Section 5

Simple Random Variables

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Problem 5.1
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(a)

Show that XX is measurable with respect to the σ\sigma-field A\mathscr {A} if and only if σ(X)⊂G\sigma (X) \subset \mathscr {G}. Show that XX is measurable σ(Y)\sigma (Y) if and only if σ(X)⊂σ(Y)\sigma (X) \subset \sigma (Y).

(b)

Show that, if G={∅,Ω}\mathscr {G}=\left\{ \varnothing , \Omega \right\}, then XX is measurable G\mathscr {G} if and only if XX is constant.

(c)

Suppose that P(A)\mathbb {P}\left(A\right) is 0 or 1 for every AA in G\mathscr {G}. This holds, for example, if G\mathscr {G} is the tail field of an independent sequence (Theorem 4.5), or if E\mathscr {E} consists of the countable and cocountable sets on the unit interval with Lebesgue measure. Show that if XX is measurable G\mathscr {G}, then P(X=c)=1\mathbb {P}\left(X=c\right)=1 for some constant cc.

Problem 5.2

2.19↑2.19 \uparrow Show that the unit interval can be replaced by any nonatomic probability measure space in the proof of Theorem 5.3.

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Problem 5.3

Show that m=E[X]m=\mathbb {E}\left[X\right] minimizes E[(X−m)2]\mathbb {E}\left[(X-m)^{2}\right].

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Problem 5.4

Suppose that XX assumes the values m−α,m,m+αm-\alpha , m, m+\alpha with probabilities p,1−2p,pp, 1- 2 p, p, and show that there is equality in (5.32). Thus Chebyshev's inequality cannot be improved without special assumptions on XX.

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Problem 5.5

Suppose that XX has mean mm and variance σ2\sigma^{2}.

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(a)

Prove Cantelli's inequality

P(X−m≥α)≤σ2σ2+α2,α≥0. \mathbb {P}\left(X-m \geq \alpha \right) \leq \frac{\sigma ^{2}}{\sigma ^{2}+\alpha ^{2}}, \quad \alpha \geq 0.
(b)

Show that P(∣X−m∣≥α)≤2σ2/(σ2+α2)\mathbb {P}\left(\left|X-m\right| \geq \alpha \right) \leq 2 \sigma^{2} /\left(\sigma^{2}+\alpha^{2}\right). When is this better than Chebyshev's inequality?

(c)

By considering a random variable assuming two values, show that Cantelli's inequality is sharp.

Problem 5.6

The polynomial E[(t∣X∣+∣Y∣)2]\mathbb {E}\left[(t\left|X\right|+\left|Y\right|)^{2}\right] in tt has at most one real zero. Deduce Schwarz's inequality once more.

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Problem 5.7
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(a)

Write (5.37) in the form Eβ/α[∣X∣α]≤E[∣X∣α)β/α]\left.E^{\beta / \alpha }\left[|X|^{\alpha }\right] \leq E\left[|X|^{\alpha }\right)^{\beta / \alpha }\right] and deduce it directly from Jensen's inequality.

(b)

Prove that E[1/Xp]≥1/Ep[X]\mathbb {E}\left[1 / X^{p}\right] \geq 1 / E^{p}[X] for p>0p>0 and XX a positive random variable.

Problem 5.8
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(a)

Let ff be a convex real function on a convex set CC in the plane Suppose that (X(ω),Y(ω))∈C(X(\omega ), Y(\omega )) \in C for all ω\omega and prove a two-dimensional Jensen's mequality:

f(E[X],E[Y])≤E[f(X,Y)].(5.38) f(\mathbb {E}\left[X\right], \mathbb {E}\left[Y\right]) \leq \mathbb {E}\left[f(X, Y)\right]. \tag {5.38}
(b)

Show that ff is convex if it has continuous second derivatives that satisfy

f11≥0,f22≥0,f11f22≥f122.(5.39) f_{11} \geq 0, \quad f_{22} \geq 0, \quad f_{11} f_{22} \geq f_{12}^{2}. \tag {5.39}
Problem 5.9

↑\uparrow Hölder's inequality is equivalent to E[X1/pY1/q]≤E1/p[X]⋅E1/q[Y](p−1+q−1=1)\mathbb {E}\left[X^{1 / p} Y^{1 / q}\right] \leq E^{1 / p}[X] \cdot E^{1 / q}[Y] \left(p^{-1}+q^{-1}=1\right), where XX and YY are nonnegative random variables. Derive this from (5.38).

