Chapter I

Stochastic Processes. Distributions of Stochastic Processes

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Problem I.1

Using the Kolmogorov theorem (Theorem 4), obtain a special case of the Lomnicki-Ulam theorem (Theorem 2) for a family of Borel spaces.

Theorem 4 (Kolmogorov). Let (St,Bt)t∈T(S_{t}, \mathscr {B}_{t})_{t \in T} be a family of Borel spaces (i.e., measurable spaces isomorphic to a Borel subset of the interval [0,1][0,1] with its Borel σ\sigma-algebra). Suppose that on the spaces (St1,…,tn,Bt1,…,tn)(S_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}, \mathscr {B}_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}), where n∈Nn \in \mathbb {N} and the points t1,…,tn∈Tt_{1}, \ldots , t_{n} \in T are pairwise distinct, measures Pt1,…,tnP_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}} are given that satisfy, for every permutation (i1,…,in)(i_{1}, \ldots , i_{n}) of the tuple (1,…,n)(1, \ldots , n), the symmetry condition Pt1,…,tn(Bt1×⋯×Btn)=Pti1,…,tin(Bti1×⋯×Btin)P_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}\left(B_{t_{1}} \times \cdots \times B_{t_{n}}\right) = P_{t_{i_{1}}, \ldots , t_{i_{n}}}\left(B_{t_{i_{1}}} \times \cdots \times B_{t_{i_{n}}}\right) and the consistency condition Pt1,…,tn(Bt1×⋯×Btn−1×Stn)=Pt1,…,tn−1(Bt1×⋯×Btn−1)P_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}\left(B_{t_{1}} \times \cdots \times B_{t_{n - 1}} \times S_{t_{n}}\right) = P_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n - 1}}\left(B_{t_{1}} \times \cdots \times B_{t_{n - 1}}\right). Then there exist a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) and a random function X={X(t),t∈T}X = \left\{ X(t), t \in T\right\} defined on it such that the finite-dimensional distributions of XX are the measures Pt1,…,tnP_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}.

Theorem 2 (Lomnicki-Ulam). Let (St,Bt)t∈T(S_{t}, \mathscr {B}_{t})_{t \in T} be an arbitrary family of measurable spaces, and suppose that for every t∈Tt \in T a measure QtQ_{t} is given on (St,Bt)(S_{t}, \mathscr {B}_{t}). Then there exist a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) and a family of independent random elements Xt:Ω→St,Xt∈F∣BtX_{t}: \Omega \rightarrow S_{t}, X_{t} \in \mathscr {F} \mid \mathscr {B}_{t}, such that PXt=Qt\mathbb {P}_{X_{t}} = Q_{t} on Bt\mathscr {B}_{t} for each t∈Tt \in T.

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Problem I.2

Verify that the variables a1(ω),a2(ω),…a_{1}(\omega ), a_{2}(\omega ), \ldots, introduced in (50), form a sequence of independent random variables on the indicated probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}), and moreover one such that

P(ak=1)=P(ak=0)=1/2,k∈N(51) \mathbb {P}\left(a_{k} = 1\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(a_{k} = 0\right) = 1 / 2, \quad k \in \mathbb {N} \tag {51}

Let Ω=[0,1],F=B([0,1])\Omega = [0,1], \mathscr {F} = \mathscr {B}([0,1]) and P=\mathbb {P} = mes (Lebesgue measure). Consider the binary expansion of the number ω∈Ω\omega \in \Omega :

ω=∑k=1∞ak(ω)2−k(50) \omega = \sum _{k = 1}^{\infty } a_{k}(\omega ) 2^{-k} \tag {50}

where the coefficients ak(ω)a_{k}(\omega ) are equal to 0 or 1. Representation (50) is not unique. It is assumed that in the non-unique cases only the representations with infinitely many zeros among the coefficients ak(ω)a_{k}(\omega ) are considered.

Prove that if on some probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) there is a sequence of independent random variables satisfying condition (51), then the random variable ξ(ω)=∑k=1∞ak(ω)2−k\xi (\omega ) = \sum_{k = 1}^{\infty } a_{k}(\omega ) 2^{-k} has the uniform distribution on the interval [0,1][0,1].

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Problem I.3

Prove that if FF is some distribution function and UU is a random variable uniformly distributed on the interval [0,1][0,1] (defined on some probability space), then X(ω)=Finv (U(ω))X(\omega ) = F^{\text{inv }}(U(\omega )) is a random variable with distribution function FF (the generalized inverse function Finv⁡(x)=inf⁡{y:F(y)⩾x},x∈[0,1]F^{\operatorname {inv}}(x) = \inf \left\{ y: F(y) \geqslant x\right\} , x \in [0,1]; if F(y)<1F(y) < 1 for all y∈Ry \in \mathbb {R}, then Finv (1):=+∞F^{\text{inv }}(1): = +\infty; if F(y)>0F(y) > 0 for all y∈Ry \in \mathbb {R}, then Finv⁡(0):=−∞F^{\operatorname {inv}}(0): = -\infty).

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Problem I.4

(compare with Theorem 6). Give an example of a family of σ\sigma-algebras Aλ,λ∈Λ\mathscr {A}_{\lambda }, \lambda \in \Lambda, consisting of some subsets of Ω\Omega, such that ⋃λ∈ΛAλ\bigcup_{\lambda \in \Lambda } \mathscr {A}_{\lambda } is not a σ\sigma-algebra.

