLLN holds, i.e.,

1n∑k=1n[Xk−E[Xk]]→w.p.10. \frac{1}{n} \sum _{k=1}^{n} [X_{k}-\mathbb {E}\left[X_{k}\right]] \xrightarrow {\text{w.p.1}} 0.
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Problem 5.18

The probability that, in each play of a game, the player receives 2k2^{k} dollars is

pk=12kk(k+1),k=1,2,…,(1) p_{k} = \frac{1}{2^{k} k(k+1)}, \qquad k = 1, 2, \ldots , \tag {1}

and that he receives 0 dollars is p0=1−(p1+p2+⋯ )p_{0} = 1-(p_{1}+p_{2}+\cdots ). So, the expected (average) gain in each game is

μ=∑k=1∞2kpk=∑k=1∞1k(k+1)=(1−12)+(12−13)+(13−14)+⋯=1. \mu = \sum _{k=1}^{\infty } 2^{k} p_{k} = \sum _{k=1}^{\infty } \frac{1}{k(k+1)} = \left(1-\frac{1}{2}\right)+\left(\frac{1}{2}-\frac{1}{3}\right)+\left(\frac{1}{3}-\frac{1}{4}\right)+\cdots = 1.

If, in each game, the player pays a 1-dollar fee, the net profit of the player after nn games is equal to

∑k=1nXk−n=Sn−n,withE[Sn−n]=0, \sum _{k=1}^{n} X_{k}-n = S_{n}-n, \qquad \text{with} \qquad \mathbb {E}\left[S_{n}-n\right] = 0,

i.e., the game is fair (XkX_{k} is a random variable with distribution (1)). For every ε>0\varepsilon > 0, however, the probability that, in nn games, the player will lose more than (1−ε)n/log⁡2n(1-\varepsilon ) n/\log_{2} n dollars, approaches 1, i.e., it can be proved (truncating the random variables XkX_{k}, see Feller (1957) or Gnedenko (1962)) that

lim⁡n→∞P(Sn−n<(1−ε)nlog⁡2n)=1. \lim _{n \rightarrow \infty } \mathbb {P}\left(S_{n}-n < \frac{(1-\varepsilon ) n}{\log _{2} n}\right) = 1.
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Problem 5.19

In a sequence {Xn,n≥1}\left\{ X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\} of Bernoulli random variables, suppose that

Yn=0ifXnXn+1=1  or  Xn=0  and  Xn+1=0, Y_{n} = 0 \quad \text{if} \quad X_{n} X_{n+1} = 1 \; \text{or} \; X_{n} = 0 \; \text{and} \; X_{n+1} = 0, Yn=1ifXn=1  or  Xn+1=1. Y_{n} = 1 \quad \text{if} \quad X_{n} = 1 \; \text{or} \; X_{n+1} = 1.

Find E[Zn]\mathbb {E}\left[Z_{n}\right] and Var⁡[Zn]\operatorname {Var}\left[Z_{n}\right] where Zn=∑i=1nYiZ_{n} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} Y_{i}.

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Problem 5.20

We randomly choose two numbers in (0,1)(0,1). What is the probability pp that their sum be smaller than 1 and their product smaller than 3/16?

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Problem 5.21

A bus on line AA arrives at a bus station every 4 minutes and a bus on line BB every 6 minutes. The time interval between an arrival of a bus for line AA and a bus for line BB is uniformly distributed between 0 and 4 minutes. Find the probability:

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(a)

that the first bus that arrives will be for line AA;

(b)

that a bus will arrive within 2 minutes (for line AA or BB).

Problem 5.22

NN stars are randomly scattered, independently of each other, in a sphere of radius RR.

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(a)

What is the probability that the star nearest to the center is at a distance at least rr?

(b)

Find the limit of the probability in (a) if

R→∞andN/R3→4πλ/3. R \rightarrow \infty \qquad \text{and} \qquad N/R^{3} \rightarrow 4 \pi \lambda /3.
Problem 5.23

A satellite moving on an orbit between two parallels 60∘60^{\circ } north and 60∘60^{\circ } south (latitude) is equally likely to land at any point between the two parallels. What is the probability pp that the satellite will land in the north above 30∘30^{\circ }?

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Problem 5.24

In the equation λ3+3Xλ+Y=0\lambda^{3}+3 X \lambda +Y = 0, the coefficients X,YX, Y are uniformly distributed in the rectangle ∣X∣≤a\left|X\right| \leq a, ∣Y∣≤b\left|Y\right| \leq b. What is the probability pp that the equation has real roots?

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Problem 5.25

Let Pk,nP_{k,n} denote the probability of kk successes in nn independent Bernoulli trials. By using the generating function Gn(t)G_{n}(t) of Pn,kP_{n,k} (k=0,1,2,…k = 0, 1, 2, \ldots), deduce the binomial distribution.

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Problem 5.26

AA and BB play the following game. They flip a coin, if the outcome is a head AA gets 1 dollar from BB, otherwise AA pays 1 dollar to BB. Initially, each of them has 3 dollars. The game terminates when either AA or BB loses all his money. What is the probability pnp_{n} that nn flips are needed?

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Problem 5.27

Let Yn=max⁡{X1,…,Xn}Y_{n} = \max \left\{ X_{1}, \ldots , X_{n}\right\} where X1,…,XnX_{1}, \ldots , X_{n} are independent and identically distributed random variables with a uniform distribution on (0,1)(0,1). Show that the distribution of

Zn=n(1−Yn) Z_{n} = n(1-Y_{n})

converges (as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty) to the exponential distribution with distribution function F(z)=1−e−zF(z) = 1-e^{-z}.

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Problem 5.28

A discrete random variable XnX_{n} that appears in the theory of extremes has the distribution function

Fn(n)=1−(n)r(n+nx)r,1≤r≤n, F_{n}(n) = 1-\frac{(n)_{r}}{(n+n x)_{r}}, \qquad 1 \leq r \leq n,

and XnX_{n} takes the values 1/n,2/n,…1/n, 2/n, \ldots. Show that the sequence {Xn}\left\{ X_{n}\right\} converges in law to a continuous distribution with distribution function

F(x)={0,x≤0,1−(1+x)−r,x>0. F(x) = \begin{cases} 0, & x \leq 0, \\ 1-(1+x)^{-r}, & x > 0. \end{cases}
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Problem 5.29

If Xn→PXX_{n} \xrightarrow {P} X and E[(Xn−Yn)2]→0\mathbb {E}\left[(X_{n}-Y_{n})^{2}\right] \rightarrow 0, show that the sequence {Yn}\left\{ Y_{n}\right\} also converges to XX in probability.

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