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Problem 5.10

↑ Minkowski's inequality is

E1/p[∣X+Y∣p]≤E1/p[∣X∣p]+E1/p[∣Y∣p],(5.40) E^{1 / p}\left[|X+Y|^{p}\right] \leq E^{1 / p}\left[|X|^{p}\right]+E^{1 / p}\left[|Y|^{p}\right], \tag {5.40}

valid for p≥1p \geq 1. It is enough to prove that E[(X1/p+Y1/p)p]≤(E1/p[X]+E1/p[Y])p\mathbb {E}\left[\left(X^{1 / p}+Y^{1 / p}\right)^{p}\right] \leq \left(E^{1 / p}[X]+\right. \left.E^{1 / p}[Y]\right)^{p} for nonnegative XX and YY. Use (5.38).

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Problem 5.11

For events A1,A2,…A_{1}, A_{2}, \ldots, not necessarily independent, let Nn=∑k=1niAkN_{n}=\sum_{k=1}^{n} i_{A_{k}} be the number to occur among the first nn. Let

αn=1n∑k=1nP(Ak),βn=2n(n−1)∑1≤j<k≤nP(Aj∩Ak).(5.41) \alpha _{n}=\frac{1}{n} \sum _{k=1}^{n} \mathbb {P}\left(A_{k}\right), \quad \beta _{n}=\frac{2}{n(n-1)} \sum _{1 \leq j<k \leq n} \mathbb {P}\left(A_{j} \cap A_{k}\right). \tag {5.41}

Show that

E[n−1Nn]=αn,Var⁡[n−1Nn]=βn−αn2+αn−βnn.(5.42) \mathbb {E}\left[n^{-1} N_{n}\right]=\alpha _{n}, \quad \operatorname {Var}\left[n^{-1} N_{n}\right]=\beta _{n}-\alpha _{n}^{2}+\frac{\alpha _{n}-\beta _{n}}{n}. \tag {5.42}

Thus Var⁡[n−1Nn]→0\operatorname {Var}\left[n^{-1} N_{n}\right] \rightarrow 0 if and only if βn−αn2→0\beta_{n}-\alpha_{n}^{2} \rightarrow 0, which holds if the AnA_{n} are independent and P(An)=p\mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right)=p (Bernoulli trials), because then αn=p\alpha_{n}=p and βn=p2=αn2\beta_{n}= p^{2}=\alpha_{n}^{2}.

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Problem 5.12

Show that, if XX has nonnegative integers as values, then E[X]=∑n=1∞P(X≥n)\mathbb {E}\left[X\right]=\sum_{n=1}^{\infty } \mathbb {P}\left(X \geq n\right).

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Problem 5.13

Let Ii=IAiI_{i}=I_{A_{i}} be the indicators of nn events having union AA. Let Sk=∑Ii1⋯IikS_{k}=\sum I_{i_{1}} \cdots I_{i_{k}}, where the summation extends over all kk-tuples satisfying 1≤i1<⋯<ik≤n1 \leq i_{1}<\cdots <i_{k} \leq n. Then sk=E[Sk]s_{k}=\mathbb {E}\left[S_{k}\right] are the terms in the inclusion-exclusion formula P(A)=s1−s2+⋯±sn\mathbb {P}\left(A\right)=s_{1}- s_{2}+\cdots \pm s_{n}. Deduce the inclusion-exclusion formula from IA=S1−S2+⋯±SnI_{A}=S_{1}-S_{2}+ \cdots \pm S_{n}. Prove the latter formula by expanding the product ∏i=1n(1−Ii)\prod_{i=1}^{n}\left(1-I_{i}\right)