Theorem 6. Let TT be an infinite set and N(T)N(T) the collection of countable subsets of TT. Then for the σ\sigma-algebra BT\mathscr {B}_{T} the representations BT=σ{CT}\mathscr {B}_{T} = \sigma \left\{ \mathscr {C}_{T}\right\} and BT=⋃U∈N(T)BT,U\mathscr {B}_{T} = \bigcup_{U \in N(T)} \mathscr {B}_{T, U} hold, where CT\mathscr {C}_{T} is the algebra of cylinder sets (the union of BT,J\mathscr {B}_{T, J} over all finite J⊂TJ \subset T), and BT,U=πT,U−1BU\mathscr {B}_{T, U} = \pi_{T, U}^{-1} \mathscr {B}_{U} is the σ\sigma-algebra of sets of the space STS_{T} that depend only on the coordinates from UU (the preimage of BU\mathscr {B}_{U} under the coordinate projection πT,U:ST→SU\pi_{T, U}: S_{T} \rightarrow S_{U}). In other words, whether a function y∈STy \in S_{T} belongs to any set from BT\mathscr {B}_{T} is determined only by its values on some countable subset of TT.

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Problem I.5

Obtain a generalization of Lemma 7 to random elements with values in a Borel space.

Lemma 7. Let the probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) be complete, and let σ\sigma-algebra A⊂F\mathscr {A} \subset \mathscr {F}. A real random variable Y(ω)Y(\omega ) is A‾\overline{\mathscr {A}}-measurable (here A‾=σ{A,N}\overline{\mathscr {A}} = \sigma \left\{ \mathscr {A}, \mathscr {N}\right\}, where N\mathscr {N} is the class of P\mathbb {P}-null sets) if and only if there exists an A\mathscr {A}-measurable real random variable Z(ω)Z(\omega ) such that Y=ZY = Z (P\mathbb {P}-a.e.), i.e., P(ω∈Ω:Y(ω)≠Z(ω))=0\mathbb {P}\left(\omega \in \Omega : Y(\omega ) \neq Z(\omega )\right) = 0.

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Problem I.6

Let (St,Bt)t∈T(\mathrm{S}_{t}, \mathscr {B}_{t})_{t \in T} be a family of measurable spaces, and let ST=∏t∈TSt\mathrm{S}_{T} = \prod_{t \in T} \mathrm{S}_{t} be their Cartesian product, consisting of the functions y=y(t)y = y(t) defined on TT and such that y(t)∈Sty(t) \in \mathrm{S}_{t} for t∈Tt \in T.

Definition 6. The σ\sigma-algebra BT\mathscr {B}_{T} in the space ST\mathrm{S}_{T} generated by the collection of elementary cylinders, i.e., sets of the form CT(t,Bt)={y∈ST:y(t)∈Bt}C_{T}(t, B_{t}) = \left\{ y \in \mathrm{S}_{T}: y(t) \in B_{t}\right\}, where Bt∈BtB_{t} \in \mathscr {B}_{t}, t∈Tt \in T, is called the cylindrical σ\sigma-algebra.

Every random function X={X(t),t∈T}X = \left\{ X(t), t \in T\right\}, regarded as a random element ω↦X(⋅,ω)\omega \mapsto X(\cdot , \omega ) with values in ST\mathrm{S}_{T}, induces a probability distribution PX\mathbb {P}_{X} on (ST,BT)(\mathrm{S}_{T}, \mathscr {B}_{T}).

Let the set GG consist of the functions g:Rd→Rg: \mathbb {R}^{d} \rightarrow \mathbb {R} that are nondecreasing in each argument. Show that G∉BT(St=R,t∈T=Rd)G \notin \mathscr {B}_{T}\left(\mathrm{S}_{t} = \mathbb {R}, t \in T = \mathbb {R}^{d}\right). Nevertheless, find PX(G)\mathbb {P}_{X}\left(G\right), where X={Xt=ξ(1+f(t)η),t∈Rd},f:Rd→RX = \left\{ X_{t} = \xi (1+f(t) \eta ), t \in \mathbb {R}^{d}\right\} , f: \mathbb {R}^{d} \rightarrow \mathbb {R} is a function nonincreasing in each variable, and ξ\xi and η\eta are independent variables uniformly distributed on the interval [−1,2][-1,2].

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Problem I.7

(compare with Exercise 2). Prove that on (Ω,F,P)=([0,1],B([0,1]),P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) = ([0,1], \mathscr {B}([0,1]), \mathbb {P}), where P\mathbb {P} is Lebesgue measure, it is impossible to construct a (continuum) family {Xt,t∈R}\left\{ X_{t}, t \in \mathbb {R}\right\} of independent Bernoulli variables, i.e., random variables Xt,t∈RX_{t}, t \in \mathbb {R}, such that

P(Xt=0)=P(Xt=1)=1/2 for each t.  \mathbb {P}\left(X_{t} = 0\right) = \mathbb {P}\left(X_{t} = 1\right) = 1 / 2 \text{ for each } t \text{. }
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Problem I.8

Prove that on no probability space is it possible to define a family of independent identically distributed real nondegenerate random variables X(t,ω),t∈R,ω∈ΩX(t, \omega ), t \in \mathbb {R}, \omega \in \Omega, in such a way that with probability 1 the sample paths X(⋅,ω)X(\cdot , \omega ) are continuous on R\mathbb {R}.

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Problem I.9

(compare with Theorem 4). Let C(R)C(\mathbb {R}) be the space of real functions continuous on R\mathbb {R}. On the cylinder sets of the form DJ={x∈C(R):x(t)∈Bt,t∈J}D_{J} = \left\{ x \in C(\mathbb {R}): x(t) \in B_{t}, t \in J\right\}, where Bt∈B(R),t∈JB_{t} \in \mathscr {B}(\mathbb {R}), t \in J and J∈F(R)J \in F(\mathbb {R}) (F(R)F(\mathbb {R}) is the collection of finite subsets of R\mathbb {R}), define the functions

QJ(DJ):=∏t∈JQ0(Bt) \mathbb {Q}_{J}\left(D_{J}\right): = \prod _{t \in J} \mathbb {Q}_{0}\left(B_{t}\right)

here Q0\mathbb {Q}_{0} is some measure on B(R)\mathscr {B}(\mathbb {R}). Is it possible to introduce a measure P\mathbb {P} on the σ\sigma-algebra of cylinder sets of the space C(R)C(\mathbb {R}) such that P(DJ)=QJ(DJ)\mathbb {P}\left(D_{J}\right) = \mathbb {Q}_{J}\left(D_{J}\right) for all J∈F(R)J \in F(\mathbb {R}) and all cylinders DJD_{J} introduced above?

