Ruin Theory (Collective Risk Model)

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A freelance salesman is paid RR units for each sale, and commissions arrive at the instants of a Poisson process of rate λ\lambda. Living costs consume his resources at unit rate. If his initial wealth is S>0S > 0, show that the probability that he ever becomes bankrupt is aS/Ra^{S / R}, where aa is the smallest x>0x > 0 such that x=eλR(x−1)x = e^{\lambda R(x-1)}.

Prove that a∈(0,1)a \in (0,1) if λR>1\lambda R > 1, while a=1a = 1 if λR<1\lambda R < 1.

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An insurance company receives premiums (net of costs) at unit rate per unit time, and the claims of size X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots are independent random variables with common distribution function FF, arriving at the instants of a Poisson process of rate 1. Show that the probability r(y)r(y) of ruin (that is, assets becoming negative) for an initial capital yy satisfies

dr(y)dy=λr(y)−λP(X1>y)−λ∫0yr(y−x)dF(x) \frac{d r(y)}{d y} = \lambda r(y)-\lambda \mathbb {P}\left(X_{1} > y\right)-\lambda \int _{0}^{y} r(y-x) d F(x)
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Draw a typical trajectory of the process YtY_{t} in the Sparre Andersen insurance model.

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References

[GrSt20] Grimmett G.R., Stirzaker D.R. Probability and Random Processes. 4th ed., Oxford University Press, 2020.
[ЖРШ16] Жуковский М.Е., Родионов И.В., Шабанов Д.А. Основы теории случайных процессов. МФТИ, 2016.