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Problem 5.14

Let fn(x)f_{n}(x) be n2xn^{2} x or 2n−n2x2 n-n^{2} x or 0 according as 0≤x≤n−10 \leq x \leq n^{-1} or n−1≤x≤2n−1n^{-1} \leq x \leq 2 n^{-1} or 2n−1≤x≤12 n^{-1} \leq x \leq 1. This gives a standard example of a sequence of continuous functions that converges to 0 but not uniformly. Note that ∫01fn(x)dx\int_{0}^{1} f_{n}(x) d x does not converge to 0 ; relate to Example 5.7.

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Problem 5.15

By Theorem 5.3, for any prescribed sequence of probabilities pnp_{n}, there exists (on some space) an independent sequence of events AnA_{n} satisfying P(An)=pn\mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right)=p_{n}. Show that if pn→0p_{n} \rightarrow 0 but ∑pn=∞\sum p_{n}=\infty, this gives a counterexample (like Example 5.4) to the converse of Theorem 5.2(ii).

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Problem 5.16

↑\uparrow Suppose that 0≤pn≤10 \leq p_{n} \leq 1 and put αn=min⁡{pn,1−pn}\alpha_{n}=\min \left\{ p_{n}, 1-p_{n}\right\}. Show that, if ∑αn\sum \alpha_{n} converges, then on some discrete probability space there exist independent events AnA_{n} satisfying P(An)=pn\mathbb {P}\left(A_{n}\right)=p_{n}. Compare Problem 1.1(b).

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Problem 5.17
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(a)

Suppose that Xn→PXX_{n} \rightarrow_{P} X and that ff is continuous. Show that f(Xn)→Pf(X)f\left(X_{n}\right) \rightarrow_{P} f(X).

(b)

Show that E[∣X−Xn∣]→0\mathbb {E}\left[\left|X-X_{n}\right|\right] \rightarrow 0 implies Xn→pXX_{n} \rightarrow_{p} X. Show that the converse is false.

Problem 5.18

2.20↑2.20 \uparrow The proof given for Theorem 5.3 for the special case where the μn\mu_{n} are all the same can be extended to cover the general case: use Problem 2.20.

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Problem 5.19

2.18↑2.18 \uparrow For integers mm and primes pp, let αp(m)\alpha_{p}(m) be the exact power of pp in the prime factorization of m:m=Πppαp(m)m: m=\Pi_{p} p^{\alpha_{p}(m)}. Let δp(m)\delta_{p}(m) be 1 or 0 as pp divides mm or not. Under each PnP_{n} (see (2.34)) the αp\alpha_{p} and δp\delta_{p} are random variables. Show that for distinct primes p1,…,pup_{1}, \ldots , p_{u},

Pn(αpi≥ki,i≤u)=1n⌊np1k1⋯pukn⌋→1p1k1⋯pukn(5.43) \mathbb {P}_{n}\left(\alpha _{p_{i}} \geq k_{i}, i \leq u\right)=\frac{1}{n}\left\lfloor \frac{n}{p_{1}^{k_{1}} \cdots p_{u}^{k_{n}}}\right\rfloor \rightarrow \frac{1}{p_{1}^{k_{1}} \cdots p_{u}^{k_{n}}} \tag {5.43}

and

Pn(αpi=ki,i≤u)→∏i=1u(1piki−1piki+1).(5.44) \mathbb {P}_{n}\left(\alpha _{p_{i}}=k_{i}, i \leq u\right) \rightarrow \prod _{i=1}^{u}\left(\frac{1}{p_{i}^{k_{i}}}-\frac{1}{p_{i}^{k_{i}+1}}\right). \tag {5.44}

Similarly,

Pn(δp1=1,i≤u)=1n∣np1⋯pu∣→1p1⋯pu(5.45) \mathbb {P}_{n}\left(\delta _{p_{1}}=1, i \leq u\right)=\frac{1}{n}\left|\frac{n}{p_{1} \cdots p_{u}}\right| \rightarrow \frac{1}{p_{1} \cdots p_{u}} \tag {5.45}

According to (5.44), the αp\alpha_{p} are for large nn approximately independent under PnP_{n}, and according to (5.45), the same is true of the δp\delta_{p}.