Theorem 4 (Kolmogorov). Let (St,Bt)t∈T(S_{t}, \mathscr {B}_{t})_{t \in T} be a family of Borel spaces (i.e., measurable spaces isomorphic to a Borel subset of the interval [0,1][0,1] with its Borel σ\sigma-algebra). Suppose that on the spaces (St1,…,tn,Bt1,…,tn)(S_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}, \mathscr {B}_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}), where n∈Nn \in \mathbb {N} and the points t1,…,tn∈Tt_{1}, \ldots , t_{n} \in T are pairwise distinct, measures Pt1,…,tnP_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}} are given that satisfy, for every permutation (i1,…,in)(i_{1}, \ldots , i_{n}) of the tuple (1,…,n)(1, \ldots , n), the symmetry condition Pt1,…,tn(Bt1×⋯×Btn)=Pti1,…,tin(Bti1×⋯×Btin)P_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}\left(B_{t_{1}} \times \cdots \times B_{t_{n}}\right) = P_{t_{i_{1}}, \ldots , t_{i_{n}}}\left(B_{t_{i_{1}}} \times \cdots \times B_{t_{i_{n}}}\right) and the consistency condition Pt1,…,tn(Bt1×⋯×Btn−1×Stn)=Pt1,…,tn−1(Bt1×⋯×Btn−1)P_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}\left(B_{t_{1}} \times \cdots \times B_{t_{n - 1}} \times S_{t_{n}}\right) = P_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n - 1}}\left(B_{t_{1}} \times \cdots \times B_{t_{n - 1}}\right). Then there exist a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) and a random function X={X(t),t∈T}X = \left\{ X(t), t \in T\right\} defined on it such that the finite-dimensional distributions of XX are the measures Pt1,…,tnP_{t_{1}, \ldots , t_{n}}.

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Problem I.10

What do the sample paths of process (11) look like?

Example 3. On some probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) consider two sequences of nonnegative random variables {ξj,j∈N}\left\{ \xi_{j}, j \in \mathbb {N}\right\} and {ηj,j∈N}\left\{ \eta_{j}, j \in \mathbb {N}\right\} such that {ξj,ηj,j∈N}\left\{ \xi_{j}, \eta_{j}, j \in \mathbb {N}\right\} are jointly independent and Law⁡(ξj)=Law⁡(ξ1)\operatorname {Law}\left(\xi_{j}\right) = \operatorname {Law}\left(\xi_{1}\right), Law⁡(ηj)=Law⁡(η1)\operatorname {Law}\left(\eta_{j}\right) = \operatorname {Law}\left(\eta_{1}\right), j∈Nj \in \mathbb {N}. For positive constants y0y_{0} and cc define the process

Yt(ω)=y0+ct−∑j=1Xt(ω)ηj(ω),t⩾0,(11) Y_{t}(\omega ) = y_{0}+c t-\sum _{j = 1}^{X_{t}(\omega )} \eta _{j}(\omega ), \quad t \geqslant 0, \tag {11}

where Xt(ω)X_{t}(\omega ) is given by formula (10).

Example 2. For a sequence ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots of independent identically distributed nondegenerate nonnegative random variables, the renewal process is defined by the formula

X0(ω)=0,Xt(ω)=sup⁡{n:∑j⩽nξj(ω)⩽t},t>0.(10) X_{0}(\omega ) = 0, \quad X_{t}(\omega ) = \sup \left\{ n: \sum _{j \leqslant n} \xi _{j}(\omega ) \leqslant t\right\} , \quad t > 0. \tag {10}

Throughout, the sum over the empty set is taken to be zero, so Xt(ω)=0X_{t}(\omega ) = 0 if ξ1(ω)>t\xi_{1}(\omega ) > t.

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Problem I.11

Let m=1m = 1 in definition (13), i.e., {ζj}\left\{ \zeta_{j}\right\} are independent identically distributed scalar random variables, and let d=1d = 1.

Example 5. Let {ζj,j∈Zd}\left\{ \zeta_{j}, j \in \mathbb {Z}^{d}\right\} be a random field formed by independent identically distributed vectors with values in Rm\mathbb {R}^{m}. Let μ\mu be a σ\sigma-finite measure on B(Rd)\mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{d}\right), d⩾1d \geqslant 1. Define the partial-sum process

Sn(B,ω)=∑j∈Zdζj(ω)μ(nB∩Cj),B∈B([0,1]d),n∈N,(13) S_{n}(B, \omega ) = \sum _{j \in \mathbb {Z}^{d}} \zeta _{j}(\omega ) \mu (n B \cap C_{j}), \quad B \in \mathscr {B}\left([0,1]^{d}\right), \quad n \in \mathbb {N}, \tag {13}

where Cj=(j−1,j]=(j1−1,j1]×⋯×(jd−1,jd]C_{j} = (j-1, j] = \left(j_{1}-1, j_{1}\right] \times \cdots \times \left(j_{d}-1, j_{d}\right] is the unit cube with upper vertex at the point j∈Zdj \in \mathbb {Z}^{d}, nB={x=ny,y∈B}n B = \left\{ x = n y, y \in B\right\}.

Set

Xn(t,ω)=1nSn([0,t],ω),t∈[0,1] X_{n}(t, \omega ) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{n}} S_{n}([0, t], \omega ), \quad t \in [0,1]

Sketch the graph of a sample path of this process in the following cases:

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(a)

μ\mu is Lebesgue measure on R\mathbb {R};

(b)

μ\mu is the counting measure, i.e.,

μ(B)=∑j∈Z1B(j),B⊂R \mu (B) = \sum _{j \in \mathbb {Z}} \mathbf{1}_{B}(j), \quad B \subset \mathbb {R}
Problem I.12

Let m=1m = 1 in definition (12).

