Markov Processes. Discrete and Continuous Time
[40/0%]Prove that definition (1) is equivalent to the following: for each and any the following equality holds
Definition 1: a process adapted to the filtration is called Markov (with respect to this filtration and the measure ) if for each and any event
Let be a Markov process, . Explain why , where , is also a Markov process. In particular, if is a Markov process, then for any the process is Markov. Is the converse true?
Let be a Markov process taking values, for each , in a measurable space . Let be a measurable space and . Prove that if is a one-to-one mapping for each , then is also a Markov process. Give an example showing that if the condition that the mapping be one-to-one is dropped, this assertion may fail.
Let be a Markov process with values in . Set , where is the integer part of a number. Can one assert that the process is Markov?
(compare with Exercise 3). Let be an -dimensional Brownian motion and the Bessel process, i.e., the radial part of the process . Is the process Markov? Note that for .
Let and be real Markov processes. Are the processes and Markov? What can be said about the special case where , with a deterministic function?
Let be a real Markov process. Set for , i.e., consider the continuous polygonal line on with vertices . Is the process Markov? Is the process , where is the integer part of a number, Markov?
Let be independent identically distributed random variables taking the values 1 and -1 with probability each. Set , , and . Prove that the process is not Markov.
Give an example of a martingale that is not a Markov process. Construct an example of a real Markov process with for all that is not a martingale.
Let be independent variables, where are uniformly distributed on and is a real random variable with distribution function . Set if , and if . Is a homogeneous Markov process?
Is it true that a real Gaussian process is Markov if condition (12) holds only for the function ?
Theorem 2. A process taking, for each , values in a Borel space is Markov if and only if it has the following property: for any and all ( and all in ), and for an arbitrary bounded -measurable function
Prove that a real Gaussian process , , is Markov if and only if for any the following equality holds
where . Is fractional Brownian motion a Markov process?
Is the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (Definition 13 of Chapter III) a homogeneous Markov process?
Definition 13 of Chapter III. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameters is the process given by the formula
where is a standard Brownian motion.
Let , and let be independent of the Poisson process with intensity . Let the process change its value to the value of the opposite sign at the jump points of the Poisson process. Is the process , called the telegraph signal, Markov? Draw the graph of a sample path of this process.
For let , where is a Wiener process. Prove that the process is a process with independent increments (hence Markov, by Theorem 3).
Theorem 3. Let be a process with independent increments taking values in , . Then is a Markov process (with respect to the natural filtration).
Let be a Markov process. For define the process . Will be a Markov process? Must the process be a homogeneous process if is one?
Prove that the Brownian bridge (see the definition in of Chapter V) is an inhomogeneous Markov process.
Definition from of Chapter V: is the Brownian bridge, defined as the process , where is a Wiener process on the interval .
Let be a stochastic process on , and
Prove that the processes and can only be Markov simultaneously. Prove that if is a Markov process, then this process is necessarily homogeneous. How are the transition functions of the Markov processes and related?
Let be a homogeneous Markov process with values (for each ) in some Polish space . Prove that there exist measurable functions (i.e. ) and uniformly distributed random variables independent of for , such that a.s. for all .
Let a homogeneous Markov process take values in , and let its transition function be such that for all , . Prove that then this process has independent increments.
Prove that for the standard Poisson process with intensity the "strong law of large numbers" holds: a.s. as .
("waiting time paradox") Let the Poisson process be constructed according to Theorem 2 of Chapter II from a sequence of independent exponential (with parameter ) random variables.
Theorem 2 of Chapter II (explicit construction of the Poisson process). Let be independent random variables having the exponential distribution with density
where is a positive parameter, . Then the corresponding renewal process (I.10) is a Poisson process with intensity .
Formula (I.10) (Example 2 of Chapter I). For a sequence of independent identically distributed nondegenerate nonnegative random variables, the renewal process is defined by the formula
For fixed find the distribution of the random variable , i.e. of the "overshoot" over the level of the accumulating partial sums . The following amusing question is related to this problem. Let be the random intervals between the arrival times of buses at a given stop. The question is: how long will you wait for the nearest bus to appear if you happen to be at the stop at time ?
(continuation of Exercise 22) Prove that for each fixed the random variables introduced above form a sequence of independent exponentially distributed random variables with parameter .
Define for all , where appears in (85).
Suppose that on some probability space we are given a sequence of random variables such that for , where ,
Definition 11. The random point measure is given by the formula
where the sequence is described above, and is the Dirac measure.
Will the function be a measure on ? Can a Poisson process with a locally finite intensity measure be represented in the form (86)?
Definition 12. The random point process , where , is introduced for as follows:
where the random point measure is given by formula (85).
(compare with Theorem 14 of Chapter V). Prove that the random point process (86) is a Poisson process if has independent increments and is stochastically continuous on (see (I.56)).
Theorem 14 of Chapter V (Doob). Let a process take values in for each and have independent increments. If the sample paths of the process are continuous a.s., then the process is Gaussian. Moreover, for
where and are continuous functions.
Suppose that on some probability space we are given a sequence of random variables such that for , where ,
Definition 11. The random point measure is given by the formula
where the sequence is described above, and is the Dirac measure.
Definition 12. The random point process , where , is introduced for as follows:
where the random point measure is given by formula (85).
Formula (I.56): a process with values in a metric space is stochastically continuous on if for each and any
By Theorem 3, the random variables , form a Markov chain if the summands are independent real random variables.
Theorem 3. Let be a process with independent increments taking values in , . Then is a Markov process (with respect to the natural filtration).
Will the process (86) be Markov if is an arbitrary Markov chain satisfying condition (84)?
Suppose that on some probability space we are given a sequence of random variables such that for , where ,
Definition 11. The random point measure is given by the formula
where the sequence is described above, and is the Dirac measure.
