Non-homogeneous Poisson processes
[6/50%]Let be a non-homogeneous Poisson process on with intensity function . Find the joint density of the first two inter-event times, and deduce that they are not in general independent.
Let be a non-homogeneous Poisson process on with intensity function .
Write down the forward and backward equations for , and solve them.
Let , and find the density function of the time until the first arrival in the process. If , show that if and only if .
Successive offers for my house are independent identically distributed random variables , , having density function and distribution function . Let , let be the first offer exceeding , and generally let be the first offer exceeding . Show that are the times of arrivals in a non-homogeneous Poisson process with intensity function . The are called 'record values'.
Now let be the first offer received which is the second largest to date, and let be the second such offer, and so on. Show that the are the arrival times of a non-homogeneous Poisson process with intensity function .
Consider a Poisson process with variable intensity, i.e., the probability of a jump occurring in the time interval does not depend on the past and equals as (note that may depend on ).
Prove that the probability of no jumps on the time interval equals
Let be the first point of the process. Find its distribution.
Prove that the probability of exactly jumps on the time interval equals
Let be an inhomogeneous Poisson process with time dependent intensity . Find, with as in the previous problem, the probabilities and .
The risk for car accidents on a specific road varies with the time of the day; denote by the intensity with which there occurs an accident at a certain road at time , .
What factors can influence , directly or indirectly?
Assume , and find the average number of accidents per day, and the probability of no accidents between six in the evening and six in the morning.