Example 4. Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be independent identically distributed random vectors defined on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) and taking values in Rm\mathbb {R}^{m} (m⩾1m \geqslant 1). Introduce the empirical measures

Pn(B,ω)=1n∑j=1n1B(ξj(ω)),B∈B(Rm),n∈N.(12) \mathbb {P}_{n}\left(B, \omega \right) = \frac{1}{n} \sum _{j = 1}^{n} \mathbf{1}_{B}\left(\xi _{j}(\omega )\right), \quad B \in \mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{m}\right), \quad n \in \mathbb {N}. \tag {12}

Set

Fn∗(x,ω)=Pn((−∞,x],ω),x∈R F_{n}^{*}(x, \omega ) = \mathbb {P}_{n}\left((-\infty , x], \omega \right), \quad x \in \mathbb {R}

Sketch the graph of a sample path of the process Fn∗(x,ω)F_{n}^{*}(x, \omega ), which is customarily called the empirical distribution function. What is the difference between the case when the ξj\xi_{j} are uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1] and the case when the ξj\xi_{j} are Bernoulli variables with P(ξj=1)=p,P(ξj=0)=1−p,0<p<1?\mathbb {P}\left(\xi_{j} = 1\right) = p, \mathbb {P}\left(\xi_{j} = 0\right) = 1-p, 0 < p < 1 ?

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Problem I.13

Example 4. Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be independent identically distributed random vectors defined on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) and taking values in Rm\mathbb {R}^{m} (m⩾1m \geqslant 1). Introduce the empirical measures

Pn(B,ω)=1n∑j=1n1B(ξj(ω)),B∈B(Rm),n∈N.(12) \mathbb {P}_{n}\left(B, \omega \right) = \frac{1}{n} \sum _{j = 1}^{n} \mathbf{1}_{B}\left(\xi _{j}(\omega )\right), \quad B \in \mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{m}\right), \quad n \in \mathbb {N}. \tag {12}

Definition 15. A class of sets M⊂B(Rm)\mathscr {M} \subset \mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{m}\right) is called finitely approximable with respect to a measure Q\mathbb {Q} defined on B(Rm)\mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{m}\right) if for every ε>0\varepsilon > 0 one can find sets S1(ε),…,SN(ε)∈B(Rm)S_{1}^{(\varepsilon )}, \ldots , S_{N}^{(\varepsilon )} \in \mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{m}\right), where N=N(ε)N = N(\varepsilon ), such that for each B∈MB \in \mathscr {M} there exist Si(ε)S_{i}^{(\varepsilon )} and Sj(ε)S_{j}^{(\varepsilon )} with the properties Si(ε)⊂B⊂Sj(ε)S_{i}^{(\varepsilon )} \subset B \subset S_{j}^{(\varepsilon )} and Q(Sj(ε)\Si(ε))<ε\mathbb {Q}\left(S_{j}^{(\varepsilon )} \backslash S_{i}^{(\varepsilon )}\right) < \varepsilon.

Prove that the class M={(−∞,x],x∈Rm}\mathscr {M} = \left\{ (-\infty , x], x \in \mathbb {R}^{m}\right\}, i.e., the collection of sets of the form (−∞,x1]×⋯×(−∞,xm],(x1,…,xm)∈Rm\left(-\infty , x_{1}\right] \times \cdots \times \left(-\infty , x_{m}\right], \left(x_{1}, \ldots , x_{m}\right) \in \mathbb {R}^{m}, is finitely approximable with respect to any (probability) measure Q\mathbb {Q}. Thus the multidimensional version of the Glivenko-Cantelli theorem holds, on the a.s. uniform convergence as n→∞n \rightarrow \infty of the empirical distribution functions Fn∗(x,ω):=Pn((−∞,x],ω)F_{n}^{*}(x, \omega ): = \mathbb {P}_{n}\left((-\infty , x], \omega \right) to the distribution function Fξ1(x)F_{\xi_{1}}(x) :

sup⁡x∣Fn∗(x,ω)−Fξ1(x)∣→0 (P-a.s.).  \sup _{x}\left|F_{n}^{*}(x, \omega )-F_{\xi _{1}}(x)\right| \rightarrow 0 \text{ ($\mathbb {P}$-a.s.). }
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Problem I.14

Prove that if the measure Q=Pξ1\mathbb {Q} = \mathbb {P}_{\xi_{1}} is absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure in Rm\mathbb {R}^{m}, then statement (52) also holds for the class M\mathscr {M} that is the class of convex sets. (This statement, which follows from Exercise 13 when m=1m = 1, becomes nontrivial and no longer follows from it if m⩾2m \geqslant 2.)

Theorem 8 (see [3; p. 421]). Let M\mathscr {M} be a class of sets that is finitely approximable with respect to a measure Q\mathbb {Q}. Let Pn(B,ω)\mathbb {P}_{n}\left(B, \omega \right) be the process defined by formula (12), and let the corresponding vectors have the distribution law Pξ1=Q\mathbb {P}_{\xi_{1}} = \mathbb {Q}. Then

sup⁡B∈M∣Pn(B,ω)−Q(B)∣→0 as n→∞(52) \sup _{B \in \mathscr {M}}\left|\mathbb {P}_{n}\left(B, \omega \right)-\mathbb {Q}\left(B\right)\right| \rightarrow 0 \quad \text{ as } \quad n \rightarrow \infty \tag {52}

for all ω∈Ω~\omega \in \widetilde{\Omega }, where Ω\Ω~⊂Ω0\Omega \backslash \widetilde{\Omega } \subset \Omega_{0} and P(Ω0)=0\mathbb {P}\left(\Omega_{0}\right) = 0. In other words, if the probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) is complete, then the convergence in (52) holds almost surely.

