Non-homogeneous Poisson processes

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Let NN be a non-homogeneous Poisson process on R+\mathbb {R}_{+}with intensity function λ\lambda. Find the joint density of the first two inter-event times, and deduce that they are not in general independent.

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Let NN be a non-homogeneous Poisson process on R+=[0,∞)\mathbb {R}_{+} = [0, \infty ) with intensity function λ\lambda.

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(a)

Write down the forward and backward equations for NN, and solve them.

(b)

Let N(0)=0N(0) = 0, and find the density function of the time TT until the first arrival in the process. If λ(t)=c/(1+t)\lambda (t) = c /(1+t), show that E[T]<∞\mathbb {E}\left[T\right] < \infty if and only if c>1c > 1.

Successive offers for my house are independent identically distributed random variables X1X_{1}, X2,…X_{2}, \ldots, having density function ff and distribution function FF. Let Y1=X1Y_{1} = X_{1}, let Y2Y_{2} be the first offer exceeding Y1Y_{1}, and generally let Yn+1Y_{n+1} be the first offer exceeding YnY_{n}. Show that Y1,Y2,…Y_{1}, Y_{2}, \ldots are the times of arrivals in a non-homogeneous Poisson process with intensity function λ(t)=f(t)/(1−F(t))\lambda (t) = f(t) /(1-F(t)). The YiY_{i} are called 'record values'.

Now let Z1Z_{1} be the first offer received which is the second largest to date, and let Z2Z_{2} be the second such offer, and so on. Show that the ZiZ_{i} are the arrival times of a non-homogeneous Poisson process with intensity function λ\lambda.

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Consider a Poisson process with variable intensity, i.e., the probability of a jump occurring in the time interval (t,t+h)(t, t+h) does not depend on the past and equals λ(t)h+o(h)\lambda (t)h + o(h) as h→0h \to 0 (note that λ\lambda may depend on tt).

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(a)

Prove that the probability of no jumps on the time interval [0,t][0, t] equals

exp⁡{−∫0tλ(s) ds}. \exp \left\{ -\int _{0}^{t} \lambda (s)\, ds\right\} .
(b)

Let x1x_{1} be the first point of the process. Find its distribution.

(c)

Prove that the probability of exactly kk jumps on the time interval [0,t][0, t] equals

1k!(∫0tλ(s) ds)kexp⁡{−∫0tλ(s) ds}. \frac{1}{k!}\left(\int _{0}^{t} \lambda (s)\, ds\right)^{k} \exp \left\{ -\int _{0}^{t} \lambda (s)\, ds\right\} .

Let {X(t)}\left\{ X(t)\right\} be an inhomogeneous Poisson process with time dependent intensity λ(t)=γt\lambda (t) = \gamma t. Find, with T1T_{1} as in the previous problem, the probabilities P(T1≤s)\mathbb {P}\left(T_{1} \leq s\right) and P(T1≤s∣X(t)=1)\mathbb {P}\left(T_{1} \leq s \mid X(t)=1\right).

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The risk for car accidents on a specific road varies with the time of the day; denote by λ(t)\lambda (t) the intensity with which there occurs an accident at a certain road at time tt, 0≤t≤240 \leq t \leq 24.

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(a)

What factors can influence λ(t)\lambda (t), directly or indirectly?

(b)

Assume λ(t)=0.001(2−cos⁡2πt/24)\lambda (t) = 0.001(2-\cos 2\pi t/24), and find the average number of accidents per day, and the probability of no accidents between six in the evening and six in the morning.

References

[GrSt20] Grimmett G.R., Stirzaker D.R. Probability and Random Processes. 4th ed., Oxford University Press, 2020.
[КоФо03] Коршунов Д.А., Фосс С.Г. Сборник задач и упражнений по теории вероятностей. 2-е изд., Новосибирский государственный университет, 2003.
[LRS14] Lindgren G., Rootzén H., Sandsten M. Stationary Stochastic Processes for Scientists and Engineers. CRC Press (Taylor & Francis Group), 2014.