For a function ff of positive integers, let

En[f]=1n∑m=1nf(m)(5.46) E_{n}[f]=\frac{1}{n} \sum _{m=1}^{n} f(m) \tag {5.46}

be its expected value under the probability measure PnP_{n}. Show that

En[αp]=∑k=1∞1n∣npk∣→1p−1;(5.47) E_{n}\left[\alpha _{p}\right]=\sum _{k=1}^{\infty } \frac{1}{n}\left|\frac{n}{p^{k}}\right| \rightarrow \frac{1}{p-1} ; \tag {5.47}

this says roughly that (p−1)−1(p-1)^{-1} is the average power of pp in the factorization of large integers.

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Problem 5.20
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(a)

From Stirling's formula, deduce

En[log⁡]=log⁡n+O(1).(5.48) E_{n}[\log ]=\log n+O(1). \tag {5.48}

From this, the inequality En[αp]≤2/pE_{n}\left[\alpha_{p}\right] \leq 2 / p, and the relation log⁡m=∑pαp(m)log⁡p\log m=\sum_{p} \alpha_{p}(m) \log p, conclude that Σpp−1log⁡p\Sigma_{p} p^{-1} \log p diverges and that there are infinitely many primes.

(b)

Let log⁡∗m=∑pδp(m)log⁡p\log^{*} m=\sum_{p} \delta_{p}(m) \log p. Show that

En[log⁡∗]=∑p1n⌊np⌋log⁡p=log⁡n+O(1).(5.49) E_{n}\left[\log ^{*}\right]=\sum _{p} \frac{1}{n}\left\lfloor \frac{n}{p}\right\rfloor \log p=\log n+O(1). \tag {5.49}
(c)

Show that ⌊2n/p⌋−2⌊n/p⌋\lfloor 2 n / p\rfloor -2\lfloor n / p\rfloor is always nonnegative and equals 1 in the range n<p≤2nn<p \leq 2 n. Deduce E2n[log⁡∗]−En[log⁡∗]=O(1)E_{2 n}\left[\log^{*}\right]-E_{n}\left[\log^{*}\right]=O(1) and conclude that

∑p≤xlog⁡p=O(x).(5.50) \sum _{p \leq x} \log p=O(x). \tag {5.50}

Use this to estimate the error removing the integral-part brackets introduces into (5.49), and show that

∑p≤xp−1log⁡p=log⁡x+O(1).(5.51) \sum _{p \leq x} p^{-1} \log p=\log x+O(1). \tag {5.51}
(d)

Restrict the range of summation in (5.51) to θx<p≤x\theta x<p \leq x for an appropriate θ\theta, and conclude that

∑p≤xlog⁡p≈x,(5.52) \sum _{p \leq x} \log p \approx x, \tag {5.52}

in the sense that the ratio of the two sides is bounded away from 0 and ∞\infty.

(e)

Use (5.52) and truncation arguments to prove for the number π(x)\pi (x) of primes not exceeding xx that

π(x)≍xlog⁡x.(5.53) \pi (x) \asymp \frac{x}{\log x}. \tag {5.53}

(By the prime number theorem the ratio of the two sides in fact goes to 1.) Conclude that the rr th prime prp_{r} satisfies pr≍rlog⁡rp_{r} \asymp r \log r and that

∑p1p=∞.(5.54) \sum _{p} \frac{1}{p}=\infty . \tag {5.54}