Example 4. Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots be independent identically distributed random vectors defined on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) and taking values in Rm\mathbb {R}^{m} (m⩾1m \geqslant 1). Introduce the empirical measures

Pn(B,ω)=1n∑j=1n1B(ξj(ω)),B∈B(Rm),n∈N.(12) \mathbb {P}_{n}\left(B, \omega \right) = \frac{1}{n} \sum _{j = 1}^{n} \mathbf{1}_{B}\left(\xi _{j}(\omega )\right), \quad B \in \mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{m}\right), \quad n \in \mathbb {N}. \tag {12}

Definition 15. A class of sets M⊂B(Rm)\mathscr {M} \subset \mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{m}\right) is called finitely approximable with respect to a measure Q\mathbb {Q} defined on B(Rm)\mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{m}\right) if for every ε>0\varepsilon > 0 one can find sets S1(ε),…,SN(ε)∈B(Rm)S_{1}^{(\varepsilon )}, \ldots , S_{N}^{(\varepsilon )} \in \mathscr {B}\left(\mathbb {R}^{m}\right), where N=N(ε)N = N(\varepsilon ), such that for each B∈MB \in \mathscr {M} there exist Si(ε)S_{i}^{(\varepsilon )} and Sj(ε)S_{j}^{(\varepsilon )} with the properties Si(ε)⊂B⊂Sj(ε)S_{i}^{(\varepsilon )} \subset B \subset S_{j}^{(\varepsilon )} and Q(Sj(ε)\Si(ε))<ε\mathbb {Q}\left(S_{j}^{(\varepsilon )} \backslash S_{i}^{(\varepsilon )}\right) < \varepsilon.

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Problem I.15

Show that the statement contained in Exercise 14 may become false if the condition that Q\mathbb {Q} be absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure is dropped (for m⩾2m \geqslant 2 ).

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Problem I.16

Prove that property (53) holds if A\mathscr {A} is the class of rectangles of the form [a1,b1]×⋯×[ad,bd]⊂[0,1]d\left[a_{1}, b_{1}\right] \times \cdots \times \left[a_{d}, b_{d}\right] \subset [0,1]^{d}.

Let A⊂B([0,1]d),d⩾1\mathscr {A} \subset \mathscr {B}\left([0,1]^{d}\right), d \geqslant 1. For a function F:A→RF: \mathscr {A} \rightarrow \mathbb {R} denote

∥F∥A=sup⁡A∈A∣F(A)∣ \left\| F\right\| _{\mathscr {A}} = \sup _{A \in \mathscr {A}}\left|F(A)\right|

Set Fδ(A)=mes⁡(A(δ)),A∈A,δ>0F_{\delta }(A) = \operatorname {mes}\left(A^{(\delta )}\right), A \in \mathscr {A}, \delta > 0 and A(δ)={x∈Rd:ρ(x,∂A)<δ}A^{(\delta )} = \left\{ x \in \mathbb {R}^{d}: \rho (x, \partial A) < \delta \right\}, ρ(x,∂A)=inf⁡y∈∂Aρ(x,y),ρ\rho (x, \partial A) = \inf_{y \in \partial A} \rho (x, y), \rho is the Euclidean metric and mes is Lebesgue measure in Rd\mathbb {R}^{d}.

Property (53) of a class of sets A⊂B([0,1]d)\mathscr {A} \subset \mathscr {B}\left([0,1]^{d}\right) is the relation

∥Fδ∥A→0, as δ→0+(53) \left\| F_{\delta }\right\| _{\mathscr {A}} \rightarrow 0, \quad \text{ as } \quad \delta \rightarrow 0+ \tag {53}
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Problem I.17

Example 2. For a sequence ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_{1}, \xi_{2}, \ldots of independent identically distributed nondegenerate nonnegative random variables, the renewal process is defined by the formula

X0(ω)=0,Xt(ω)=sup⁡{n:∑j⩽nξj(ω)⩽t},t>0.(10) X_{0}(\omega ) = 0, \quad X_{t}(\omega ) = \sup \left\{ n: \sum _{j \leqslant n} \xi _{j}(\omega ) \leqslant t\right\} , \quad t > 0. \tag {10}

Throughout, the sum over the empty set is taken to be zero, so Xt(ω)=0X_{t}(\omega ) = 0 if ξ1(ω)>t\xi_{1}(\omega ) > t.

Define the renewal function u(t),t>0u(t), t > 0, as the mean number of renewals in the interval (0,t](0, t], i.e., u(t)=E[Xt]u(t) = \mathbb {E}\left[X_{t}\right].

Prove that u(t)<∞u(t) < \infty for all t>0t > 0.

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Problem I.18

Explain why the function Z(B,⋅)Z(B, \cdot ) defined according to (14) is, for each B∈B(S)B \in \mathscr {B}(\mathrm{S}), a random variable with values in the space (Z+,A)\left(\mathbb {Z}_{+}, \mathscr {A}\right), where Z+={0,1,…}={0}∪N,A\mathbb {Z}_{+} = \left\{ 0,1, \ldots \right\} = \left\{ 0\right\} \cup \mathbb {N}, \mathscr {A} is the σ\sigma-algebra of all subsets of Z+\mathbb {Z}_{+}. (It follows that Z={Z(B),B∈B(S)}Z = \left\{ Z(B), B \in \mathscr {B}(\mathrm{S})\right\} is a real-valued stochastic process indexed by the sets B(S)\mathscr {B}(\mathrm{S}).)

Example 6. Let λ\lambda be a finite measure (λ≢0\lambda \not\equiv 0) defined on some measurable space (S,B)(\mathrm{S}, \mathscr {B}). Let Y,X1,X2,…Y, X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots be independent random elements on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) such that YY is a real Poisson random variable with parameter λ(S)\lambda (\mathrm{S}), and X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots are independent identically distributed F∣B\mathscr {F} \mid \mathscr {B}-measurable variables for which PX1(B)=λ(B)/λ(S)\mathbb {P}_{X_{1}}\left(B\right) = \lambda (B) / \lambda (\mathrm{S}) for B∈BB \in \mathscr {B}. Define on B×Ω\mathscr {B} \times \Omega the function Z(B,ω)Z(B, \omega ) by setting

Z(B,ω)=∑j=1Y(ω)1B(Xj(ω))(14) Z(B, \omega ) = \sum _{j = 1}^{Y(\omega )} \mathbf{1}_{B}\left(X_{j}(\omega )\right) \tag {14}

(Z(B,ω)=0Z(B, \omega ) = 0 when Y(ω)=0Y(\omega ) = 0). Formula (14) defines the so-called Poisson random measure with intensity measure (or leading measure) λ\lambda.

