Section 21

Expected Values

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Problem 21.1

Prove

12π∫−∞∞e−tx2/2dx=t−1/2 \frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi }} \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } e^{-t x^{2} / 2} d x=t^{-1 / 2}

differentiate kk times with respect to tt inside the integral (justify), and derive (21.7) again.

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Problem 21.2

Show that, if XX has the standard normal distribution, then E[∣X∣2n+1]=2nn!2/π\mathbb {E}\left[|X|^{2 n+1}\right]= 2^{n} n!\sqrt{2 / \pi }.

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Problem 21.3

20.9↑20.9 \uparrow Records. Consider the sequence of records in the sense of Problem 20.9. Show that the expected waiting time to the next record is infinite.

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Problem 21.4

20.14 ↑ Show that the Cauchy distribution has no mean.

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Problem 21.5

Prove the first Borel-Cantelli lemma by applying Theorem 16.6 to indicator random variables. Why is Theorem 16.6 not enough for the second Borel-Cantelli lemma?

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Problem 21.6

Prove ( 21.9 ) by Fubini's theorem.

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Problem 21.7

Prove for integrable XX that

E[X]=∫0∞P(X>t)dt−∫−∞0P(X<t)dt \mathbb {E}\left[X\right]=\int _{0}^{\infty } \mathbb {P}\left(X>t\right) d t-\int _{-\infty }^{0} \mathbb {P}\left(X<t\right) d t
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Problem 21.8
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(a)

Suppose that XX and YY have first moments, and prove

E[Y]−E[X]=∫−∞∞(P(X<t≤Y)−P(Y<t≤X))dt \mathbb {E}\left[Y\right]-\mathbb {E}\left[X\right]=\int _{-\infty }^{\infty }(\mathbb {P}\left(X<t \leq Y\right)-\mathbb {P}\left(Y<t \leq X\right)) d t
(b)

Let ( X,YX, Y ] be a nondegenerate random interval Show that its expected length is the integral with respect to tt of the probability that it covers tt.

Problem 21.9

Suppose that XX and YY are random variables with distribution functions FF and GG.

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(a)

Show that if FF and GG have no common jumps, then E[F(Y)]+E[G(X)]=1\mathbb {E}\left[F(Y)\right]+\mathbb {E}\left[G(X)\right] =1.

(b)

If FF is continuous, then E[F(X)]=12\mathbb {E}\left[F(X)\right]=\frac{1}{2}.

(c)

Even if FF and GG have common jumps, if XX and YY are taken to be independent, then E[F(Y)]+E[G(X)]=1+P(X=Y)\mathbb {E}\left[F(Y)\right]+\mathbb {E}\left[G(X)\right]=1+\mathbb {P}\left(X=Y\right).

(d)

Even if FF has jumps, E[F(X)]=12+12∑xP(X=x)2\mathbb {E}\left[F(X)\right]=\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{2} \sum_{x} \mathbb {P}\left(X=x\right)^{2}

Problem 21.10
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(a)

Show that uncorrelated variables need not be independent.

(b)

Show that Var⁡[∑i=1nXi]=∑i,j=1nCov⁡[Xi,Xj]=∑i=1nVar⁡[Xi]+2∑1≤i<j≤nCov⁡[Xi,Xj]\operatorname {Var}\left[\sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{i}\right]=\sum_{i, j=1}^{n} \operatorname {Cov}\left[X_{i}, X_{j}\right]=\sum_{i=1}^{n} \operatorname {Var}\left[X_{i}\right]+ 2 \sum_{1 \leq i<j \leq n} \operatorname {Cov}\left[X_{i}, X_{j}\right]. The cross terms drop out if the XiX_{i} are uncorrelated, and hence drop out if they are independent.

Problem 21.11

↑ Let X,YX, Y, and ZZ be independent random variables such that XX and YY assume the values 0,1,20,1,2 with probability 13\frac{1}{3} each and ZZ assumes the values 0 and 1 with probabilities 13\frac{1}{3} and 23\frac{2}{3}. Let X′=XX^{\prime }=X and Y′=X+Z( mod 3)Y^{\prime }=X+Z(\bmod 3).