Definition 12. The random point process , where , is introduced for as follows:
where the random point measure is given by formula (85).
Definition 13. Suppose that on some probability space we are given a Poisson process with intensity and a process independent of it, with a.s. nondecreasing, finite and right-continuous sample paths starting from zero. The Cox process is the process , where .
Is the Cox process Markov?
Find the covariance function of the process (87) if the sequence defines a Poisson point process with intensity .
Suppose that on some probability space we are given a sequence of random variables such that for , where ,
Definition 14. We say that a stochastic process is "shot noise" if
where the bounded Borel function has compact support, and the random variables () satisfy condition (84) (which ensures that the series (87) converges for each on the set of probability one).
Is it sufficient, for the convergence of the series (87) with probability one for each , to require that the bounded function be Lebesgue integrable?
Suppose that on some probability space we are given a sequence of random variables such that for , where ,
Suppose that, besides the sequence of random variables satisfying condition (84), on the same probability space there is some sequence of real random variables "attached" to the times .
Definition 15. A marked random point process is a process (indexed by sets ) of the following form
The function
is called the counting function.
Draw the graph of the sample path , for fixed .
Let be a Poisson process with mean measure , determined by the sequence that specifies the jump points of . Let be a sequence of independent identically distributed real random variables with . Take such that . Prove that the "thinned process" , defined by formula (88), is a Poisson process with mean measure .
Definition 11. The random point measure is given by the formula
where the sequence is described above, and is the Dirac measure.
Definition 12. The random point process , where , is introduced for as follows:
where the random point measure is given by formula (85).
Formula (88):
where the process is given by formula (86).
Let be a homogeneous standard (i.e., as ) Markov chain with a finite or countable state space and transition probabilities , considered in its separable modification, and let be its infinitesimal matrix:
Let for a state . Then the probability that the process stays in this state for a positive time is zero, i.e., having entered this state, the process leaves it instantly.
Let be the infinitesimal matrix of a homogeneous Markov chain, and .
Definition 10. A chain is called conservative if all entries of the infinitesimal matrix are finite and, moreover, for every
Let be a finite or countable set, and let be a conservative Markov chain with infinitesimal matrix , where , . Let us construct recursively sequences of random variables and with values in and respectively, and such that has an arbitrary distribution,
and for let
Prove that on a suitable probability space there exist the sequences of random variables and described above, satisfying conditions (92) and (93). Moreover, a.s. Can one assert that always a.s.? Prove that the latter certainly holds if .
Let a.s. Using the random variables appearing in Exercise 32 , and assuming that condition (84) is satisfied, let us introduce the process by setting
(for such that for some , let , .
Condition (84): for , where ,
Prove that is a Markov process having the same finite-dimensional distributions as the process that determined the matrix . How should the above construction be modified if some of the quantities are equal to zero?
Let be a homogeneous standard (i.e., as ) Markov chain with a finite or countable state space and transition probabilities , and let be its infinitesimal matrix:
Prove that if and only if as uniformly in (or, equivalently, as uniformly in ).
Give an example of transition probabilities for which the standardness condition (49) does not hold.
Definition 9. A homogeneous Markov chain (or the semigroup generated by it) is called standard if as , i.e., for all
where, as usual, is the Kronecker symbol.
Give an example where property (49) holds but (89) does not.
Condition (89), where are the entries of the infinitesimal matrix :
Definition 9. A homogeneous Markov chain (or the semigroup generated by it) is called standard if as , i.e., for all
where, as usual, is the Kronecker symbol.
Let the state space consist of a finite number of elements, and let the transition matrix be standard. Prove that then this matrix admits the following representation:
where the matrix satisfies the condition
Conversely, if conditions (95) hold for a matrix , then formula (94) defines a standard matrix of transition probabilities.
The backward system of Kolmogorov equations for the transition probabilities of a homogeneous Markov chain with infinitesimal matrix has the form
and the forward system has the form
Equations (65) and (72) can be understood either in the narrow sense (i.e., that all are continuous for and the equations under study hold for all ), or in the broad sense, i.e., that are absolutely continuous and the equations under consideration hold for almost all (with respect to Lebesgue measure) .
Prove that for the systems of Kolmogorov equations both interpretations given above (in the narrow and in the broad sense) are equivalent. For the forward equations this exercise should be classed among the very difficult ones.
Let be a matrix with real entries, where is countable, such that
The backward and forward systems of Kolmogorov equations for the matrices , , have, respectively, the form
and
(see also Exercise 34). Prove that if , then both systems of Kolmogorov equations have a unique solution.
Definition 17. A homogeneous Markov process with state space is called a birth-and-death process if its infinitesimal matrix has the following form
where and . If for all , one speaks of a birth process, and if , of a death process.
The backward and forward systems of Kolmogorov equations for the matrices , , have, respectively, the form
and
Solutions are sought in the class of semistochastic matrices , for which . If it turns out that for all , then one speaks of a proper solution.
Suppose a birth process is such that . Prove that then the system of forward Kolmogorov equations has a unique solution, while the system of backward equations has infinitely many. Prove that if for a death process, then the system of backward equations has a unique solution, while the system of forward equations has infinitely many, exactly one of which is proper.
Definition 19. Let a probability space and -algebras be given. The -algebra is said to split and if
(compare with (1)). Show that if splits and , then splits and (as before, ). Check that condition (99) is equivalent to
Definition 1: a process adapted to the filtration is called Markov (with respect to this filtration and the measure ) if for each and any event
Let -algebras be given, and suppose that for each the -algebra splits and . Verify that then splits and , and that if property (99) holds, then . In particular, (83) involves the minimal splitting algebra, since .
Relation (83): for each and any the following equality holds