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Problem I.19

Example 6. Let λ\lambda be a finite measure (λ≢0\lambda \not\equiv 0) defined on some measurable space (S,B)(\mathrm{S}, \mathscr {B}). Let Y,X1,X2,…Y, X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots be independent random elements on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) such that YY is a real Poisson random variable with parameter λ(S)\lambda (\mathrm{S}), and X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots are independent identically distributed F∣B\mathscr {F} \mid \mathscr {B}-measurable variables for which PX1(B)=λ(B)/λ(S)\mathbb {P}_{X_{1}}\left(B\right) = \lambda (B) / \lambda (\mathrm{S}) for B∈BB \in \mathscr {B}. Define on B×Ω\mathscr {B} \times \Omega the function Z(B,ω)Z(B, \omega ) by setting

Z(B,ω)=∑j=1Y(ω)1B(Xj(ω))(14) Z(B, \omega ) = \sum _{j = 1}^{Y(\omega )} \mathbf{1}_{B}\left(X_{j}(\omega )\right) \tag {14}

(Z(B,ω)=0Z(B, \omega ) = 0 when Y(ω)=0Y(\omega ) = 0). Formula (14) defines the so-called Poisson random measure with intensity measure (or leading measure) λ\lambda.

Let λ\lambda be a σ\sigma-finite measure on some measurable space ( S,B\mathrm{S}, \mathscr {B} ) (S=⋃m=1∞Sm\left(\mathrm{S} = \bigcup_{m = 1}^{\infty } \mathrm{S}_{m}\right., where Sm∈B,Sm∩Sk=∅\mathrm{S}_{m} \in \mathscr {B}, \mathrm{S}_{m} \cap \mathrm{S}_{k} = \varnothing for m≠km \neq k and 0<λ(Sm)<∞0 < \lambda \left(\mathrm{S}_{m}\right) < \infty, m,k∈Nm, k \in \mathbb {N} ). In this case the construction of the Poisson random measure (14) is easily modified as follows.

On some probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) construct a countable collection of independent variables

Y(1),X1(1),X2(1),…,Y(m),X1(m),X2(m),… Y^{(1)}, X_{1}^{(1)}, X_{2}^{(1)}, \ldots , Y^{(m)}, X_{1}^{(m)}, X_{2}^{(m)}, \ldots

such that Y(m)Y^{(m)} has the Poisson distribution with parameter λm=λ(Sm)\lambda_{m} = \lambda \left(\mathrm{S}_{m}\right) and Law⁡(Xj(m))=λ(⋅)/λ(Sm)\operatorname {Law}\left(X_{j}^{(m)}\right) = \lambda (\cdot ) / \lambda \left(\mathrm{S}_{m}\right) on Bm=B∩Sm;m,j∈N\mathscr {B}_{m} = \mathscr {B} \cap \mathrm{S}_{m} ; m, j \in \mathbb {N}. Let Zm(B,ω)Z_{m}(B, \omega ) for B∈BmB \in \mathscr {B}_{m} be defined according to (14) with YY replaced by Y(m)Y^{(m)} and XjX_{j} by Xj(m)X_{j}^{(m)}. Set

Z(B,ω)=∑m=1∞Zm(B∩Sm,ω),B∈B,ω∈Ω(54) Z(B, \omega ) = \sum _{m = 1}^{\infty } Z_{m}\left(B \cap \mathrm{S}_{m}, \omega \right), \quad B \in \mathscr {B}, \quad \omega \in \Omega \tag {54}

Note that Z(B,ω)Z(B, \omega ) may also take infinite values.

Prove that if λ(B)=∞\lambda (B) = \infty for some B∈BB \in \mathscr {B}, then Z(B)=∞Z(B) = \infty a.s., and if λ(B)<∞\lambda (B) < \infty, then Z(B)<∞Z(B) < \infty a.s.

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Problem I.20

Example 6. Let λ\lambda be a finite measure (λ≢0\lambda \not\equiv 0) defined on some measurable space (S,B)(\mathrm{S}, \mathscr {B}). Let Y,X1,X2,…Y, X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots be independent random elements on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) such that YY is a real Poisson random variable with parameter λ(S)\lambda (\mathrm{S}), and X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots are independent identically distributed F∣B\mathscr {F} \mid \mathscr {B}-measurable variables for which PX1(B)=λ(B)/λ(S)\mathbb {P}_{X_{1}}\left(B\right) = \lambda (B) / \lambda (\mathrm{S}) for B∈BB \in \mathscr {B}. Define on B×Ω\mathscr {B} \times \Omega the function Z(B,ω)Z(B, \omega ) by setting

Z(B,ω)=∑j=1Y(ω)1B(Xj(ω))(14) Z(B, \omega ) = \sum _{j = 1}^{Y(\omega )} \mathbf{1}_{B}\left(X_{j}(\omega )\right) \tag {14}

(Z(B,ω)=0Z(B, \omega ) = 0 when Y(ω)=0Y(\omega ) = 0). Formula (14) defines the so-called Poisson random measure with intensity measure (or leading measure) λ\lambda.