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(a)

Show that X′,Y′X^{\prime }, Y^{\prime }, and X′+Y′X^{\prime }+Y^{\prime } have the same one-dimensional distributions as X,YX, Y, and X+YX+Y, respectively, even though (X′,Y′)(X^{\prime }, Y^{\prime }) and (X,Y)(X, Y) have different distributions.

(b)

Show that X′X^{\prime } and Y′Y^{\prime } are dependent but uncorrelated

(c)

Show that, despite dependence, the moment generating function of X′+Y′X^{\prime }+Y^{\prime } is the product of the moment generating functions of X′X^{\prime } and Y′Y^{\prime }.

Problem 21.12

Suppose that XX and YY are independent, nonnegative random variables and that E[X]=∞\mathbb {E}\left[X\right]=\infty and E[Y]=0\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right]=0. What is the value common to E[XY]\mathbb {E}\left[X Y\right] and E[X]E[Y]\mathbb {E}\left[X\right] \mathbb {E}\left[Y\right]? Use the conventions (15.2) for both the product of the random variables and the product of their expected values. What if E[X]=∞\mathbb {E}\left[X\right]=\infty and 0<E[Y]<∞0<\mathbb {E}\left[Y\right]<\infty?

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Problem 21.13

Suppose that XX and YY are independent and that f(x,y)f(x, y) is nonnegative. Put g(x)=E[f(x,Y)]g(x)=\mathbb {E}\left[f(x, Y)\right] and show that E[g(X)]=E[f(X,Y)]\mathbb {E}\left[g(X)\right]=\mathbb {E}\left[f(X, Y)\right]. Show more generally that ∫X∈Ag(X)dP=∫X∈Af(X,Y)dP\int_{X \in A} g(X) d P=\int_{X \in A} f(X, Y) d P. Extend to ff that may be negative.

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Problem 21.14

↑\uparrow The integrability of X+YX+Y does not imply that of XX and YY separately. Show that it does if XX and YY are independent.

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Problem 21.15

20.25↑20.25 \uparrow Write d1(X,Y)=E[∣X−Y∣/(1+∣X−Y∣)]d_{1}(X, Y)=\mathbb {E}\left[\left|X-Y\right| /(1+\left|X-Y\right|)\right]. Show that this is a metric equivalent to the one in Problem 20.25.

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Problem 21.16

For the density Cexp⁡(−∣x∣1/2),−∞<x<∞C \exp \left(-|x|^{1 / 2}\right),-\infty <x<\infty, show that moments of all orders exist but that the moment generating function exists only at s=0s=0.

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Problem 21.17

16.6 ↑ Show that a moment generating function M(s)M(s) defined in (−s0,s0)\left(-s_{0}, s_{0}\right), s0>0s_{0}>0, can be extended to a function analytic in the strip [z:−s0<Re⁡z<s0]\left[z:-s_{0}<\operatorname {Re} z<s_{0}\right]. If M(s)M(s) is defined in [0,s0),s0>0\left[0, s_{0}\right), s_{0}>0, show that it can be extended to a function continuous in [z:0≤Re⁡z<s0]\left[z: 0 \leq \operatorname {Re} z<s_{0}\right] and analytic in [z⋅0<Re⁡z<s0]\left[z \cdot 0<\operatorname {Re} z<s_{0}\right].

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Problem 21.18

Use (21.28) to find the generating function of (20.39).

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Problem 21.19

For independent random variables having moment generating functions, show by (21.28) that the variances add.

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Problem 21.20

20.17 Show that the gamma density (20.47) has moment generating function (1−s/α)−u(1-s / \alpha )^{-u} for s<αs<\alpha. Show that the kk th moment is u(u+1)⋯(u+k−u(u+1) \cdots (u+k- 1) /αk/ \alpha^{k} Show that the chi-squared distribution with nn degrees of freedom has mean nn and variance 2n2 n.

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Problem 21.21

Let X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots be identically distributed random variables with finite second moment. Show that nP(∣X1∣≥ϵn)→0n \mathbb {P}\left(\left|X_{1}\right| \geq \epsilon \sqrt{n}\right) \rightarrow 0 and n−1/2max⁡k≤n∣Xk∣→p0n^{-1 / 2} \max_{k \leq n}\left|X_{k}\right| \rightarrow_{p} 0.

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