Let λ\lambda be a σ\sigma-finite measure on some measurable space ( S,B\mathrm{S}, \mathscr {B} ) (S=⋃m=1∞Sm\left(\mathrm{S} = \bigcup_{m = 1}^{\infty } \mathrm{S}_{m}\right., where Sm∈B,Sm∩Sk=∅\mathrm{S}_{m} \in \mathscr {B}, \mathrm{S}_{m} \cap \mathrm{S}_{k} = \varnothing for m≠km \neq k and 0<λ(Sm)<∞0 < \lambda \left(\mathrm{S}_{m}\right) < \infty, m,k∈Nm, k \in \mathbb {N} ). In this case the construction of the Poisson random measure (14) is easily modified as follows.

On some probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) construct a countable collection of independent variables

Y(1),X1(1),X2(1),…,Y(m),X1(m),X2(m),… Y^{(1)}, X_{1}^{(1)}, X_{2}^{(1)}, \ldots , Y^{(m)}, X_{1}^{(m)}, X_{2}^{(m)}, \ldots

such that Y(m)Y^{(m)} has the Poisson distribution with parameter λm=λ(Sm)\lambda_{m} = \lambda \left(\mathrm{S}_{m}\right) and Law⁡(Xj(m))=λ(⋅)/λ(Sm)\operatorname {Law}\left(X_{j}^{(m)}\right) = \lambda (\cdot ) / \lambda \left(\mathrm{S}_{m}\right) on Bm=B∩Sm;m,j∈N\mathscr {B}_{m} = \mathscr {B} \cap \mathrm{S}_{m} ; m, j \in \mathbb {N}. Let Zm(B,ω)Z_{m}(B, \omega ) for B∈BmB \in \mathscr {B}_{m} be defined according to (14) with YY replaced by Y(m)Y^{(m)} and XjX_{j} by Xj(m)X_{j}^{(m)}. Set

Z(B,ω)=∑m=1∞Zm(B∩Sm,ω),B∈B,ω∈Ω(54) Z(B, \omega ) = \sum _{m = 1}^{\infty } Z_{m}\left(B \cap \mathrm{S}_{m}, \omega \right), \quad B \in \mathscr {B}, \quad \omega \in \Omega \tag {54}

Note that Z(B,ω)Z(B, \omega ) may also take infinite values.

(see [32; p. 370]). Let B∈BB \in \mathscr {B} be such that 0<λ(B)<∞0 < \lambda (B) < \infty, where λ\lambda is a σ\sigma-finite measure on (S,B)(\mathrm{S}, \mathscr {B}). Let B=⋃q=1nBqB = \bigcup_{q = 1}^{n} B_{q}, where Bq∈B,Bj∩Bq=∅B_{q} \in \mathscr {B}, B_{j} \cap B_{q} = \varnothing for q≠j(q,j=1,…,n)q \neq j(q, j = 1, \ldots , n). Prove that for any k1,…,kn∈Z+k_{1}, \ldots , k_{n} \in \mathbb {Z}_{+} and k=∑q=1nkqk = \sum_{q = 1}^{n} k_{q} the following equality holds

P(Z(B1)=k1,…,Z(Bn)=kn∣Z(B)=k)==k!k1!⋯kn!(λ(B1)λ(B))k1⋯(λ(Bn)λ(B))kn \begin{aligned} & \mathbb {P}\left(Z\left(B_{1}\right) = k_{1}, \ldots , Z\left(B_{n}\right) = k_{n} \mid Z(B) = k\right) = \\ & = \frac{k !}{k_{1} ! \cdots k_{n} !}\left(\frac{\lambda \left(B_{1}\right)}{\lambda (B)}\right)^{k_{1}} \cdots \left(\frac{\lambda \left(B_{n}\right)}{\lambda (B)}\right)^{k_{n}} \end{aligned}
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Problem I.21

Let (St,Bt)t∈T(\mathrm{S}_{t}, \mathscr {B}_{t})_{t \in T} be a family of measurable spaces, and let ST=∏t∈TSt\mathrm{S}_{T} = \prod_{t \in T} \mathrm{S}_{t} be their Cartesian product, consisting of the functions y=y(t)y = y(t) defined on TT and such that y(t)∈Sty(t) \in \mathrm{S}_{t} for t∈Tt \in T.

Definition 6. The σ\sigma-algebra BT\mathscr {B}_{T} in the space ST\mathrm{S}_{T} generated by the collection of elementary cylinders, i.e., sets of the form CT(t,Bt)={y∈ST:y(t)∈Bt}C_{T}(t, B_{t}) = \left\{ y \in \mathrm{S}_{T}: y(t) \in B_{t}\right\}, where Bt∈BtB_{t} \in \mathscr {B}_{t}, t∈Tt \in T, is called the cylindrical σ\sigma-algebra.

Every random function X={X(t),t∈T}X = \left\{ X(t), t \in T\right\}, regarded as a random element ω↦X(⋅,ω)\omega \mapsto X(\cdot , \omega ) with values in ST\mathrm{S}_{T}, induces a probability distribution PX\mathbb {P}_{X} on (ST,BT)(\mathrm{S}_{T}, \mathscr {B}_{T}).

Give an example of real-valued processes X={Xt,t∈T}X = \left\{ X_{t}, t \in T\right\} and Y={Yt,t∈T}Y = \left\{ Y_{t}, t \in T\right\} defined on the same probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) such that PX=PY\mathbb {P}_{X} = \mathbb {P}_{Y} on BT\mathscr {B}_{T}, but XX and YY are not (stochastically) equivalent. Give an example where PX≠PY\mathbb {P}_{X} \neq \mathbb {P}_{Y}, but the distributions of XtX_{t} and YtY_{t} coincide for each t∈Tt \in T.

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Problem I.22

Let (St,Bt)t∈T(\mathrm{S}_{t}, \mathscr {B}_{t})_{t \in T} be a family of measurable spaces, and let ST=∏t∈TSt\mathrm{S}_{T} = \prod_{t \in T} \mathrm{S}_{t} be their Cartesian product, consisting of the functions y=y(t)y = y(t) defined on TT and such that y(t)∈Sty(t) \in \mathrm{S}_{t} for t∈Tt \in T.

Definition 6. The σ\sigma-algebra BT\mathscr {B}_{T} in the space ST\mathrm{S}_{T} generated by the collection of elementary cylinders, i.e., sets of the form CT(t,Bt)={y∈ST:y(t)∈Bt}C_{T}(t, B_{t}) = \left\{ y \in \mathrm{S}_{T}: y(t) \in B_{t}\right\}, where Bt∈BtB_{t} \in \mathscr {B}_{t}, t∈Tt \in T, is called the cylindrical σ\sigma-algebra.

Give an example of a (real-valued) process X={Xt,t∈T}X = \left\{ X_{t}, t \in T\right\} and sets D,L∉BTD, L \notin \mathscr {B}_{T} such that {ω:X(⋅,ω)∈D}∈F\left\{ \omega : X(\cdot , \omega ) \in D\right\} \in \mathscr {F} and {ω:X(⋅,ω)∈L}∉F\left\{ \omega : X(\cdot , \omega ) \in L\right\} \notin \mathscr {F}.

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Problem I.23

Let (St,Bt)t∈T(\mathrm{S}_{t}, \mathscr {B}_{t})_{t \in T} be a family of measurable spaces, and let ST=∏t∈TSt\mathrm{S}_{T} = \prod_{t \in T} \mathrm{S}_{t} be their Cartesian product, consisting of the functions y=y(t)y = y(t) defined on TT and such that y(t)∈Sty(t) \in \mathrm{S}_{t} for t∈Tt \in T.

Definition 6. The σ\sigma-algebra BT\mathscr {B}_{T} in the space ST\mathrm{S}_{T} generated by the collection of elementary cylinders, i.e., sets of the form CT(t,Bt)={y∈ST:y(t)∈Bt}C_{T}(t, B_{t}) = \left\{ y \in \mathrm{S}_{T}: y(t) \in B_{t}\right\}, where Bt∈BtB_{t} \in \mathscr {B}_{t}, t∈Tt \in T, is called the cylindrical σ\sigma-algebra.

Give an example of equivalent processes X={Xt,t∈T}X = \left\{ X_{t}, t \in T\right\} and Y={Yt,t∈T}Y = \left\{ Y_{t}, t \in T\right\}, and also of a set D∉BTD \notin \mathscr {B}_{T}, such that A={ω:X(⋅,ω)∈D}∈FA = \left\{ \omega : X(\cdot , \omega ) \in D\right\} \in \mathscr {F} and B={ω:Y(⋅,ω)∈D}∈FB = \left\{ \omega : Y(\cdot , \omega ) \in D\right\} \in \mathscr {F}, but P(A)≠P(B)\mathbb {P}\left(A\right) \neq \mathbb {P}\left(B\right).

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Problem I.24

Give an example of (stochastically) equivalent processes that are not indistinguishable.

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Problem I.25

Prove that if S\mathrm{S} is a separable metric space, then what stands under the probability sign in (56) is an event, i.e., a set belonging to F\mathscr {F}.

Formula (56) is the condition of stochastic continuity on TT of a stochastic process X={Xt,t∈T}X = \left\{ X_{t}, t \in T\right\} defined on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}), where (T,δ)(T, \delta ) is a pseudometric space, and taking, for each t∈Tt \in T, values in a metric space (S,ρ)(\mathrm{S}, \rho ): for each t∈Tt \in T and any ε>0\varepsilon > 0

lim⁡s→tP(ρ(Xs,Xt)>ε)=0(56) \lim _{s \rightarrow t} \mathbb {P}\left(\rho \left(X_{s}, X_{t}\right) > \varepsilon \right) = 0 \tag {56}
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Problem I.26

Prove that if a process is measurable (see Definition 14), then each of its sample paths is an A∣B\mathscr {A} \mid \mathscr {B}-measurable function. Is the converse true? Give an example of a process that has no measurable modification.

Definition 14. Let (T,A)(T, \mathscr {A}) be a measurable space. A stochastic process X={Xt,t∈T}X = \left\{ X_{t}, t \in T\right\} defined on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) and taking, for each t∈Tt \in T, values in a measurable space (S,B)(\mathrm{S}, \mathscr {B}) is called measurable if the mapping (t,ω)↦Xt(ω)∈S(t, \omega ) \mapsto X_{t}(\omega ) \in \mathrm{S}, (t,ω)∈T×Ω(t, \omega ) \in T \times \Omega, is A⊗F∣B\mathscr {A} \otimes \mathscr {F} \mid \mathscr {B}-measurable.

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Problem I.27

Definition 14. Let (T,A)(T, \mathscr {A}) be a measurable space. A stochastic process X={Xt,t∈T}X = \left\{ X_{t}, t \in T\right\} defined on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega , \mathscr {F}, \mathbb {P}) and taking, for each t∈Tt \in T, values in a measurable space (S,B)(\mathrm{S}, \mathscr {B}) is called measurable if the mapping (t,ω)↦Xt(ω)∈S(t, \omega ) \mapsto X_{t}(\omega ) \in \mathrm{S}, (t,ω)∈T×Ω(t, \omega ) \in T \times \Omega, is A⊗F∣B\mathscr {A} \otimes \mathscr {F} \mid \mathscr {B}-measurable.

Let X={Xt,t∈T}X = \left\{ X_{t}, t \in T\right\} be a measurable process and τ:Ω→T,τ∈F∣A\tau : \Omega \rightarrow T, \tau \in \mathscr {F} \mid \mathscr {A}. Prove that then Y(ω)=Xτ(ω)(ω)Y(\omega ) = X_{\tau (\omega )}(\omega ) is an F∣B\mathscr {F} \mid \mathscr {B}-measurable variable. Show that if the measurability condition on the process XX is dropped, then the stated assertion need not hold.

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Problem I.28

Let almost all sample paths of a process X={X(t),t⩾0}X = \left\{ X(t), t \geqslant 0\right\} be right-continuous on [0,∞)[0, \infty ). Prove that such a process has a measurable modification.

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